602
FXUS63 KOAX 141101
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today, but precipitation chances increase tonight through
  Wednesday night. Marginal risk of severe weather Wednesday 4pm
  to midnight.

- Some smoke/haze remains in the area today, likely causing
  moderate air quality.

- Spotty precipitation chances Friday through Monday but
  confidence remains low, this period probably remains drier
  than wet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Skies have cleared for much of the area early this morning as a
ridge of high pressure prevails across the region. Mostly cloudy
skies remained in extreme southeast NE and southwest IA on the
periphery of the system that moved through the region yesterday.

Dry weather is expected today, but we will still have some
haze/smoke in the area, both at the surface and aloft. The
visibility could be 5-6 miles at times for some area, and could
cause moderate air quality, but probably not significant enough
for an air quality alert. It will be a nice day with highs in
the mid 70s. And any showers on the periphery from the system to
our southeast remains just out of our coverage area today.

We will see increasing chances for rain tonight ahead of a cold
front, and mainly across eastern NE. Models do indicate that any
thunderstorms tend to weaken the farther east the get off the
front, which remains west of the area overnight.

Wednesday will see a fairly high chance of precipitation, in
the 40-60% range. There could be spotty showers Wednesday
morning leftover from any activity that moved in during the
night. As the frontal boundary begins to move into the area
during the afternoon, CAMs indicate stronger storms begin to
develop by 4 pm through the evening, and SPC has placed much of
the region in a marginal risk of severe storms with hail up to
1" and gusty winds possible with a few of the stronger storms.
With the higher chance for rain and increased cloud cover, high
temperatures should be a little cooler Wednesday in the lower to
mid 70s.

A 50-70% chance of storms continues Wednesday night as the weak
front moves into the region being pushed by a weak upper level
trough. Based on 00Z models, the precip should mostly be south
of Interstate 80 on Thursday, but the NBM blend is a little
slower to end the precipitation chances. Without a real strong
push of colder air behind the front, high temperatures Thursday
should be able to bounce back to the middle to upper 70s.

Thursday night into early Saturday looks more dry to me, but
the NBM blends hold onto slight chance Pops through this
period. Again, based on only the 00z GFS/ECMWF, overall it looks
generally dry. High temperatures Friday reach the lower 80s, and
then highs Saturday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s
around 9 to 12 degrees above normal.

The models do indicate another front is poised to begin moving
into the area by Saturday afternoon though, thus precipitation
chances increase again with the front that could linger into
Saturday night.

By Sunday, the 00z models do become a little out of sync. The EC
suggests another wave moving through the region, but the GFS
remains dry, thus confidence in the details become pretty low,
and the NBM just blends it all out to a continuing 20 to 30%
chance. By Monday, the confidence remains low and the forecast
blend contains a 20% chance of mainly climatological
precipitation that lingers into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Minor visibility restrictions (MVFR) are reported across
portions of the area thanks to Canadian wildfire smoke in the
area. Have that haze lifting this afternoon, but believe it may
linger beyond that time.

Otherwise, VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with
northeasterly winds becoming easterly this afternoon, and
southeasterly overnight as a chance of showers and
thundershowers push in from the west. Have included PROB30 at
OFK where confidence is highest. Showers have not made their way
to OMA and OFK TAFs yet.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen