Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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833
FXUS66 KSTO 301046
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
346 AM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and mainly dry weather today and Friday. A slight cooling
trend starting this weekend and continuing through the week.
Isolated late day thunderstorms possible over the Sierra Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures this morning running a little cooler than 24 hours
ago after running a few to several degrees cooler Wednesday. Weak
troughing will continue over the west coast today. The onshore
surface gradient this morning is similar to 24 hours ago resulting
in a similar delta breeze. With similar airmass and delta
influence todays highs should come in similar to Wednesday or
about 10 degrees above normal. Afternoon Sierra thunderstorms
remained south and east of the forecast area Wednesday and with
upper level southwest flow this will likely remain the case today.
Models in good agreement in developing a weak low centered
somewhere near the Bay Area coast by Friday afternoon. Overall
cooling with this very weak system will be minimal. A more
southerly flow aloft over the Sierra may bring the biggest impact
as monsoonal moisture gets pulled farther northward bringing a
slight threat of afternoon thunderstorms. Model precipitation
proggs differ but MAM and GEM bring precipitation northward as far
as Lassen Park. Elsewhere from the Sierra...mainly fair skies
will prevail with only a slight cooling. South to southeast flow
aloft continues through the night so have left in a shower threat
over the Sierra through the nighttime hours. Weak upper low
shifts inland on Saturday which should shunt any Sierra
thunderstorms back south and east again although a few showers may
still be possible south of the Tahoe area. A cooler airmass should
bring a more significant cool off by Saturday afternoon but
daytime highs will still remain a few degrees above normal. Weak
upper trough and onshore flow will keep the slow cooling trend
going on Sunday and into the week. Otherwise expect generally dry
and stable conditions.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)


A weak upper trough will persist over the Pacific Northwest into
early next week, resulting in dry weather and near normal
temperatures. Expect high temperatures in the 90s across the
Valley, with 70s and 80s over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Light winds generally below 10
kts, except occasional SW wind gusts near the Delta region. The
Delta Breeze will increase again this afternoon and evening.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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