Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 302332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES
WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK/SUBTLE WAVE JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO CROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING OUT OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREA ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALL
MODEL SUITES SEEM TO TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED 20 PERCENT POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE TO 30/40 AS IT GETS CLOSER. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NE/SD BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
GENERALLY DRY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT
OF CANADA FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. HAVE 30/40 PERCENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH THE
MODELS BRING INTO THE KOFK AREA AROUND 17Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SO ADDED VCSH TO
THE KOFK TAF AND WILL NOT GO ANY STRONGER FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEYER



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