Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 232037
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR 5H HEIGHT RISES OF 50 TO 60 M RANGE ARE INDICATIVE OF AN
EVOLVING DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS
PROGS THIS RIDGE TO AMPLIFY WITH ITS AXIS ORIENTED OVER WESTERN
TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS OVER THIS LAST WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER...VEERING THIS LATE WEEK NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW TO ONSHORE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH IN A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND LOWER DEW POINTS/%RHS. PLENTY OF SUN...WARMING
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 80-85F WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AS %RH`S BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MANY.

WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER. AS UPPER
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF A
DEEPENING ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH...MID-UPPER FLOW SHOULD VEER A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND BUMP 85H TEMPS UP TO AROUND 16-17 DEG C. A
VARIABLE TO WEAK LL ONSHORE BREEZE WITH PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL AFFORD MANY MAXING OUT IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 80S. MORE
SUN...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY COULD PUSH AFTERNOON
READINGS TO NEAR 90F AND COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR NEARLY 65 YEARS IN
THE CITY). SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM...BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON EXTREME NUMBERS PER MAYBE MORE CLOUD COVER OR A BETTER
PRONOUNCED ONSHORE WIND.

NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND OF MID-WEEK TROUGH
PASSAGE/FROPA. BOTH SLOWLY ADVANCE A SURFACE BOUNDARY (OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH) INTO NORTHERN TEXAS LATE WED/EARLY THU WHILE
PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PUMPS UP DOWNSTREAM PWS TO NEAR 1.5 OR 1.6
INCHES. NO APPARENT S/W TO TRIGGER MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER SE TX
WEDNESDAY...MAYBE JUST SCATTERED NORTHERN CWA SHOWERS ALONG WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE DOWNSTREAM LL WIND SHIFT. THE
MID-WEEK ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE (8-85H CAP)AND NOT QUITE
MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT NO MORE THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS. U.S. MIDWEST ENERGY DIVING INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY
IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY...MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLIES IN ITS WAKE MID TO LATE THURSDAY. THE HALLOWEEN
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE QUITE BREEZY AND DRY. 31

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO SE TX THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER
TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN.
AN SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NEXT WEDS/THURS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.