Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING...TRANSITIONING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...WILL ONLY REINFORCE THIS STABLE RESIDENT
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS
TRAVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO MID-WEEK...CIRRUS SPILLING
DOWN ALONG ITS EASTERN LEG WILL MAKE FOR A PARTIALLY CLOUDY TUESDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. NORTH(EAST)ERN MEXICO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WILL BACK TODAY`S WESTERLIES
ONSHORE BY TOMORROW. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT NEAR 10 DEGREE ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT BREEZES
WILL AFFORD A COUPLE OF MORE CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE
UPPER 40S.

ONSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MID WEEK FLATTENED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DEVELOPING DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA REGION LARGE UPPER LOW.
GREAT BASIN ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS OVERALL EASTERN PROGRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST IS FOR A DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH/LOW TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SATURDAY...WITH ITS NORTHEASTERN EVOLUTION INTO
THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR A MODERATE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FROM SLIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY) TO LIKELY (LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY)
PER MORE EFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM EASTERN TEXAS FALLING
UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET STREAM. THE EXTENDED MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EARLY WEEK (FEBRUARY) WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS SOLUTION SLUGGISHLY HANGS THE CORE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EURO PLACES A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW (SANS ANY TROUGHING) OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR DAYS 7 AND
8. CURRENTLY HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE NATURAL SYNOPTIC TREND
OF THE ECMWF...COLD AND DRY WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS TO BEGIN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME
OF THE FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEA FOG NEAR
THE GLS BAY AREA ONCE ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WED NT. DON`T SEE DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING H20 TEMPS BY MUCH SO PROBABLY
WON`T MENTION ATTM BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRI WITH RESULTING INCREASING NE
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA. WINDS VEER BACK
TO THE SE SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT (STRONGER) FRONT PENCILED IN FOR
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WX PRIOR TO FROPA. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VARIABLE CIRRUS COVERAGE
TODAY. FCST GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG
OVERNIGHT. MAY MENTION AT THE MORE SUCEPTIBLE SITES BUT PROBABLY
WON`T GO AS LOW A GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  76  53  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  47  75  51  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  55  69  55  69 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47



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