Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 250534
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1134 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

We are allowing Winter Weather Advisory to expire on schedule at 6
PM. Snow has tapered off in advisory area, with lingering light
snow now in southwest Iowa for the most part. Winds have begun
coming down as well, so blowing snow issues will be dwindling
quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Snow will be ending and winds/blowing snow will be decreasing this
evening, so temperatures will be the main forecast concern into
Monday.

Fairly strong system moved through the area overnight and this
morning. 500 mb 12 hour height falls at 12Z were around 110 meters
at both KOAX and KTOP. Strongest jetstream level winds were down
across southern New Mexico and west Texas, but there was also a
jet max over the Great Lakes region, leading to a somewhat coupled
jet structure. Tight mid level thermal gradient at 850 mb and 700
mb will continue to move out of the area, and high pressure at
the surface should build in from the west. Axis of that high
pressure should extend from central and eastern South Dakota into
western Oklahoma by sunrise Saturday. Low clouds will decrease but
there is some question as to how much the mid and high clouds
will decrease. Will keep conditions at least partly cloudy tonight
after the evening precipitation ends. Previous low temperature
forecast seemed reasonable, with most lows in the teens but
ranging from around 10 above at the South Dakota border to near 20
at the Missouri border.

Surface winds will turn to the south or southwest on Saturday, but
warming is not expected to be all that significant. Have highs in
the upper 20s and lower 30s in the northern and central parts of the
forecast area and 35 to 40 far south. Westerly downsloping winds and
a decent amount of sunshine should push highs to the 30s north and
40s south for Sunday. The we should add about 4-6 degrees that for
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

A mid tropospheric trough axis should extend from central Canada
back toward California at the start of this period, then progress
east to the Mississippi River valley region by Thursday. Model
agreement is not great on the details but there are enough signals
for us to include some mention of rain or snow (depending on surface
temperatures) for Monday night into Tuesday night. The 12Z ECMWF was
fairly bullish with rain and snow Tuesday, but for now it just
seemed too wet. We may see some water equivalent amounts from 0.10
to 0.25 based on the GFS.

Highs will be mainly in the 40s to mid 50s Tuesday through Friday
with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Saturday evening with mainly
scattered high clouds prevailing. However a band of broken mid
clouds will likely move through eastern Nebraska between 12Z and
18Z. Otherwise expect northwest winds of 12kt or less to turn to
southwest then south beginning late Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dergan
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Dergan



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