Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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950
FXUS65 KREV 182149
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
249 PM PDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy conditions are expected this weekend along with a cooling
trend, but the storm track will remain to our north. Rain and
mountain snow is likely for Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty winds
continuing. Temperatures will cool back to near average with this
storm. Another, stronger storm is likely for early next weekend
with active weather looking possible through the end of the month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A few light showers are evident on radar this afternoon, but
little precipitation is reaching the ground. This is due to the
system shearing and weakening as it moves onshore and the main
storm track remaining north of the region. Another weak front
shifts through the region Sunday afternoon-evening, but once again
falls apart as it moves inland. This may produce spotty light
showers, but again totals will be very low.

Gusty winds have materialized as expected this afternoon with peak
gusts mainly in the 30-40 mph range through valleys and ridges
gusting 70-90 mph. This is making for some mountain wave activity
and turbulence for aviation in addition to choppy conditions on
area lakes. Lake Wind Advisories remain in effect for Lake Tahoe
and Pyramid Lake. Winds will weaken overnight into Sunday, but
will remain breezy, especially in the afternoon.

There will be a bit of drying Monday ahead of a stronger incoming
system as the flow backs and drier air is entrained into the
region. This will limit precipitation totals as the first wave of
the storm reaches the region Monday night, but the stronger
secondary wave follows right behind for Tuesday. This will bring
deeper moisture into the area and also push a cold front through,
dropping snow levels in addition to bringing gusty winds. Snow
levels will start around 7000-8000 feet Monday night into Tuesday
morning falling to around 6500 feet by Tuesday afternoon. Travel
is likely to be impacted across Sierra passes by late Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon, but with the late-March sun angle,
snow on roadways will be quick to melt during any breaks in the
snow. Liquid totals in the Sierra are expected to be in the 1-2"
range, translating to 10-20 inches of snow along the Sierra crest,
up to 12 inches above 7000 feet, and up to 3 inches down to 6000
feet. For western Nevada, totals are likely to be 0.10-0.3".

Increasing mid level instability will produce a slight chance for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and have added this to the
forecast. If storms form, it may lead to snow pellet showers even
down to valley floors. Am not expecting storms to be widespread,
but it would be impossible to pinpoint locations at this point, so
have broad brushed the slight chances in the forecast. -Dawn


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Wet, unsettled weather continues through much of next week. Plan for
periods of gusty winds, along with rain and mountain snow.

Although there isn`t a distinct system between the Tuesday storm and
the Friday storm, it appears that several shortwaves along with the
moist, onshore flow will keep the chances for precipitation across
northern California and portions of western Nevada. Plan for periods
of heavier snow showers along the Sierra crest and the passes
through much of next week. The storms next week appear to be
relatively cold with snow levels around 6000 feet. We could see snow
on Nevada valley floors at times, especially with the convective
nature of the snow showers for midweek. The storm on Friday could be
a different story though.

The Friday storm is potentially stronger and wetter, as well as more
defined than the relatively weak shortwaves that will push through
midweek. This storm may pair up with a subtropical moisture tap to
produce more significant snow amounts in the Sierra along with the
potential for rain for western Nevada. This storm also appears to
linger through the weekend, so even if the precipitation intensities
aren`t too robust, the duration of the rain/snow could become a
problem. Forecaster confidence with this storm does remain low to
medium as some model simulations indicate the potential for a
splitting system, which would greatly limit precipitation amounts
for the Sierra and western Nevada. One thing in favor of this system
is that forecast models have trended towards the more consolidated
storm solution rather than the splitting solution. That being said,
we will be keeping a close eye on the storm for the end of the week,
especially since it will be rounding out a relatively wet-looking
week ahead. -Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy southwest winds will continue through this evening before
decreasing around 10pm tonight. Winds will increase again on Sunday
with peak wind gusts around 30 kts. For the Sierra, ridge wind
gusts will remain in the 40 to 50 knot range through early Monday.

A more significant system is expected Monday night into Wednesday
with MVFR and local IFR conditions likely along with increasing
ridgetop and surface winds. -Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
     in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
     NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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