Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 212134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED 3 SYSTEMS OF INTERESTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND WRN US. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS...THE
NEXT OVER THE DESERTS SW...AND FINALLY A SHRTWV TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF AK. ALL 3 OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WX ACRS THE CWA
OVER THE SHRT TERM PERIOD. THE CO/KS SHRTWV TROF HAS SHIFTED NEWD
PER EARLY AFTN WV IMAGERY AND WAS LOCATED OVER NRN KS. THIS WILL
CONT TO TRACK NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z
850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED GOOD QUALITY MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS /850 MB MIXING RATIOS OF 6 G/KG INTO NRN TX/...AND THIS
WAS BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE KS SHRTWV TROUGH. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO STREAM NEWD THROUGH THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES INDC SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE SRN CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVNG HOURS AS THE
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE DZ MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS OF GOOD QUALITY...THE LIFT ATOP
THIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS. ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THIS
EVNG IN THE SE CWA WILL BE LIQUID AS TMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS
ON SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS AS THOSE SURFACES COULD STILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...BUT OTHER ROAD SENSORS INDC PAVEMENT TEMPS ALL
ABOVE FREEZING. LATEST SHRT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO INDCS THAT FOG MAY
BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR OVER-RIDES THE COLD
GROUND. THE NW CWA...NEAR THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS MAY BE THE
FAVORED SPOT FOR ANY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL MENTION SOME FOG
EVERYWHERE.

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SW AND THEN W OVERNIGHT AS THE
WAVE PASSES AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE STRATUS/FOG
EARLY ON SAT MRNG. THE FORECAST WILL TREND THIS WAY PER GFS/EC/GEM
AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS ON SAT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LATE
MRNG/EARLY AFTN SUN EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE DESERT SW/ WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT NIGHT
AND BRING A RETURNED NWD MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE FA. THIS SET-UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DZ LATE SAT EVNG THRU THE NIGHT AS THE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WELL TIMED WITH SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE.
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA IN CASE
SOME OF THE DZ MEASURES...BUT IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE A DZ/FG EVENT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON
SAT AND SO NO ISSUES WITH FREEZING PRECIP EXPECTED.

THE FINAL SHRTWV TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT
NIGHT AND WILL DRAG A STRONG CDFNT THROUGH THE FA BY EARLY SUN.
THIS SHOULD AGAIN CLEAR THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
CAA. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A GOOD SC DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDC A GOOD PART OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO FLURRIES ARE A GOOD BET
LATE SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING GOES TO OUR NE THOUGH SO WE DON`T EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW AGAIN GOES TO THE NW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK WX DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH
THIS FAST FLOW...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE IS VERY
DIFFICULT. THE BEST SHOT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS ATTM.
WED AND THU MRNG APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE FORECAST
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS
AS STRATUS ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
REACH KLNK/KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND KOFK BY EVENING. AM
LESS CERTAIN OF VISIBILITY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE...BUT INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH LOWER VIS AND DRIZZLE
TONIGHT FOR KOMA/KLNK AT LEAST TO CONTINUE TO TIP IN THE DIRECTION
OF SOME PERIOD OF GREATER RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES



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