Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 060519
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1119 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

04z Surface observations indicate the cold front along a line from
Atlantic, IA to Beatrice, NE. A narrow frontal band of
precipitation over the Omaha metro has tended to weaken over the
past hour with observations indicating a mix of rain and snow.
Latest RAP/HRRR guidance suggests that this precipitation band
could linger across portions of southeast NE into southwest IA
into early Tue with a rain-snow mix changing over to light snow.
This band is coincident with strong frontogenetical forcing, so it
is certainly a plausible scenario. As such, we have updated the
forecast for a mention of light snow or a rain-snow mix continuing
for the next few hours. No accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface cold front was approaching northeast Nebraska at 20Z
stretching from eastern South Dakota through the southwest corner
of Nebraska into northeast Colorado. Models bring front through
most of the area by early evening with colder temperatures and
gusty northwest winds moving in overnight. Some scattered
sprinkles or flurries may develop along the front this evening but
the main feature during the period will be the colder temperatures
with subzero wind chills expected by Wednesday night and early
Thursday across all of the area.

Latest model runs continue to diminish snow potential for
Wednesday with generally only trace amounts now indicated for
parts of southeast Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Moderating temperatures indicated in the extended period as a more
zonal upper flow develops with main uncertainty being strength and
timing of short wave troughs moving through the region over the
weekend. At this point better potential for precip looks to be
north and south of the area with system becoming better organized
over the eastern conus on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

88D mosaic is showing a narrow swath of -SN approaching the Neb/IA
border...with -SN being reported at KOMA. Expect the -SN activity
at KOMA to rapidly diminish over the next couple hours.
Otherwise...VFR conditions prevailing thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mead
SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DEE


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