Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 242316
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
616 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Did a minor update to late afternoon and evening precipitation
grids earlier. Area of shower/isolated thunder covered much of
southwest Iowa and a decent part of eastern Nebraska as of 6 pm.
Closed mid tropospheric low was over western Oklahoma. That should
track east/northeast overnight toward northwest Arkansas. Expect
that precipitation should be fairly widespread over at least the
southeast half of the forecast area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Expect showers to continue through early evening as isolated
thunderstorm potential wanes under decreasing instability. The
southward progression of a surface boundary situated across
southeast Nebraska has acted to limit the northward push of
convection today and we expect this trend to continue.

The current weather is associated with an upper level closed low
that will continue progressing through the central plains through
Saturday. This leaves our area in an overall unsettled pattern
through at least late Saturday afternoon. Despite this system
pulling out by Saturday evening quite a bit of moisture remains
within the profile allowing clouds to persist. Weak mid-level
ridging on Sunday should allow for light winds and an overall
pleasant end to the weekend though daytime temperatures in the
mid 50s. On Sunday night the next mid-level shortwave skirts
across central Kansas. Have opted to maintain some low
precipitation chances for southeast Nebrsaka associated with this
feature. Dry weather is anticipated for Monday ahead of the next
weather maker progged to move into the area by Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Ahead of the Tuesday night feature, quiet weather will rule with
mid-level ridging in place. Monday night lows should remain above
freezing, despite light winds, with temperatures on Tuesday
reaching well into the 60s.

On Monday night a mid-level trough will eject out of the four
corner region before becoming a closed upper low by Wednesday.
The latest model guidance suggests this feature will slide to our
south, similar to the current system. Though with plenty of
moisture in place and some coupling with a northern stream
shortwave, there is plenty of dynamics in place to warrant an
increase in precipitation potential Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening. By Thursday how long the system lingers
depends on how quickly the upstream flow moves. Thus for now,
have lingered precipitation into Thursday but could see this move
out quicker depending on how fast heights rise behind this low.
Daytime temperatures through the work week are forecast in the 50s
as 850mb temperature remain in the low single digits above zero.
Through at least next week, the cold air is nowhere in sight
allowing temperatures to remain near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

IFR conditions should mostly prevail overnight and into Saturday
morning, with mainly MVFR to IFR vsbys. Ceilings may improved
to MVFR Saturday afternoon. North/northeast winds will be
fairly brisk overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Pearson
LONG TERM...Pearson
AVIATION...Miller



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