Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210315
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING STRATUS DECK SHOWING EROSION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA... AND THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL CENTER AROUND THE PRESENCE /OR
ABSENCE/ OF LOW CLOUDS AND ITS EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A
FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION NEAR 900 MB... ALLOWING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION AND CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE RAW MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES A MORE DRAMATIC CLEARING. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS /DECREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE EAST/...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST SKIES WILL
CLEAR...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN FOR MOST OF THE REGION
AND ALSO TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER THE EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF DRIER AIR
IS ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING /WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
ALONG THE COAST.

HUFFMAN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE STAYED CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. BUT NOT EXPECTING THE CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS COMING BACK WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS THIS AFT/EVE.
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME DRYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
TOMORROW...HAVE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW AFT.

ON MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND MAX TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SE TX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE
AGAIN TRENDED ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON MONDAY IN A
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INLAND BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE TO IMPACT SE TX IS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE SW U.S. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT BEING IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AT 12Z AND TO THE COAST BY 18-21Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AND POPS MAY STILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR SOME AREAS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY. 13

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW. WINDS/SEAS HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH
NO MORE FLAGS/ADVISORIES EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE MON NIGHT (AS THE GRA-
DIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT). THIS BOUNDARY STILL FCST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUES AFTN. THE VERY COLD AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR/OVER GALE FORCE BY TUES EVE/
EARLY WEDS MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  61  50  69  52 /  10   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  62  50  71  58 /  10   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  61  55  68  61 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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