Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 270816
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
316 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

00z upper-air analysis and early morning water vapor imagery
indicate a pronounced mid to upper-level low over Ontario with a
lower-amplitude perturbation translating southeast through the
northern High Plains. This latter feature will continue through
the upper Mississippi Valley today and into the Great Lakes by
tonight. The strongest differential vorticity advection attendant
to this system will remain to our north, with generally weak
convergence along the associated boundary settling south into the
mid Missouri Valley today.

Consensus of latest model guidance indicates the highest
probability of thunderstorm development today over western and
central Nebraska where the modest frontal convergence will be
augmented by low-level upslope flow. Predictability is lower
across our area with outlier solutions such as the NSSL-WRF
developing storms this afternoon over east-central Nebraska. For
now we will maintain slight chance POPs across mainly our western
counties and adjust as necessary as we go forward through the
day.

Tonight into Tuesday, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS as well as
the GEFS and SREF mean QPF fields indicate the potential for
nocturnal shower and thunderstorm development across southeast
Nebraska within a zone of weak low-level warm advection. As such,
we have included slight chance POPs tonight into Tuesday morning
to account for this potential scenario. We will likely see
slightly cooler high temperatures on Tuesday as a continental-
polar air mass filters into the area from the Great Lakes.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the 00z models remain consistent in
suggesting that a short-wave trough will translate from the
northern High Plains into the central Plains, likely fostering the
development of a southeastward-moving MCS over portions of South
Dakota and Nebraska. The specific track of this MCS still remains
uncertain, though it does appear that the heaviest rainfall will
occur to our west. Widespread clouds and areas of precipitation
could hold high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A seasonably strong short-wave trough will translate from Manitoba
through the Great Lakes during the latter half of this work week.
This upper-air system will be attended by a cold front which will
advance south through the mid Missouri Valley Thursday into
Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
ahead of the front Wednesday night, as well as along it on
Thursday. High pressure will build into the region behind the
front Thursday night into Friday, bringing us a brief period of
dry weather. By Friday night into this weekend, thunderstorm
chances will increase as a series of weak mid-level impulses move
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Generally VFR conditions are forecast through Monday evening.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will approach KOFK between 06Z
and 12Z, but will likely diminish before reaching TAF site. There is
a slight chance for more showers or storms to develop during the day
Monday at KLNK and KOMA, but expected coverage and low chance
prohibits a mention in TAF at this time. Otherwise broken mid level
clouds should lower to near FL050 by Monday afternoon with light
south or southeast winds turning to the northeast.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Dergan



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