Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 122035
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
135 PM PDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Below average temperatures are on tap through Saturday as a trough
moves over the West. Stronger easterly winds are likely at the
Sierra crest Friday night and Saturday as more intense surface
high pressure builds into the Great Basin. Warmer temperatures and
dry conditions are expected early next week followed by the
potential for cooler, wetter, and windy weather the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Lighter winds are keeping the denser smoke from ongoing wildfires in
California west of the Sierra crest today. Overall flow patterns and
high resolution models suggest that the eastern Sierra and western
Nevada should remain largely smoke free, however areas of haze are
still possible. Future potential smoke impacts will be decided by
how actively fires burn and day-to-day wind shifts.

Longwave trough remains over the west with a secondary piece of
energy rotating into the base of the trough on Friday. This will
bring a chance for light precipitation near the Oregon border, with
the potential for a light dusting of snow above 5000-5500 feet
Friday evening near Surprise Valley and across the Sheldon
National Refuge. Roads may be a bit slick, but with the bulk of
the moisture staying north, there shouldn`t be much accumulation.

This will also push a weak cold front through the region with
breezy northwest winds on Friday, especially for areas north of I-
80. Pyramid Lake tends to respond well to northwesterly winds and
choppy lake conditions should be expected on Friday. It`s
unlikely that speeds will reach advisory criteria, but anticipate
gusts of 25 to 30 mph on the lake.

As the trough exits and ridging begins to build into the west
this weekend, a strong surface high sets up over the Great Basin.
This will enhance the easterly gradient across the region,
especially along the Sierra. There is not significant upper
support for the winds, but enough to keep breezy east winds in the
forecast for Saturday, especially for the Sierra crest westward.
Gusts could reach the 60-80 mph range across the high Sierra crest
Saturday. The easterly flow will limit the initial warming trend,
but with winds shifting by Monday, high temperatures will jump to
a few degrees above normal.

Attention then turns to an atmospheric river making landfall into
the northwest and northern California late next week. It`s too early
for specifics, but at this point in time it looks like we`ll see
gusty winds by midweek with the best chances for precipitation the
end of the week predominately north of Highway 50. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions with some lingering haze from ongoing
wildfires in California. Smoke will not be as dense as it was
Wednesday due to lighter transport flow and a difference in wind
direction. However, some minor slantwise visibility restrictions
are possible.

Light easterly flow today will become northwesterly and increase
on Friday due to a cold frontal passage. The strongest winds will
be north of I-80 where surface gusts are likely to reach 20-25
kts. There may also be a brief period of wind shear along the
front Friday night. By Saturday, easterly flow returns with gusts
across Sierra ridges possibly reaching 55-70 kts.
-Dawn


&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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