Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT


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