Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191841
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1241 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Mostly sunny early this afternoon and finally above freezing area
wide. Snow still having an impact, as we are still at a 7 inch
depth here. Evansville is at 2 inches at the airport. The warm up
will continue through Saturday. However we will see an increase
in clouds, as a substantial increase in surface-850mb moisture
takes place Saturday. We continue to see 290k isentropic lift in
the saturated layer and significant lowering of PDEF values.
Minimal QPF still showing up on the short range models. So added
back the afternoon slight chance PoPs Saturday afternoon and
continue them on through Sunday. Mainly a light rain/sprinkles or
drizzle scenario given the moisture generally remains at or below
5k/ft. Only slight chance PoPs at that. There may be some fog
Saturday evening and night, as 32+F dew point air moves over
remaining snow cover. We may be looking at just low clouds. But we
did go ahead an include some minor fog wording to hedge that
direction just in case. HiRes models running too cool for today,
MOS typically too warm. We will continue to follow weighted model
output as it has been the best performer minus localized affects.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Main impact in this portion of the forecast continues to be with a
storm system in the Sunday night/Monday morning time frame.

An upper level low is forecast to be centered over Colorado Sunday
morning. This feature will pivot northeastward into the Great Lakes
region by Monday night. A surface low and associated cold front will
develop ahead of it, approaching our area by late Sunday evening
into Sunday night. The 00z suite of models are in fairly good
agreement, although the operational GFS continues to be a little
faster than the ECMWF.

With plenty of low level moisture present, a few light showers may
be sprinkled around the area in the warm air advection regime in
place during the day on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night into Monday
morning. Some lingering showers may still be affecting
eastern/northeastern counties Monday afternoon.

This system continues to show plenty of shear with it, including a
healthy LLJ setting up over our region. However, instability
continues to remain a question, particularly any surface based. Some
elevated instability appears to be there, at least initially, with
Showalters in the 0 to -2 range over southeast Missouri, although
even that decreases as you head eastward in time through the
night. Have maintained a slight chance of thunder mainly for
western and southern counties.

QPF amounts remain on track with previous forecast, with generally
0.5" to 0.75" over southeast Missouri and upwards to around 0.5"
east of the Mississippi River. Some locally higher amounts will be
possible. This rainfall, combined with the snowmelt, may pose
some flooding potential, with rises on area streams and rivers
anticipated. We continue to highlight that hazard/impact on the
HWO, as well as in some web based/social media graphics/posts.

Dry conditions look to dominate much of the rest of the week, with
high pressure sliding into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Model disagreement exists later in the week into next weekend, but
there remains a fairly strong signal for another potential storm
system to impact the region in the 26th/27th timeframe.

Temperatures will be near to above normal throughout the period,
providing a nice break from the extended cold weather we have
endured recently.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

This afternoon, VFR conditions, SSW winds 8-12 kts, gusts 15 to 20
kts. Tonight, increasing high and mid clouds. LLWS expected as
strong southwest 40 to 50 kts of wind flow develops just above
the surface. Saturday morning through midday, cigs will lower as
low level moisture surges northeast into the area. MVFR conditions
likely. The winds just off the surface will lower some, and
reduce the LLWS aspect. Surface winds tonight through Saturday
morning generally SSW 7 to 11 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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