Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 110950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017


Drier conditions are expected today through early next week.
A dry front moving through the region Monday will increase fire
weather concerns as afternoon winds become breezy. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above average through at least the
middle of next week.



The upper low that has been the focal point for thunderstorms has
lifted out of the region. Mid level moisture will plummet over the
next few days with only lingering partly cloudy skies towards the
Oregon border today.

Otherwise, surface flow and other atmospheric parameters return
to background, typical summer patterns. Afternoon zephyr winds
will begin to increase a little by Sunday afternoon as a dry front
approaches the region. Temperatures will trend slightly above
seasonal averages with Saturday being the warmest day through the

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

The only significant change to the inherited extended portion of the
forecast was made to Monday. Models are in good agreement that a
weak cool front will slide southeast across much of the forecast
area Monday before losing steam late in the day and becoming
diffuse. The GFS is a little slower pushing this front southeast and
it therefore crosses the northern part of the forecast area later in
the day. This would allow time for more heating and thus the
possibility of convection. As this is a relative new
development...and the ECMWF is faster with the front...we will
refrain from adding much in the way of showers and thunderstorms
just yet and see how the system unfolds in later guidance.

Minor cooling Monday and Tuesday should be followed by gradual
warming Wednesday and Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
There are hints in the GFS of another area of weak low pressure
moving into the region Thursday. This may kick off more
convection...but it has very limited support in the ensemble model
guidance. For now we will not add thunderstorms to Thursday.



VFR conditions with generally light winds will prevail today
through the weekend. Afternoon zephyr winds will increase to
around 20-25kts Saturday with more consistent gusts around 25 kts
for Sunday afternoon. Higher gusts around 30kts will be possible
Monday as a dry front moves through the region. Boyd


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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