Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 232137
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
237 PM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017
An active weather pattern will continue through early next week as
a couple of springtime storms bring mountain snow and valley rain.
There will likely be travel impacts in the Sierra Friday through
early Saturday and again Sunday and Monday. Winds will be gusty
at times with periods of rough lake waters and turbulent flying.
The first of two storms will push into the west coast tonight with
clouds overspreading the region. Rain and snow will then reach the
northern Sierra late tonight before spreading south along the
Sierra into Mono County and spilling over into western NV during
the day as the cold front and upper trough work into the area.
Snow levels may be down to lake level or around 5000-5500 feet
initially in the morning with some light accumulations. But snow
levels will rise slightly ahead of front and combined with sun
angle for late March, much of the daytime accumulation will
affect Sierra roads above 6500-7000 feet. As the cold front works
into the area late in the day, snow levels will begin to fall and
allow for some snow accumulation down to lake level as well as
Fredonyer Summit and Yuba Pass farther north Friday evening and
night. Highway 395 down through Mono County will likely stay
mostly shadowed and wet for the daytime Friday but that area could
see a few inches Friday night before snow diminishes in the wake
of cold front and trough. Total snowfall for the higher Sierra
will be in the 10 to 20 inch range overall with QPF ranging from
1.5" along the crest, 0.75-1.00" from Lake Tahoe north along
Highway 89, and generally 0.10-0.25" elsewhere as spillover will
be limited to a quick burst with the front.
Winds will increase across ridges tonight and remain strong Friday
and Friday night. Surface winds will become gusty in the Tahoe
Basin Friday morning before winds spread to lower western NV
valleys during the afternoon. Gusts will generally be in the 30-40
mph range with strongest gusts along the Highway 395 corridor
although there could be a brief period of slightly stronger winds.
Precipitation and winds decrease for Saturday in between systems.
Temperatures will be near normal for Friday and about 5 degrees
cooler Saturday. Hohmann
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
The active weather pattern continues into the start of next week as
the next storm is poised to impact northern California and Nevada
Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Main changes were to further
increase QPF and chances for precip Sunday night into Monday. The
GFS and ensembles have latched onto the closed/cut-off low solution
with the EC showing a more progressive pattern and slower formation
of a cut-off. Have continued a trend towards the GFS solution due to
its ensemble support and the EC`s convergence towards a closed low
solution. As such this would prolong precipitation amounts and
duration through Monday.
Snow levels look to reside in the 6,000-6,500` level on Sunday
before lowering to around 5,000 feet Monday night. This could result
in travel delays and chain controls for most Sierra passes
particularly Sunday night and Monday morning when the bulk of the
moisture is expected to move through.
Instability will remain elevated through Monday afternoon as the
core of the upper low positions across western Nevada. So we will
likely would see widespread rain and snow showers throughout the
area until the low departs Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Thereafter, it appears we get a short break during the day on
Wednesday before we get another quick moving shortwave trough to
swing through late Wednesday into Thursday. At this point, will go
with a conservative increase in pops as predictability also
decreases with intensity and track of closed lows during the
VFR conditions through 12Z Friday after which an incoming storm will
begin to increase winds and turbulence along and east side of the
Sierra through Friday. Winds across ridgetops could see gusts of 80+
knots and increasing mountain wave turbulence by early Friday
afternoon. Gusts to 35-40 kts possible for valley locations with
some localized areas of LLWS.
Snow levels Friday will be near 6500 feet with some slushy snow
accumulation possible more toward the late afternoon evening for
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH. Snow levels will fall to near 5,000 feet early Saturday
morning but most shower activity will begin to taper off by then.
Mountain obscuration can also be expected after 12Z Friday as the
system approaches and clouds increase. Fuentes
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 4 AM PDT Saturday
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PDT Saturday
above 5500 feet in CAZ071.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 4 AM PDT Saturday
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