Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 160836
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
136 AM PDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will intensify and maintain a warmer and drier
conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will be hot this
weekend into early next week with low chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will reinvigorate snowmelt for the
Carson and Walker River basins as well as the creeks and streams in
the Sierra for Mono and Inyo counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

High pressure amplifies across the southwest and into the Sierra and
western Nevada through the weekend into early next week. This will
result in temperatures running 10-15 degrees above average,
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as well as the
potential for renewed hydrology concerns due to snowmelt. For
details on the snowmelt concerns, check out the Hydrology section
below.

As high pressure ramps up across the southwest through the weekend
it will bring widespread hot temperatures to the West, including the
Sierra and western Nevada. Generally temperatures may reach into the
high 90s to low 100s by early next week, with the Reno airport
forecast to hit its first 100 degree day on Tuesday. Temperatures in
the higher terrain and the Sierra will be more tolerable with highs
in the upper 70s and 80s. The Sierra and western Nevada won`t be the
only areas affected by this heat wave. If you have travel plans
anywhere in CA, NV, and AZ through the weekend, please be prepared
for the heat risk! Heat illness will be a concern and people should
plan accordingly. Know the signs of heat illness, carry plenty of
water, and never leave children or pets in your car unattended for
even short periods of time. More information on heat safety can be
found at www.weather.gov/heat.

The next concern through the weekend is the potential for showers
and thunderstorms, especially for Mono and Inyo counties. While
model soundings continue to show an anomalous amount of precipitable
water for the Reno area (0.8 inches in June is almost a max
according to climatology), there doesn`t appear to be a trigger
mechanism to get decent convective development this afternoon in
the Interstate 80 corridor and Reno areas. Although we may only see
cumulus buildups areawide this afternoon for northern Nevada, we
did add some chances for thunderstorms for southern Mono county
and western Mineral county this afternoon. While the better
thunderstorm potential still remains to be on Saturday and Sunday
short term high resolution models are showing the potential for
some showers and thunderstorms in the Mono/Mineral convergence
zone this afternoon and evening. Saturday thunderstorms appear to
be confined to areas in Mono county from Leavitt Meadows
southward, and then on Sunday may spread as far north as Alpine
county and into the Tahoe basin by the evening. If you have
outdoor plans this weekend be prepared for the potential for
thunderstorms. Might be a good idea to get that hike done extra
early in the day before cumulus development in the early
afternoon. You don`t want to get caught out in a thunderstorm
since there is NO safe place outdoors when there is lightning.
-Edan

.LONG TERM...The week of June 18th

Next week will start with hot temperatures and potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as high pressure moves across
the Desert Southwest. By mid week, a rather strong jet stream for
June over the Pacific along 50N is forecast to drop south to about
45N. This should bring about 5-10 degrees of cooling and potential
for gusty afternoon winds Thursday and Friday.

For Monday-Wednesday, afternoon highs should climb to near and just
above 100 for the western NV valleys, with 80s and low 90s for the
Sierra and northeast California. If you`re planning to be outside
early next week, remember to bring extra water and take a couple
extra breaks in the shade.

Afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms remain
possible Monday to Wednesday. However the lack of a trigger outside
of surface based heating and convergence limits predictability.
These light wind and hot temperature situations favor storms
initially developing over the Sierra in the mid afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible over western Nevada in the early evening
hours. Main threats would be moderate to strong outflow winds with
brief heavy downpours.
-Brong

&&

.AVIATION...
The rest of this week will feature light winds and periods of mid
and high level clouds as an impressive moisture plume moves into the
Pacific Northwest.

Hot temperatures will lead to increasing density altitudes, strong
thermals and cumulus build ups along the Sierra Crest Friday with a
few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the Sierra crest
Saturday-Sunday. Brong

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Persistent heat and high overnight temperatures will lead to
progressively higher snowmelt rates in the remaining deep, high-
elevation snowpack. This time of year there is a competing balance
between the snowmelt rates and contributing area of snow
coverage. Lengthy days and very warm temperatures will create
conditions necessary for very high snowmelt rates. In many
basins, these high rates will have no or limited impacts due to
the relatively small remaining snow covered area. In contrast,
areas draining from high elevation terrain near the Sierra Crest
generally do have adequate remaining deep snowpack to sustain
high flows for area rivers.

The areas of highest concern are the Walker River system and
other creeks and streams draining from the Eastern Sierra into
Mono County. Flows of headwater creeks and streams are expected to
increase daily with peak flows occurring overnight or in the
early morning hours from the middle to the end of next week.
These flows are expected to match, or exceed, previous high flows
that occurred earlier this season. High flows are likely mid to
late next week farther downstream on the Walker River in Mason
Valley and beyond, but the magnitude is highly uncertain due to
reservoir management decisions and the timing of area reservoirs
reaching their capacities. While impactful flooding is not
expected on the Tahoe Basin stream or the forks of the Carson
River, very high flows are expected which could cause minor issues
and could be a risk to people recreating in the mountains.
Bardsley

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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