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000
FXUS63 KOAX 082326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY...THEN CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
BEHIND EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WERE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST...SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF
A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN RISING LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OUR AREA TUESDAY. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
BY SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY BEFORE A WEAK FRONT TIED TO A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY.

THIS PATTERN OF SOUTHWEST OR NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS PROVED TO
BE VERY WARM FOR OUR AREA THIS WINTER. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW MORE CLOUDS MONDAY...ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS...WOULD GENERALLY SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN WARMER THIS WINTER. HOWEVER MONDAYS NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE...LEADING TO LESS MIXING THAN EVENTS PAST. STILL WILL BE A
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AGAIN...BUT IF FLOW WERE A LITTLE
STRONGER WOULD EXPECT SOME 70S.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS...WITH THAT LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OR
LOWER 40S. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 300K SURFACE AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA MAY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
IN OUR NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY...WITH THAT WHOLE AREA
DEVELOPING/DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION-
MAKERS THIS WINTER...BEST FORCING APPEARS TO FOCUS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE STRONGER DYNAMICS EXIST WITH
SHORTWAVE...WITH OUR AREA RELYING MORE ON TRAILING SHEAR AXIS TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. STILL A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO AN ISSUE. FIRST OF ALL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TEETER ON RAIN/SNOW
SIGNALS ALOFT WITH SURFACE WARM WEDGE SLOWLY COOLING IN THE
MORNING. SO A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS LIKELY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY...WITH THAT AREA SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT ALL RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S BEFORE COOLING OFF
LATER TUESDAY EVENING. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN OUR
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY THE SRN FA WITH
PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DRY IN THIS FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING
...CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH THAT IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY AS
WAVES DIG SE TOWARD PLAINS. OTHERWISE...IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST
ONE DAY...IF NOT SEVERAL...WILL BE MILD.

HOW FAST PRECIP CHCS DEPART REGION TUESDAY NIGHT STILL SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY DIGS SE THRU LOWER MO VALLEY.
BUT SINCE 12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED PROGRESSIVE...CHCS SHOULD BE OVER
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 06Z BUT ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WED. AFTER THAT A
WARMING TREND STILL IN STORE FOR FA...AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY.  WAVE
DROPPING INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY WAS FORECAST TO
SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO FA FRIDAY POSSIBLY LIMITING WARMUP TO SOME
DEGREE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WAS NOTED BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.

NONETHELESS...STILL THINK GFS MEX MOS PROBABLY TOO COOL THURSDAY AND
UNLESS WAVE IS STRONGER AND/OR FARTHER SW...FRIDAY AS WELL.
GENERALLY TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES OVER MODEL/PREV
FORECAST BLEND WHICH PUT THEM MAINLY ABOVE 12Z MEX.  SATURDAY DOES
LOOK A LITTLE COOLER EITHER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
APPROACHING WAVE OR LESS FAVORABLE MIXING AS WINDS POSSIBLY TURN
MORE NRLY OR EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...NIETFELD