Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 160020
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDING DOWN OF THE STORM
SYSTEM TONIGHT...HEADLINES FOR LINGERING SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND
WIND.

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS RIGHT ON TRACK
OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.  AT 16Z...THE THUNDER HAD DECREASED AND WAS
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR KANSAS
CITY. BY 21Z...THERE WERE STILL LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SNOW IN THE WEST. THE DEFORMATION
BAND PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NEBRASKA...INCLUDING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR KNOX...ANTELOPE...AND BOONE COUNTIES WERE 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE
COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED PRECIPITATION WAS
OCCURRING AT WAYNE AT LAST CHECK.

TONIGHT...THE ZERO DEGREE H85 LINE SHOULD EXTEND NORTH TO SOUTH
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREAS WILL BE OVER IOWA...EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z AND LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE RAIN IN WESTERN IOWA WILL CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW...THERE IS A LARGE BREAK IN THE PRECIP WITH SNOW
FARTHER WEST WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH. THE SNOW IS
WRAPPING FARTHER AROUND THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS
THE TRANSITION TAKES PLACE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES...WHERE THE
ROADS HAVE NOT DRIED THERE MAY BE SLICK/ICY CONDITIONS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER DURING
THE LATE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT.  AT 18Z...THE
40KT WINDS ALOFT WERE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 20-
28KTS SUSTAINED.  THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND LAST OVERNIGHT...WITH A DECREASING TREND LATER
TUESDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH.

A CLOSED LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL INDUCE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS STILL MOVING THROUGH...SO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

88D MOSAIC SHOWING AREA OF -SN BEGINNING TO MIGRATE INTO NERN NEB
WITH IFR/-SN BLSN CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT KOFK. ANOTHER AREA
OF -SN WAS SITUATED OVER CNTRL NEB. MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING -SN
ACTIVITY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECTED EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY SETTLE IN AT KOMA/KLNK IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH IFR VSBY THRU ABOUT O6Z TONIGHT. AT KOFK...EXPECT THE
-SN TO END SOMETIME AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/GUSTY NW
WINDS THOUGH LIKELY TO HANG TIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AT LEAST THRU
LATE TUES MORNING. VFR THEN REST OF FCST PD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-033-034-043>045-
     050>053-065>067.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-
     017-018-030>032-042.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-016.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE


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