Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 111120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SIMILAR SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH YESTERDAY MORNING AS NEXT BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. YESTERDAYS EVENT WAS MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST
WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE SHOWS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NO SURFACE REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 08Z. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH AND EAST OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
PERIOD FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWS SIMILAR
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND DURING THIS TIME. ALSO LIKE
YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF IOWA WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
MAIN CORE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THIS TIME THEN STARTS TO PUSH EAST AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

TREND TURNS TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WARMING INDICATED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES THAT AFFECTS KOMA 19Z-05Z. THE
SNOW MAY BE JUST NORTH OF KOFK...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF IT
MAKES THAT FAR SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY JUST FLURRIES AT KOMA...WITH
MEASURABLE SNOW JUST A FEW MILES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



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