Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 152241
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm the next few days with dry conditions
expected through Saturday. Another strong cold front will move
through the region Sunday into Sunday night bringing snow showers
and much colder temperatures for the start of next week. The
temperatures early next week are likely to be the coldest of the
season.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A bluebird day outside currently with clear skies and light winds,
although temps are a few degrees below average for mid-February.
Another quiet day is expected tomorrow with temperatures warming a
few degrees with highs close to average after a cold night.

Increasing confidence for the late weekend cold front with high
confidence in much colder air, likely to be the coldest of the
season by early next week. Confidence is also increasing some
light snowfall across much of NE California and Western NV for
Sunday night behind the cold front. Model solutions are
converging, more toward the EC solutions with regards to a solid
slider, but a bit slower and more like the GFS timing.

Saturday will continue be dry with the warmest temperatures of the
period, likely near 60 in Western NV and the low 50s in Sierra
Valleys. Then things begin to change Saturday night as the front
slowly works its way south to the Oregon Border. Winds aloft
increase which will keep temps mild in many valley locations.
These winds will get gusty after midnight and likely continue
through the day Sunday as the cold front moves through. Wind
advisories will need to be considered by future shifts.

Then the change comes with the cold front moving through during
the day Sunday. Around sunrise Sunday, it is expected to be
through the Surprise Valley, then be near or south of Highway 50
by mid-afternoon. It will push through Mono and Mineral Counties
by 10 pm. Highs will likely be in the morning for areas near and
north of Highway 50 as temps will fall behind the cold front.

As for precip, it is expected to be post-frontal. The best chances
will generally be during the afternoon and evening, and it will be
almost all snow. Snow levels are expected to be near the valley
floors by the time the precip starts. That said, amounts are
expected to be light, 3 inches or less, as the system does not
have much moisture to work with. Of course, the brief period of
strong forcing in the post-frontal airmass will be efficient at
squeezing out what`s there. X

.LONG TERM...President`s Day through Thursday...

Showers taper off Monday as strong cold air advection continues.
Winds will continue to be breezy with gusts generally 20 to 30
mph Monday into Monday night. Perhaps more concerning will be
temperatures for Monday which happen to be the coldest forecast
this season. Wind chill temperatures Monday morning will be in the
single digits for western Nevada and will be a concern for those
outdoors. Fortunately, due to the holiday on Monday, this concern
will be more limited than usual. High temperatures will likely
struggle to get above freezing for western Nevada later in the
day.

Tuesday will be the coldest morning, but wind chills should not be
as much of a factor. Still this will be a concern for those
outdoors again...especially for those waiting at bus stops - plan
accordingly.

Models are in decent agreement with the transient ridge Tuesday
and Wednesday with weak high pressure over the region. While
temperatures will be cold, they will not be as cold as Monday and
Tuesday. However, models begin to diverge with placement of low
pressure late next week. Both EC and GFS dig low pressure off-
shore, but the 12Z GFS ejects the low pressure into the central
Sierra by Thursday. The 18Z GFS favors a similar solution like the
12Z EC keeping low pressure off-shore longer, but ends up wetter
than the EC. As such, slight chances have been removed for
Thursday with the more westward track of the following low. Boyd

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light winds through 18Z Saturday. Some east winds near
KCXP in the afternoons from 19-01Z today and Friday. Winds will
increase Saturday night ahead of the next storm with peak gusts
35-40 kts at terminals after 06Z Sun into Sunday afternoon. Some
LLWS with mtn wave turbulence is likely, especially from 06-18Z
Sunday.

SHSN will progress south during the day Sunday with light
accumulations possible. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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