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000
FXUS63 KOAX 232349
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE
AXIS FROM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
EWD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY. THE 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL START TO
ADVECT EWD OVERNIGHT ON A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
MASS CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEB
LATE TONIGHT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC LITTLE CAPPING FOR A
PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND H7 AFTER 09Z. THUS EITHER NEW CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN NEB...OR SD CONVECTION MAY
MOVE INTO NE NEB LATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOW- LEVEL JET VEERS TOWARD
MORNING...AND INTO THE DAY ON THU SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REST OF ERN NEB AND EVENTUALLY WRN IA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THOUGH IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING ON THU...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AS
A STRONG EML SPREADS INTO ERN NEB. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER CAPPING BECOMES TO STRONG. A BREEZY AND
WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE ON THU NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRI. THE STRONG EML IN PLACE SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THU
EVENING AND NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRI AHEAD
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP SWD THRU THE DAY. THE NAM/SREF ARE
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND LIKELY A BIT TO FAST...BUT THE GFS
APPEARS TO SLOW. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE SOUTH TO SOAR TO NEAR 100 WITH MUCH
COOLER UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHERN CWA. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND
STRONG INSTABILITY ON FRI WE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVEN THE STRONG EML WITH +14-16 C AT H7. A BIT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION DOES MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AND
MAYBE INTO THE DAY ON SAT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN ON
THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RIDE THE TOP OF THE EML AND MAYBE INTO
THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE PERIOD APPEARS
DRY...ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL START TO GET GOING NEAR THE END
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOWARD WED/THU OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AT 00Z WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING AFTER 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...FOBERT