Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 132150
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

The first cold front of the Fall season will bring gusty winds
Thursday along with another chance for showers, or even a few
storms north of Highway 50. The cold front will bring much cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday, with a modest warm up for the
weekend. A stronger front is expected early next week for a
chance of showers, gusty winds, and much below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

One more round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
is underway as daytime heating combines with deformation around
the upper low near the central California coast to induce deep
convection. So far the convection has been mainly over the higher
terrain of the northern Sierra and the Sweetwater Range of Mono
County and extreme southeast Douglas County. However, as the
afternoon wears on into the evening, focus/convergence for storms
is simulated to leak out into western Nevada as a thermal gradient
between the convectively cooled areas in the Sierra and the
warmer/sunnier areas in the Basin induce a westerly wind push.
Instability is once again decent but shear is rather weak so most
storms should remain modest with outflow winds to 40 mph and perhaps
some very small hail...with one or two outliers possibly producing
stronger winds and a bit larger hail. All storms will be capable
of brief heavy rainfall, which could bring issues near burn scars
or steep terrain. A few showers could linger late tonight near
and south of I-80 near the system`s deformation axis.

Thursday, the current upper low slides east as it gets a kick by
another trough dropping into the Pacific Northwest. This will push
a cold front into northeast California Thursday afternoon and through
western Nevada Thursday night. This will bring gusty winds up to 35
mph tomorrow afternoon and evening; however, humidities are expected
to remain high enough that there is no major fire weather concern.
As far as precipitation, isolated to scattered showers will be
possible along and behind the front through Thursday night, with a
low chance for thunderstorms into evening north of Interstate 80
in far western NV and north of Highway 50 out in the Basin and Range.

Friday and Saturday, high pressure builds into the region for dry
conditions and below average temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s
for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

Sunday, winds increase again by afternoon as stronger low pressure
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Monday, the trough begins to
move in and the EC and GFS remain fairly cold; however, timing
discrepancies pop up with the GFS pushing a strong front through
Monday afternoon/evening while the EC is more like Tuesday. Either
way, Monday looks windiest with gusts 40-50 mph in the valleys
and perhaps 80-90 mph over exposed Sierra ridges.

Much below average temperatures, about 15-20 degrees or so, are
expected behind the FROPA for Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight
lows will be quite chilly so many outlying valleys in western
Nevada could see a frost if not light freeze. If you have
vegetation sensitive to freezing temperatures, it would be wise
to keep abreast of the forecast low temperatures next week;
generally, if the forecast is for lows below 40 you should be
prepared to protect sensitive vegetation.

As far as precip, the front overall is rather dry, typical for
September this far south. Most of the moisture resides behind the
front with showers most likely north of Highway 50. Any amounts
would be light, generally up to a quarter inch which could fall as
snow above 7000-7500 feet. -Snyder/Wallmann

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds to 35 kts, heavy rain (which could obscure higher
terrain or bring brief MVFR VIS), and small hail will be the
primary threats from any thunderstorms through this evening for
northeast CA, the eastern Sierra, and western NV.

Thursday afternoon and evening, a cold front will approach with
showers and a few thunderstorms (mainly north of I-80 far western
NV and Highway 50 out towards KLOL/KNFL) ahead of the front. Winds
will be gusty in the afternoon/evening, generally up to 30 kts
from the southwest and west. Expect some light to moderate mtn
wave turbulence at times until the front clears the area Thursday
night/early Friday. -Snyder/Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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