Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 111002
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
202 AM PST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving shortwave today will bring breezy conditions,
especially north of Interstate 80, with very light precipitation
possible for areas near the Oregon border. Dry conditions with
slightly above average temperatures will return for the weekend,
with more active weather for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The next shortwave pushes through the Pacific Northwest today and
tonight bringing breezy winds as well as some mid to high level
clouds. Although the winds may not mix down to all valley floors, it
is likely that the foothills and ridges will become quite gusty late
this afternoon and evening with ridge wind gusts of 70 to 90 mph.
Winds may also create hazardous boating conditions at Lake Tahoe
late this afternoon and overnight with wind gusts forecast between
25 to 35 mph at times.

Much of the precipitation associated with this shortwave will
remain north of the Sierra and western Nevada, with only small
chances for showers across northeast California, mainly near the
Oregon border, but the best moisture and dynamics remain north in
Oregon and Idaho.

High pressure builds across the West for the end of the week through
the weekend with dry and mild conditions. Light winds will prevail
along with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s (is it
January or what?) These mild conditions won`t last long as high
pressure begins to buckle by late Sunday night into Monday. Check
out the long term discussion for more on increased chances for
precipitation. -Edan


.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...

Next week continues to look active with multiple systems progged to
move into the west coast. There is still some question as to exactly
where the systems and deepest moisture will make landfall along the
west coast. The most recent model/ensemble trends have been hinting
at the moisture feed working from the Pacific Northwest south into
California and Nevada over the course of the week. Atmospheric river
forecast tools would also indicate this potential, though still
favor deepest moisture in the 40N-45N region compared to 35N-40N.

The first of these waves arrives early next week, followed by a
second wave the middle of the week, and a stronger system for the
end of the week. Initially, snow levels will remain high with the
region on the warm side of the jet, but there is decent model
support for a cold area of low pressure to set up off the Pacific
Northwest coast, with the trough elongating south. This could be the
key feature to drive snow levels down toward the end of the week and
does line up with a continuing moisture tap in many simulations.
Longer range guidance shows that the series of troughs moving into
the west will continue through the end of the month. This also
agrees with the 8-14 day CPC outlook which is showing odds in
favor for wetter and colder weather.

Bottom line is this: While there is uncertainty in the exact details
of these storms, a wet and potentially windy pattern is looking
probable. Travel could be impacted at times from the middle through
nearly the end of the month, so check back for updates. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions with increasing mid and high level clouds
today as a shortwave moves through the Pacific Northwest. The one
exception will be localized areas of fog in some Sierra valleys,
including KTRK in the Martis Valley through 16z this morning.

The wave will bring increasing westerly winds with speeds at 10k
feet MSL sustained around 40-60 kts, strongest near the Oregon
border. This is likely to bring turbulence and mountain wave
activity along and downwind of the Sierra. Winds are also expected
to mix down to valleys, but with peak gust speeds mainly 20-30 kts.
Strongest winds are anticipated from 18z Thursday to 06z Friday.

A few very light showers are possible near the Oregon border today
and tonight, but best chances for rain/snow remain well to the
north.

The weekend will be dry with widespread VFR conditions as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region, though morning fog in a few
Sierra valleys remains a possibility. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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