Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 300455
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016
VF/SKC. High pressure expanding in across the state will weaken
Friday`s offshore pressure gradient. This will equate to continued
light northerlies. 31
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
Very quiet weather night already in progress across Southeast Texas.
Only very minor forecast changes were made on the evening update. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
VFR through the period. Resident dry air with a moderate offshore
pressure gradient producing a light north-northeast breeze. 31
A cold front has pushed through the area allowing for a nice northerly
breeze and drier airmass over SE Texas. Dew point temperatures
have dropped into the 50s to low 60s and with temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s, relative humidity levels are down to 35 to 40
percent. With clear skies and light/calm winds tonight, minimum
temperatures should drop into the 50s most areas with 60s along
Current upper level pattern has not changed much with a closed upper
low over the Ohio river valley and a ridge over the Rio Grande Valley.
A similar pattern is expected tomorrow with good agreement of the
synoptic models. Upper level trough upstream over the Pacific will
begin to change the pattern over the weekend. As such another dry
day will be expected tomorrow with high temperatures in the low
80s. It should be a nice way to end the month. 39
Ridging will remain over the area through most of the long term period,
allowing temperatures to slowly rebound back into the upper 80s to
low 90s by Tue/Wed of next week. Pleasant weather will continue
across SE Texas until an upper level trough and associated cold
front approaches from the NW during the second half of the week
next week. Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will
reenter the forecast next Wednesday/Thursday with the actual cold
front arriving sometime in the Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
Matthew has become a category 1 hurricane despite a hostile environment
with wind shear across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Matthew will
continue moving west before turning to the NW and N over the
weekend. An upper level trough is still expected to develop over
the Gulf for the weekend and help move Matthew northward into the
western Atlantic. No impacts are expected for SE Texas. 39
A cold front passed through SE Texas today and will cause gusty
winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 4 feet overnight tonight.
Small craft should exercise caution. High pressure will build into
Texas tomorrow and winds will begin to relax as the gradient weakens.
The high will shift to the east on Sunday night and onshore winds
will return to the coastal waters Sunday night. Onshore winds will
strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week.
Another cold front will cross the coastal waters next Thursday or
Thursday night. 11
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 57 81 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 58 82 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 80 71 82 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.