Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 242319
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
519 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The main forecast concerns in this period are precipitation ending
this evening, temperatures through the period and increasing
levels of fire danger by Monday in parts of southeast NE.

Shortwave trough was to our west at 12Z and 500 mb chart showed
height falls of 50 to 110 meters from eastern NE back to WY, CO
and NM with a max HFC over Albuquerque. GOES 16 water vapor loop
early this afternoon showed that the main vort max had lifted up
into central SD with a dry slot over our area. We were still
getting some pockets of light snow with RAP forecast soundings
showing some steeper mid level lapse rates. Precipitation will be
ending from west to east late this afternoon and evening. Will
clear out the winter weather advisory from west to east.

Otherwise, look for decreasing cloudiness tonight. There could be
some patchy fog but with a westerly low level flow thought it was
OK to leave out of the forecast for now. Some high level clouds
will try to work their way back into the southern parts of the
forecast area late tonight and should continue into Sunday. Highs
Sunday will not be as cold as today, reaching 35 to 40 north and
lower to mid 40s south. Increasing southerly flow will bring in
warmer air for Monday, with highs ranging from 40s north to 50s
south. Winds should also increase into the 15 to 20 mph range with
gusts 25 to 30 mph. This may push fire danger toward the very high
category in parts of southeast NE Monday afternoon.

A cold front will slide down into the area from the north for
Tuesday. There are some hints (mainly from the NAM) of maybe some
light precipitation, but did not include that at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Some of this period will be more active, mainly from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The shortwave trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska will drop
southeast through Tuesday. By 00z Wednesday, this should split
into a northern stream wave and a southern stream wave. A closed
low is forecast to drop down into southern CA, AZ and NM Tuesday
night. On Wednesday, that will then lift toward central KS while
the northern stream wave somewhat phases in with the ejecting
southern stream system. Models are fair agreement that that system
will then intensify, with a closed low somewhere over southern IA
by 12z Thursday. The 12z ECMWF has trended toward the GFS
solution and the ECMWF is now much wetter, especially from
southern MN into IA and MO. Will keep chance to likely POPs going
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Expect enough of a temperature
range for snow north and rain south.

Late in the week, a mid tropospheric ridge is expected to build
over the central part of the nation with highs trending back
toward 40s and 50s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The stratus are breaking up now that the storm system is exiting
the area. Look for a few clouds to linger for the first couple of
hours with some patchy MVFR conditions. The westerly flow will
increase and added low level wind shear for varying amounts of
time between 03-11Z. Some patchy fog will try to develop toward
morning due to the wet ground, however with the winds aloft, think
it will be patchy enough to hold off much of a mention for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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