Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 111125
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
325 AM PST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will bring gusty southwest winds this afternoon and
evening, and a chance of snow tonight. Periods of light snow
could bring slick travel conditions into Monday morning,
especially for the northern Sierra and western and west-central
Nevada. Slick conditions could impact travel in Mono County by
Monday night and Tuesday. Dry weather returns Tuesday, with
milder temperatures for mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Anyone with travel plans or commutes on Monday morning should be
prepared for the potential for snow and slick road conditions,
just in case.

* WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...simulations have reduced winds somewhat
  for this afternoon and evening, especially away from the
  immediate Sierra Front (Highway 395/I-580 corridor) and Tahoe
  Basin. For the Sierra Front and Tahoe Basin, wind gusts should
  still top out around 35-40 mph for many locations, with wind-
  prone areas including I-580 south of Reno reaching up to 50 mph.
  Farther east in the Basin and Range, the issue will be mixing.
  Temperatures have really fallen off this morning and, with
  increasing clouds and marginal flow for mixing late today it may
  be harder to scour out the colder air that has developed with
  radiational cooling. If winds kick up, they should be fairly
  short-lived as surface flow turns northerly this evening behind
  the cold front.

* SNOW TONIGHT...The cold front moving in tonight will be pretty
  moisture starved, although there should be just enough moisture
  and dynamics to get a quick burst of snow along the cold front.
  These "slider-type" systems often have sporadic areas of heavier
  snow banding. It looks like from around 6 PM until about
  midnight Monday will be the best chances for snow as atmospheric
  lift over the colder air invading in the post-frontal airmass is
  strongest. In the Reno-Sparks-Carson City-Minden areas, we
  should see anywhere from zero to 1 inch of snow...with a 30%
  chance for up to around 2 inches south of Reno.

  Further east towards Fallon-Yerington, Lovelock, and the
  Highway 50 corridor there is a decent chance of seeing some snow
  accumulations as well, up to 1 inch. Local amounts could reach 2
  inches or so out in Churchill County with some simulations
  showing a heavier band of precipitation. However, this will
  depend on temperatures and if those areas warm/mix this
  afternoon. If they do not, then chance will rise for more
  substantial snowfall.

Initially, the lowest valley floors may see more of a rain/snow
mix while foothill locations should be all snow. The cold front
will push through the region Monday morning, with a cool and brisk
day for all areas on Monday along with lingering light snow
showers. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal.
There is a slight chance we could see lake effect snow showers
Monday behind the front but this is very low confidence.


* MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT SNOW...Another shortwave trough
  moves down along the West Coast Monday Night. The upper level
  low moves over northern NV/CA, but a secondary wave swings
  around the Bay Area Monday Night, helping to increase the
  surface east winds over our area. This will set up a deformation
  zone in Mono County starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday
  morning, with favorable upslope flow that will increase clouds
  and precipitation over the Eastern Sierra. We`ve increased
  chances for snow and snow amounts for the Eastern Sierra (Mono
  and Alpine Counties) where we could see another several inches
  through Tuesday morning. -Snyder/Alex

.LONG TERM...Wednesday onward...

Better agreement exists in the most recent deterministic and
ensemble forecast model runs compared to the past few days. The
upper level low sitting over the southern California coast is kicked
eastward by an upstream trough that will brush through northern
Nevada on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A few light showers are
possible, but the best moisture and dynamics will be east into Utah.
Behind this feature, the eastern Pacific ridge begins to rebuild,
but looks to remain around 138W. This is far enough west to allow
for additional systems to drop into the Eastern Sierra and northern
Nevada from the north for the end of next weekend into early next
week. These systems would be on the dry side given the inland
trajectory and would keep temperatures closer to normal. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest winds are expected today ahead of a strong cold
front slated to shift through the region tonight. Wind gusts will
mainly be in the 25-35 kt range with the strongest winds anticipated
this afternoon and early evening. Turbulence is possible along with
expected wind shear from approximately 03Z-09Z tonight along the
frontal boundary. Winds transition to the north overnight and will
be northeasterly during the day Monday.

This front and associated "inside slider" upper level low bring the
potential for a brief burst of rain and snow Sunday night, with
spotty showers lingering into Monday morning. The most likely timing
for precipitation will be from 02-08Z along the surface front,
with a mix of rain and snow for the lower valleys, including KRNO
and KCXP, while mountain sites will be snow. This system is
moisture starved, so accumulations will be minimal if anything
(0-1"). The upper level front follows Monday morning, which will
coincide with colder air and snow levels falling to valley floors.
These showers will be hit or miss, with a 20% chance of one
impacting any of the terminal sites (0-1/2" of snow possible).
-Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST this
     evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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