Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 280525
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
925 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Synopsis...
Mild Thanksgiving will give way to a wet Friday and weekend.
Slick roads and snow above 6000 feet may cause travel delays.
Unfortunately a lot of uncertainty remains with next storm system
arriving sometime in the Monday through Thursday time frame, periods
of wet weather are possible next week.

&&

.Discussion...(Tonight through Sunday)
Tonight temperatures are running cooler and we dont have the high
clouds that we had last night. Some fog is starting to set up in
places from the Central Sacramento Valley southward. Areas of fog
looks likely to form in the overnight hours and could become dense
in some places...especially near the central part of the valley.

On Friday Some precipitation will be possible over the far
northwestern part of the state in the morning and may spread and
start to precipitate along the coastal range from around Lake
County northward and over northern half of the Sacramento valley.
There continues to be some timing differences but models do agree
on bringing precipitation to the coastal range and far northern
part of the interior. There is agreement on a jet moving over the
far north so would not be surprised to see some rain start early
during the day on Friday for the Northern Sacramento Valley.

Snow levels will be high for the onset of precipitation through
Friday evening but may lower below major pass trans-sierra levels
late Friday night to impact travel with several inches of snow
through Saturday. For Sacramento area and south the models are pointing
towards the start of rain from the evening hours to late at night
or early Saturday morning for the far southern sections of the CWA
in the Northern San Joaquin Valley. What is interesting is that
the Models are in agreement on bringing moderate rainfall to the
southern half of the Sacramento valley late Friday and Saturday
morning as the jet will be aloft over that area during that time
period.

Some colder air will move over the region Saturday night with
scattered showers likely lingering...mostly in the mountains.
Another weaker wave will move through on Sunday and looks to
impact the southern CWA more than the north as far as
precipitation amounts are concerned. This may bring a half foot of
snow below pass levels with slightly higher amounts over the crest.


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Models showing brief ridge building over NorCal Monday...have
lowered precip chances a few percent to show this trend. May need
to lower more in the future if models continue with this drier
solution. Euro and Gfs diverge on Tuesday/Wednesday with GFS
faster and wetter than Euro. Will keep a blend of the two going
with slight weighting to the wetter GFS. Roles are reversed
Thursday/Friday as Euro shows a wet system moving through
California with the GFS much drier. Needless to say much
uncertainty and low confidence exists in the extended forecast
especially with timing. Although...the pattern is shifting to a
much wetter one.


&&

.Aviation...

BKN-OVC high clouds today. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog will persist
through about 18z today across portions of the Central Valley,
otherwise VFR conditions with generally light winds expected
across TAF sites Thanksgiving. Local MVFR/IFR conditions are possible around
Sacramento and Stockton aft 10z until 18z Friday. Lowering
ceilings and precipitation possible with areas of MVFR conditions by Friday
afternoon around KRDD and KRBL.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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