575
FXUS62 KMFL 122349
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
749 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...


.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Deep layered high pressure over Florida and extending both east and
west across the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters is forecast to
continue to shift west through rest of this weekend, as a mid level
trough just off the Carolinas shifts southward into the western
Atlantic through Sunday. This trough will essentially split the
subtropical high, with the western portion of the high moving west
and extending from the southern U.S. to the eastern Gulf by Sunday.
The N/NW flow on the east side of the high will cause the trough to
cut off from the westerly flow north of 30N and move south to along
or just off the Florida east coast on Sunday.

This afternoon into tonight low/mid level wind flow across South
Florida will be lighter and more variable in direction than the past
couple of days, which coupled with increasing precipitable water
(PWAT) values in the 1.9-2.0 inch range should result in a wider
distribution of showers and thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop and affect
South Florida this afternoon before slowly dissipating through the
evening hours. Instability parameters this afternoon look similar to
the past few days, with CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg and 500 mb
temps in the -8 to -9C range. This should once again support a few
strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon over the interior,
as well as frequent to even excessive lightning at times with the
strongest thunderstorm clusters.

On Sunday, the mean deep layer wind flow becomes N/NW, a fairly rare
direction for July, as the surface high center sets up over the
eastern Gulf and a disturbance begins to form near the NW Bahamas.
With PWAT values expected to continue increasing to around or just
over 2 inches, showers and thunderstorms should once again become
widespread by afternoon and continue into the early evening, with
interior and eastern areas favored. Even though mid level
temperatures appear to warm slightly (thereby decreasing
instability), northerly mid level flow in the summer usually means a
decent chance of strong to marginally severe storms, and Sunday
should be no exception to this general rule.

Locally heavy rainfall will once again accompany the more persistent
convective clusters both today and Sunday, and HREF LPMM values this
afternoon are in the 3-5 inch range over the interior which
represent potential high-end rainfall amounts. Sunday`s heavy
rainfall could set up closer to metro SE Florida as afternoon storms
move towards the east coast. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicated a broad marginal risk of
excessive rainfall across South Florida, which is reasonable given
the synoptic pattern. General rainfall amounts on Sunday range from
0.5"-1" but with localized high-end amounts likely exceeding 2
inches across the interior and eastern areas. These amounts falling
in a short time period could lead to localized flooding.

High temperatures both this afternoon and Sunday should be in the
lower to mid 90s over most areas except around 90 east coast metro
areas. Heat Index readings could approach heat advisory levels, but
enough uncertainty exists with regards to exact timing of convective
initiation which would limit the duration of high heat index values.
Nevertheless, persons are urged to take actions to keep hydrated and
avoid prolonged exposure to the outdoors.

Lows will also be warm over the metro areas where they will be in
the mid to upper 70s making the heat index feel like the lower to
mid 80s due to the high humidity. The interior areas will fall down
into the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The main story for South Florida through mid-week will be the
disturbance that is forecast to move over Florida Monday and Tuesday
from the Northwest Atlantic waters. The GFS and its ensembles have
been a bit more defined/stronger with the low than the ECMWF suite,
but regardless it appears that a wet and stormy pattern is in store
for the first half of next week. NAEFS mean PWAT values are forecast
to be around the 90th percentile, in the 2.1-2.3" range, through
Wednesday. With the disturbance still to our east on Monday, the
wind flow will remain N/NE, then shift to SE/S Tuesday and Wednesday
as the disturbance moves across the peninsula and into the Gulf by
Wednesday. This weather pattern will lead to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over South Florida with heavy rainfall Monday through
Wednesday. More on this potential heavy rainfall in the hydro
section below.

NHC has also put a 20 percent chance of development on the
disturbance over the Western Atlantic waters for the next 7 Days
over Northwest Atlantic extending into the Northeast Gulf waters.
Will continue to monitor the latest outlooks from the NHC through
the weekend and into early next week on this disturbance.

Temperatures will be held down some by clouds and precipitation
Monday through Wednesday, with highs likely staying in the 80s to
perhaps near 90F. This will keep the heat index readings mostly in
the 90s each day. Lows each night will be in the 70s, except around
80 along the east coast metro areas.

Second Half Of Next Week...
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west and reach the
central Gulf during the second half of next week. In its wake, high
pressure should then rebuild from the western Atlantic across the
Florida peninsula. The resultant E/SE wind flow will begin to bring
PoPs closer to climatological normals but still a bit on the high
side, with a return to a typical east flow diurnal pattern of
precipitation.

Highs could again increase some Thursday and Friday to lower to mid
90s over most areas, except around 90 east coast areas. This will
allow for the heat index reading to get back up to the 100 to 105
range and near heat advisory conditons for Broward and Miami-Dade
Counties. Lows will remain in the 70s, except around 80 east coast
metro areas each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions will return tonight and prevail through around 15Z.
Winds will be light and variable through much of the forecast
period, except for Sunday afternoon. APF may again experience
westerly winds after 16Z with the Gulf breeze moving inland.
Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible after 17Z with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

he synoptic pattern and weak pressure gradient through Tuesday
means that winds and seas should be light, but increasing coverage
of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period will result
in periods of higher wind and seas over all local waters. High
pressure rebuilding by Wednesday will increase winds slightly out of
the E/SE, but should still remain below caution levels.

&&

.BEACHES...

The rip current risk will remain low through Tuesday, then perhaps
increase to moderate levels at the Atlantic beaches beginning on
Wednesday. The main threat at all area beaches will be occasional to
frequent lightning strikes during periods of rainfall which will
increase Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Broad low/mid level cyclonic flow around the disturbance, combined
with the very high moisture values, will result in periods of
rainfall at most times of the day, not just during peak diurnal
cycles.

The wind flow on Monday will be light due to a northerly in the
upper levels and a light southerly flow at the surface. The 500 mb
temp will also be around -4 to -5C which is warm for this time of
year. This means that there could be nearly stationary showers and
thunderstorms on Monday over South Florida which will exceed 1 inch
over most of the area, with high-end amounts in excess of 3 inches,
in some areas perhaps quite a bit higher. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook is currently showing a slight risk of flooding over South
Florida for Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday`s rainfall amounts could be similar, if not
even higher in some areas, as the wind flow shifts to S/SE direction
allowing for deep tropical moisture to work into the region keeping
the very high moisture values in place. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook has put South Florida in a Slight Risk Of Flooding for
Tuesday and Marginal Risk of Flooding for Wednesday.

At this time, it looks like rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through
Wednesday. There could even be higher amounts with the storms train
or sit over the same area. If these trends continue in later
forecast through the weekend, but a Flood Watch may be needed for
South Florida for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  92  76  87 /  20  80  50  90
West Kendall     76  93  74  88 /  30  70  40  90
Opa-Locka        76  92  76  87 /  20  80  50  90
Homestead        77  90  75  87 /  20  70  50  80
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  77  86 /  20  80  50  80
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  76  87 /  20  80  50  80
Pembroke Pines   77  92  76  88 /  20  80  50  90
West Palm Beach  75  92  75  88 /  20  90  60  90
Boca Raton       77  92  75  87 /  20  80  60  80
Naples           77  91  78  88 /  20  60  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...17