Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012036
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER COVERAGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. 12Z 500MB MAP
ANALYZED THIS MORNING REVEALED A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE DRIVING FORCE
FOR OUR NEXT FRONT. AT 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AROUND A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS LOCATED THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW WE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AS 850
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 18C. SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW THANKS TO ABOVE
AVERAGE PWATS AND BROAD DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AROUND 8/9 AM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING IN NORTH TEXAS AND BEGIN THEIR MARCH SOUTHWARDS. THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FRONT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
HIGH RES TEXAS TECH WRF SUPPORTS THIS WITH THE LINE STARTING TO
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES COLLEGE STATION AND BECOMING VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES GALVESTON. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE UP IN OKLAHOMA. AT 250MB
THOUGH WE DO FALL INTO A WEAK RRQ IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FRIDAY
MORNING. PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO APPROACH 2.00" WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING THE LINE GOING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
SLIGHTLY LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGH RES MODELS BUT ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO POPS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AS
SMALL CHANGES IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND COLD FRONT TIMING CAN HAVE
MAJOR CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES
CLIP OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINE.

ON FRIDAY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AND BRING A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE CONCERN HERE WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST AND HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. EITHER
WAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WARMER ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS BEAUTIFUL. DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A DAY OF LOW RH AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ALSO
BE MUCH COOLER. BOTH MORNINGS THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
THE 50S FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COOLER AIR
WILL START TO PULL EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO COMMENCE.
23

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TOO. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED...AND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE
NEEDED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DECREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RETURN
LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
AN ONSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  64  83  54 /  10  30  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  71  84  57 /  10  30  60  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  76  86  67 /  20  20  60  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42


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