Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 121112
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
312 AM PST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Light snow this morning will bring areas with snow-covered roads
in western Nevada and northeast California. Slick conditions
could impact travel in Mono County tonight into Tuesday morning.
Another weak weather system could bring a few light showers
Wednesday night before dry weather returns for the rest of the
week. Below average temperatures will rise to near average by
Wednesday. A cold system looks possible by next Sunday or Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Another wave over northeast California is moving south around the
upper low centered near the Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho border.
Per cameras and radar returns, light snow has broken out between
Susanville-Gerlach and Reno ahead of the wave. Light snow should
continue to advance south into the northern Sierra and across the
rest of western Nevada this morning. Most areas should see only
1/2" of snowfall or less; however, high resolution simulations
(HRRR) continue to indicate a lake effect snow band developing to
the south of Pyramid Lake and a concentrated area of snow (perhaps
a combination of lake effect and convergence forcing/lift) in
Douglas County and near South Lake Tahoe this morning. Therefore,
narrow bands of higher snowfall totals to 2" are possible south
and east of Lake Tahoe and between Pyramid Lake and I-80 west of
Fernley.

With temperatures below freezing, slick and lightly snow-covered
roads are likely for a good number of places. In fact, cameras in
the North Valleys of Reno are already showing snow sticking to
Highway 395. BOTTOM LINE: be prepared for a slower-than-usual
commute this morning in western Nevada. Slow down and leave some
distance between you and the car in front of you in case you hit a
slick spot.

This afternoon and tonight, the upper wave moves south into Mono
County. With easterly upslope flow and the disturbance, snow
showers are expected in the Sierra and along Highway 395 in Mono
County. Check with CALTRANS and be prepared for slick roads and
chain/snow tire restrictions, especially after sunset.

Tuesday, the upper low elongates as it drops south into central
and southern California, with a trough axis extending northeast
into south-central Nevada. Other than a few residual snow showers
in southern Mono County, it should be dry across the region.
Afternoon temperatures will remain near or slightly below (around
5 degrees) average Tuesday...a notable thing these days as highs
have been generally 10-20 degrees above average for most of the
past 2 weeks. -Snyder

.LONG TERM...Wednesday onward...

Model agreement has continued the trend that began yesterday with
another shortwave trough dropping out of the north through Nevada
on Wednesday. The best moisture and dynamics remain across
northern into eastern Nevada; however, this feature does bring
renewed chances for light snow showers. Presently, the most likely
places for travel impacts would be for areas near the Oregon
border across into the central Nevada Basin and Range.

Upper level ridge tries to build back into the West Coast for the
end of the week, but this is short-lived. Jet energy digs another
wave down from the Gulf of Alaska through Canada which continues
south along the West Coast, retrograding the ridge westward. This
increases winds over the weekend as a strong cold front pushes
through the region from the north. Operational model trends have
been taking this system farther west, though ensembles still have
a decent amount of spread on exactly where the trough axis will
end up.

Given the initial origins of the system over the Gulf of Alaska,
it has moisture to work with but it still lacks a deep Pacific
moisture tap, meaning there are chances for snow, but this is
unlikely to be a major winter storm. What does look more certain
is the very cold air mass associated with this system and
increasing negative temperature anomalies. High temperatures at
the start of next week have the potential to be 10-15 degrees
below normal. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

After the initial band of snow this morning with up to 1/2" of
accumulation, a few light snow showers remain possible through
today, with a 20% chance of one impacting a terminal site. Little to
no accumulation is expected from these light showers later this
morning into this afternoon. Better chances for snow exist for KMMH
this evening from approximately 22z-06z, with up to 2 inches of
accumulation possible. Snow showers will be hit or miss otherwise
with periods of lowering ceilings and visibility along with mountain
obscuration.

Winds will be transitioning to the north then northeast today and
generally peak gusts will reach 15-20 kts by this afternoon.
Stronger winds to develop across the Sierra crest overnight into
Tuesday morning with gusts reaching up to 50 kts. This will lead to
turbulence along and downwind of the Sierra. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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