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000
FXUS63 KOAX 150838
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE POOLED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

AS PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/NAM...THINK THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS OF
MORNING CONVECTION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHICH DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. THE SECOND WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NORTHEAST MOVING
CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPROACHES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BY EVENING AS THE SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTH LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AND STORMS MAY FIRE TO OUR WEST AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO AN
MCS AND SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CLIPPING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW IMPULSES ARE
PROGGED TO MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND SO CANNOT DISCOUNT ANY
CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THAT PATTERN WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KERN

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

CONVECTION REMAINS PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
SRN NEBR POSES A RISK MAINLY AT KLNK/KOMA EARLY IN FORECAST
PERIOD WITH OTHER ACTIVITY IN WRN NEBRASKA MOVING TOWARD REGION
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY SE WINDS
IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT NEAR
FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION THAT WILL IMPACT KLNK/KOMA. THE SECOND
AREA OF CONVECTION IN WRN NEBR WAS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KOFK
VICINITY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SEWD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS ADDITIONAL TSTM MENTION WAS CARRIED AT
KOMA/KLNK. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SECOND
CONVECTIVE BAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN NEBR.

CHERMOK


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

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