RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
000 FXUS63 KOAX 210915 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .DISCUSSION... TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE VARIABLE AND CHANGEABLE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY A CLOSED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND THEN SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS BY MON NGT THRU TUE NGT PDS. BEFORE THEN FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT/SMALL MEASURABLE PCPN CHCS WILL HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH. SHORTER TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WAS NEVER REALLY SCOURED OUT OF FAR SERN ZONES YDA WHICH ALLOWED DENSE FOG FORMATION RATHER EARLY LAST EVENING. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT THIS MORNING...THEIR INCREASE WL PRBLY NOT BE SOON ENOUGH TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS BEFORE 15Z. THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVSRY WAS KEPT IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WAS EXPANDED A BIT NW...FELT WIDESPREAD POOREST VSBYS WOULD BE CONFINED TO ADVISORY REGION. OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING FOG CURVE STLT IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WORKING SLOWLY NWD THRU KS AND THESE WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY AS WELL. SO EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MILDEST TDA GIVEN THAT THE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. MADE LTL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN UT WAS SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS NRN PLAINS AS OF 08Z AND THIS THROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MUCH STRONGER ENERGY FORECAST TO DIG DOWN BEHIND IT LATE SUNDAY... LEAD WAVE COULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO FRAGMENT OR DAMPEN IT AS IT CROSSES FCST AREA. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH COULD PUSH A SFC TROUGH TOWARD OR INTO NWRN ZONES SUN AFTN PER NAM/GFS...BUT IF IT DOES IT SHOULD WASH OUT OR BECOME REESTABLISHED FARTHER W ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES. WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD KEPT IN DRIZZLE LATE TNGT AND SMALL PCPN CHCS SUN AND MON ALONG WITH GENERALLY MOCLDY SKIES. DID NOTE THAT THERE WAS DRIZZLE THIS MORNING FM OK INTO NRN TX IN THE STRATUS/STRATOCU AND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS TONIGHT...LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH COULD GENERATE SOME HERE AS WELL. BEGINNING LATE MONDAY ATTENTION TURNS TO THIS TRAILING DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER SW/SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS AND WAS SHOWN SOME SUPPORT FM 00Z/06Z NAM. SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS PROVIDED NO BIG SURPRISES AND HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED ITS CONSISTENCY...INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE IN THE MON THRU TUE NGT PD AS CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION HAS INCREASED SOME. ALTHOUGH ECMWF ALSO CONTINUED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FAIRLY WARM THRU TUE W/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 0 DEG C TILL 00Z WED...LEFT IN RAIN/SNOW MENTION MON NGT/TUE WRN ZONES GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND THE FACT THAT THE CANADIAN/NAM WERE COLDER AND SUPPORTED SNOW OVER EVEN A LARGER PART OF THE CWA. SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING... ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE AFFECTING THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK AND WILL BE PACKING STRONG WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A LATE WEEK WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...IF WE CAN AVOID SIGNIFICANT SNOW ANYWAY. && .AVIATION... TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 18Z-00Z AS MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVECTS NORTH WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER 00Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ068- 090>093. IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090- 091. && $$ CHERMOK/FOBERT
