Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 192049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Hot conditions have again settled across Southeast Texas this
afternoon with 3 PM CDT temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Have seen a few
heat index values reach 108 this afternoon but given the brief
and isolated nature of these observations, decided to continue to
hold off on heat advisory. Heat will continue to be a concern
through the remainder of the afternoon however and residents
should still continue to take precautions, especially if working
or playing outdoors. Isolated showers (and even a few
thunderstorms) have developed both along the sea breeze located
across Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties this
afternoon with additional convection firing up within a plume of
deeper moisture north and northeast of the Houston metro.

Expect this activity to linger through sunset with dry conditions
again overnight. Light winds and clear skies should allow for
some patchy fog development west and southwest of Houston tonight
with overnight lows only in the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday will be
fairly similar to today with high humidity and heat resulting in
borderline Heat Advisory conditions. However, expect slightly
greater shower and thunderstorm coverage than today (20-30 PoPs)
along and east of Interstate 45 as a plume of deeper moisture over
southern Louisiana and far eastern Texas is advected into the
region... with a few showers across the coastal counties again
along the sea breeze. Dry but humid conditions are expected again
inland Sunday night, but increasing moisture as an upper
disturbance approaches from the east may result in isolated
showers spreading across the coastal waters during the overnight

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows this tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The approach of this feature is expected to result in
scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms across the region
during the first half of the upcoming week, before upper ridging
builds back across Texas in the wake of a Great Lakes upper trough
and shunts the TUTT towards Mexico mid-week. A backdoor cold
front associated with the upper trough may reach the region late
in the week (Thursday or Friday) and result in rain chances
continuing through the end of the work week. Increased rain
chances and cloud cover won`t completely end the heat across the
region but should result in highs a few degrees cooler than what
was observed this weekend.

Former Tropical Storm Harvey has weakened to a tropical
depression, but Harvey is expected to continue to make westward
progress towards the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days.
Harvey may restrengthen east of the Yucatan as it encounters
weaker mid and upper level shear, but land interactions with the
Yucatan may affect additional development with Harvey as it
approaches the Bay of Campeche by the middle of the upcoming week.
Harvey poses no threat to Texas at this time, but is a good
reminder to make sure that tropical preparedness is a priority as
the region gets ready to enter the climatological peak of
hurricane season.



Lower level high pressure settled in across the northwestern Gulf
waters will maintain a light southwesterly to southeasterly
breeze over lower seas. The approach and eventual settling of an
eastern broad upper level low will increase the probability for
higher shower and storm areal coverage beginning tomorrow (Sunday)
and persisting through mid week. Odds are highest that late week
ridging will again take hold and initiate a drier late week
pattern. Due to the uncertainty on whether or not the tropical
disturbance that was once TS Harvey makes it into the southern Bay
of Campeche...will maintain a status quo forecast of light
weekend southeasterlies over near 2 foot seas. 31


College Station (CLL)      76  98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              78  97  78  95  78 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  91  82  90  81 /  10  20  10  30  10




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