Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 190423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM SRN MN
INTO CNTRL KS. THIS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE NEB. THE NEXT SHRTWV
TROF OF INTEREST IS OVER BC THIS AFTN AND THIS WILL TRACK EWD
TONIGHT AND THEN DIVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRNT TO MOV THROUGH THE CWA ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MRNG. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY SFC WINDS TURN
SW AND WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING AND HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 70S. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH IT OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
QUIET FALL WEATHER CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE WESTERN US ON TUE AND INTO THE PLAINS ON WED. IT STILL
APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL US WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE FORCING INDICATED IN MOST MODELS QPF
OUTPUT APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH THE GFS/EC. NEVERTHELESS WITH THE
SHEAR AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED AND WED NIGHT SOME CHC
POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...FROM
09-16Z AT KOFK...AND 11-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. OTHERWISE...JUST MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS
INITIALLY...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS BY
16-17Z...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A VERY WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA NEAR KOFK BY 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD


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