431
FXUS63 KOAX 140352
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1052 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation will continue to diminish over our southeastern
  counties through sunset this evening.

- Dry Tuesday with more chances (40-60%)for showers and non-
  severe thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Turning warmer upper 80s)by Saturday with more chances
  (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tonight

Showers will continue to diminish from northwest to southeast early
this evening as a mid-level low currently centered over northeast
Kansas continues to move east and out of our area. A few scattered
non-severe thunderstorms developed across northeast Nebraska this
afternoon where warmer surface temperatures resided. These should
continue to dissipate this evening as well.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, smoke from northwestern
Canadian wildfires will move into the area per the HRRR/RAP
vertically integrated smoke fields. We are uncertain just how much
smoke may make it, if any, to the surface and so there remains that
wildcard. For now will include more sky cover with high clouds
(smoke) and keep surface visibility above 6 SM.

.Tuesday and Wednesday:

A quick-moving ridge will turn winds from the northeast to
southeast by Tuesday afternoon which should scour out any
surface smoke if it can reach the surface. Winds will remain
under 12 kts with highs in the mid to upper 70s producing what
looks to be a top 10 day.

Showers return to the forecast from west to east as early as Tuesday
evening and overnight into Wednesday. An upper trough axis will be
swinging through the region but severe storms seem unlikely with
limited shear and instability.

Remainder of the week:

The remainder of the forecast looks mostly dry with temperatures on
Thursday in the mid to upper 70s with readings rising by Friday into
the low to mid 80s. By Saturday, temperatures continue to warm
into the mid to upper 80s. A northern upper-level trough axis
will swing through on Sunday bringing slightly cooler
temperatures to the region for Sunday and Monday with our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with a
few pockets of smoke and haze continuing to linger, bringing
down visibilities to around 6 miles. Winds have drifted to be
northwesterly area-wide, with light speeds expected to continue
well into tomorrow. Winds will drift back northeasterly, then
southeasterly by tomorrow evening, with about a 20% chance for
some light rain near KOFK from 04-06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Petersen