Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260013
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
713 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016


.AVIATION...
Storms flared up around 23z but now lightning counts falling
rapidly with only a few TSRA left mainly north of a 11R-IAH-6R3
line and moving north with seabreeze. Storms should continue this
weakening trend over the next hour or so and probably be over with
by 02z altogether. Over the Gulf will see showers continue and
spread northwest toward the BYY-PSX area through 06-09z. Some
patchy MVFR CIGS of 1500-2000FT possible in the west though
confidence isn`t very high that it will develop between 10-15z.
Ridging evident on WV and model progs nosing into the area from
the ENE overnight/early Sunday and so expect less coverage and
probably focused closer to BYY-SGR-66R during the afternoon.
Convective temperatures may be more difficult to reach in main
hubs and so will probably only see SHRA and even these may be west
of the hubs.

Also made some tweaks to the short term grids to account for
current sky/pop expectations.
45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across se TX this afternoon.
Activity will wind down during the later afternoon hours and we may
see a slight chance remain during the early evening across the
far north.

Expect to see less convection tomorrow with slightly drier air and
more subsidence from the mid-upper ridge centered ne of the area.
Therefore...will continue the slight chc pop for Sun. The
mid/upper level pattern will begin to change early next week with
a mid/upper trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the
western U.S. This will allow for a cool front to approach from the
NE on Tuesday which will likely stall across SE TX on Wednesday.
Expect to see a better chc of showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday
morning across all areas expect the ext SW. On Wednesday expect
to see the good chances of rain expand southward to include SW
areas. There are some differences between the ECMWF and the GFS
concerning the westward extent of the precip pattern on Tue/Wed.
Have compromised some and lowered pops a little across western
areas to account for the more eastern precip area as advertised by
the ECMWF. By the end of the week we will be back to a more
typical summertime pattern. Max temps will be a little below
normal due to clouds and rain on Tue/Wed, then back to the low-
mid 90s areawide Thu/Fri.

33

MARINE...
Light onshore flow is expected for the second half of the weekend
and into next week as weak high pressure remains anchored over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The gradient will further weaken as a weak
cold front approaches SE TX from the NE on Tuesday. The front will
stall and become diffuse on Wednesday. Onshore winds return on
Thursday and begin to strengthen Fri/Sat in response to deepening
low pressure over W TX. Tide levels will remain between 0.5 and
1.0 feet above normal through the weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  94  76  94  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)              76  94  76  94  76 /  10  20  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)            81  89  80  89  80 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45


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