Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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458
FXUS65 KREV 191021
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
321 AM PDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Mostly cloudy today with increasing winds on Monday. Rain and
mountain snow is likely for Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty
winds continuing. Another, stronger storm is likely for early
next weekend with active weather looking possible through the end
of the month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Moist southwest flow and a jet streak over northwest Nevada will
keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast today with mostly
cloudy skies and gusty ridge winds. Any showers that do form
today will be light with QPF measured in hundredths. Monday will
dry out a bit with an increase in surface winds as gradients begin
to tighten in response to the incoming trough. Wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph with ridge gusts around 70 mph can be expected.

The negatively tilted trough approaching the coast will allow
southerly flow over the region with warm air advecting in from the
south. Recent trend in the models has continued to enhance the
southerly flow which will keep snow levels higher through the
main precipitation event on Tuesday. Raised snow levels a bit
more tonight and might have to raise them more if the trend
continues.

Chances for precipitation begin to increase Monday night in the
Sierra as moisture begins to bank up against the mountains. The
heaviest precipitation is expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon. Precipitation amounts are still expected to be in the
1-2" range along the Sierra crest with around 0.1-0.3" for western
Nevada. With warmer southerly flow snow levels are forecast to
be in the 7000-7500 foot range during the heaviest precipitation.
Snow levels are expected to drop Tuesday night, however,
precipitation rates will be dropping off by then. Travel along
Sierra passes will likely be impacted by Tuesday, but if snow
levels continue to trend warmer, it may not be until late
afternoon of early evening before snow begins to stick to road
surfaces. -Zach


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Some adjustments in the long term this morning as the models are
becoming a little clearer. They are now showing more of a break
between the midweek system and the one late in the week.

For Wednesday, didn`t make too many changes as a cool, moist and
unstable airmass remains. There is a short wave that is expected to
move through which could result in more organized bands of
convective showers. With the cold pool aloft and 500 mb temps less
than -25 C, isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Snow levels
look to hover between 5000-5500 feet, but could be down to the
valley floors at times. General accumulations would be light with a
big BUT. In heavier convective showers, snow pellets can accumulate
quickly even on road surfaces with a quick inch or two.

The showers will wind down Wednesday evening behind the short wave
and warmer temps aloft move in. Left in the chance for some showers
Thursday to maintain continuity with previous forecast. However, I
did reduce the chances quite a bit and if current model trends hold,
it will be dry into Thursday night.

The Friday and Saturday storm is now moving through faster and
showing less of a split. It still has good subtropical moisture with
it, but it will be a quick hitter. Winds will increase ahead of it
Friday morning and be gusty with the bulk of the precip Friday
afternoon and evening now. Most of the precip looks to wind down
Saturday, but did leave in a few showers into Sunday as this is a
new idea. A trend back to slower timing or splitting is still
possible, although the ensembles are showing more support for the
latest solution. Wallmann

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy SW winds at times this afternoon and evening with gusts to 25
kts for most terminals while ridges gust to 50 kts. A few showers
will also impact the area mainly north of Susanville and Gerlach
after 22Z with isolated MVFR. Winds will diminish this evening at
the terminals, but continue on the ridges with mtn wave turbulence.
The chance for showers should also diminish after 06Z tonight with
general VFR conditions into Monday

A more significant system is expected Monday night into Wednesday
with MVFR and local IFR conditions likely along with increasing
ridgetop and surface winds. Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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