000
FXUS65 KREV 130946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Cooler, wetter, and more windy weather pattern has returned for the
weekend as a storm treks through the Sierra and western Nevada. Plan
on periods of rain and snow showers, some lightning, as well as
winds and much cooler temperatures. Showers will diminish Monday
with dry and more typical temperatures returning mid to late next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* An upper low off the CA coast will track slowly eastward across
  CA-NV this weekend and to the Four Corners region by late
  Monday. Another day of strong gusty winds today as the front
  surges eastward across the Sierra and western NV. Also, isolated
  to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with enhanced outflows
  possible across western NV. Finally, precipitation band across
  northeast CA/far northwest NV tonight may bring several inches
  of snow, primarily for locations above about 5000 feet.

* WINDS: One more day of strong winds as the upper level jet
  remains across western NV and gradients tighten ahead of the
  incoming surface front. S-SE winds will increase, especially
  across western NV this afternoon with sustained winds 30-40 mph
  likely from Hwy 95 eastward, including Hawthorne-Fallon. Strong
  cross winds can be expected, especially along I-80/Hwy 50 in the
  Basin and Range where some blowing dust may also reduce
  visibility below a mile at times. As the front moves eastward,
  winds will shift to the west and remain gusty for several hours
  into this evening.

* SHOWERS/STORMS: Coverage of showers will be greater today as the
  upper low begins to pivot inland. Showers will reach the Sierra
  this morning and spread into western NV during the afternoon as
  the cold front moves across the area. Sufficient instability
  (MLCAPE 250-500 J/KG) and shear (40-45 kts) exists for a 10-30%
  chance of lightning with a few strong cells capable of enhanced
  wind gusts to 50 mph based on straight lined hodographs and
  DCAPE 700-900 J/KG mid to late afternoon across western NV,
  especially Hwy 50 northward. Snow levels will remain high with
  the brunt of the precipitation (generally 6000-7000`) with some
  light accumulations possible at Sierra passes if a heavier
  shower passes. Snow accumulations in the higher Sierra (mainly
  above 8000`) will be on the order of 3-9" and this has not
  changed significantly over the past couple of days. Snow levels
  fall behind the front to around 4000-4500` tonight and early
  Sunday. So some light snow or a mix of light rain/snow could
  occur where showers linger.

* As the low tracks across NV, model data is focusing another band
  of precipitation along the northwest side across northeast
  CA/far northwest NV tonight through Sunday night. Our latest
  forecast indicated several inches of snow potential above
  4500-5000` north of a Susanville to Gerlach line with blended
  guidance showing a rather broad area where there is a 40-80%
  chance of greater than 4" of snow above 5000`. This could impact
  Sage Hen Summit along Hwy 395 north of Madeline. This band
  slowly weakens but could keep rain/snow showers going across the
  area into Sunday night.

* NEXT WEEK: Additional shortwave energy will help carve out
  another trough across the northern Rockies early to mid next
  week with latest ensemble members keeping much of the cooler air
  north and east of our region. This would favor dry conditions, a
  light northeast winds and a slow warmup. Still about 10 degrees
  of spread next week, but overall fairly quiet pattern setting
  up.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

*  Strong and gusty winds will continue producing mountain wave
   turbulence today with widespread gusts 25-35 kts. Winds will
   vary between SE-SW through midday, but there will be a notable
   shift to the west along the Hwy 395/I-580 corridor by mid
   afternoon and across much of western NV this evening as the
   front surges eastward. Stronger sustained winds will occur
   ahead of this front for KHTH-KNFL-KLOL where S-SE winds will
   peak late morning and afternoon, 25-35 kts with gusts 40-45kt.
   Areas of blowing dust across western Nevada may reduce
   visibility below 1SM at times.

*  Scattered to numerous showers will move to the Sierra this
   morning then spread into western NV as a cold front shifts
   eastward. A 10-30% chance of thunderstorms remains this
   afternoon, and like Friday, enhanced wind gusts to 45 kts may
   occur over western NV with stronger cells as they track quickly
   to the north.

*  Snow levels will remain above most terminals although they
   could dip briefly to Sierra terminal elevations in heavier
   showers. Expect periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR
   conditions in rain/snow showers for Sierra sites and brief
   mountain top obscuration and MVFR conditions at lower
   elevations.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
     NVZ001-004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT
     Sunday CAZ071.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ073.

&&

$$