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000
FXUS63 KOAX 061741
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARMUP STILL LOOKS TO GET GOING TODAY
AS THE ARCTIC SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
DECENT MIXING WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MIXING TO AROUND 900
MB IS EXPECTED TODAY YIELDING HIGHS UPPER 40S FAR NE TO THE UPPER
50S WEST...AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A WEAK SHRTWV
TROF /CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA PER EARLY MRNG WV IMAGERY/ WILL MOV
ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK FRONT TO CROSS THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. LITTLE OVERALL COOLING IS EXPECTED AS
MIXING WILL OFFSET THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SHRTWV TROF WILL MOV INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND SPREAD A BIT BETTER MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH SOME LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. MOST
MODELS ARE DRY FOR OUR FA...BUT THE EC DOES INDC SOME THREAT OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER. WE WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH THE BEST FORCING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER ON SUN
THAN SAT WITH THE SFC WINDS TURNING SE BEHIND THE FNT ON SAT
LIMITING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO COOL COMPARED TO THE
EC/GEM ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WRN
US RIDGE ON MON SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTS TO WANT TO SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ON MON NIGHT...WHICH LEADS TO
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVG INTO THE FA ON TUES. THIS SOLUTION IS
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW AS IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE EC/GEM OR THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLES. THUS WE WILL GO WITH THE WARMER EC/GEM SOLUTION FOR
TUE/WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES WILL TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KT TO
12KT BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MEYER