Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 181052
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
352 AM PDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions are expected this weekend along with a cooling
trend, but the storm track will remain to our north. Rain and
mountain snow is likely for Tuesday into Wednesday with gusty
winds continuing. Temperatures will cool back to near average with
this storm. Another, stronger storm is possible for early next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Few changes made to the short term with the storm track remaining
into the Pacific Northwest. A couple cold fronts will try to move
through this evening and Sunday evening, but they will be rapidly
weakening as they come through. The main impact from the
approaching weak cold fronts will be gusty winds during the
afternoons and evenings and strong winds on the ridges.

For today, expect the winds to pick up early this afternoon with
peak gusts around 30-40 mph. They may be a bit stronger near the
Oregon border closer to the front and the more robust winds aloft.
Overall though, the forecast is on track and kept the Lake Wind
Advisories in place. As far as showers, they should remained
confined to areas north of Truckee and Gerlach. Those that do
occur will be light.

After another mild night tonight due to the cloud cover, a repeat
is expected Sunday with a couple changes. Enough moisture and weak
instability will be present as far south as Highway 50 with
isolated showers possible. The second is that the winds will be a
little bit weaker aloft for lighter winds at the surface. Peak
gusts will be 25-35 mph in most valley locations.

The showers will likely continue into Sunday evening before some
drying into Monday morning. This will be in response to the flow
amplifying a bit ahead of the Tuesday-Wednesday storm. Showers
will increase at least in the Sierra by Monday afternoon as that
storm approaches. Winds will continue to be breezy and temps will
remain about 10 degrees above average. Wallmann

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Weather next next week will be very different then this past
week...welcome to spring. Much cooler temperatures with periods of
wind, rain, and mountain snow all on tap.

The first storm is expected to arrive late Monday night into
Tuesday with a colder reinforcing shot Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The heaviest precipitation is still expected on
Tuesday, but the bigger disruption to travel may be on Tuesday
night or Wednesday. Snow levels will start around 7500 Tuesday
morning, falling to around 6500 feet Tuesday night, with
accumulating snow probable on Sierra passes. Still expecting QPF
along the crest of around 1-1.5" with most of the precipitation
falling with snow levels of 6500` or higher. Convective snow
showers and lower snow levels Wednesday could bring accumulating
snow down to around 5500 feet. Convective snow showers are the
type where it can be sunny one minute and snowing very hard the
next. It is impossible to say exactly where these showers will
happen, but we can say the environment is conducive for their
development.

Moist onshore flow and a cold unstable atmosphere will keep the
possibility of convective showers in the forecast Thursday,
especially in the Sierra.

Another, potentially wetter, system is expected to impact the
region around the Friday time period. This system continues to
show a stronger subtropical moisture tap as well as relatively
cold airmass. The main question with this storm remains to be if
it will arrive as a strong consolidated storm or split as it
arrives. There are signs of splitting potential with a more
amplified wave pattern and atmospheric river tools showing
stronger moisture influx into southern California. Models have
been fairly consistent, for a storm a still a week out, with a
more consolidated system. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...
Increased winds aloft with ridge winds near 45 kts. Some LLWS near
the Sierra this morning thru 18Z that will abate this afternoon
with better mixing. Peak SFC wind gusts this afternoon and evening
to 35 kts from the SW. However, moderate mtn wave turbulence will
remain likely through tonight. The winds at the surface and aloft
do weaken a bit tonight so LLWS does not look to return tonight.
A repeat of the breezy winds for Sunday with peak SFC wind gusts
to 30 kts from the SW.

Expect mainly VFR conditions into Sunday with CIGS primarily 8000
feet and above. However, near the Oregon border local MVFR CIGS
are possible in -SHRA after 21Z this afternoon. A more significant
system is expected Monday night into Wednesday with MVFR and local
IFR conditions likely. Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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