Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KOAX 210514
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1114 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Not much change to forecast trends during the period with timing
of cold front tonight the main concern.

A cold front was pushing into western parts of the Dakotas at 20Z
with surge of warm air out ahead of the front over the central
plains. Latest model guidance puts the front through most of the
forecast area by 06Z with strong cold advection in place by 09Z
and increasing into the morning. Have added some mention of
sprinkles or flurries from this time into the middle part of the
morning as models suggest some potential for light precip as lower
layers saturate with band of frontogenetic forcing moving through
the region. Lower layers dry out quickly by afternoon however
with strong subsidence coming in behind the system. Windy
conditions will also accompany the colder air on Tuesday with
gusts to around 30kts indicated by model forecast soundings
through the morning before diminishing in the afternoon. High
pressure then settles over the area Tuesday night before moving
off to the southeast on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures will begin
to return on Wednesday and continue into Thursday as the surface
high moves east and upper ridging develops over the western half
of the nation.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Warm air remains over the area Thursday night into Friday before
another cold front moves through the region late Friday and
Friday night. High temperatures on Friday may approach record
levels in some spots depending on the timing of the cold front
with strong mixing indicated and very warm H850 temperatures in
place ahead of the front. Cooler but still at or above seasonal
normals through the weekend into early next week with no
precipitation indicated at this time as area looks likely to be
more under the influence of the warm western ridge then the cold
eastern trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.