Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 240951
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
351 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of an
eastward moving cold front this morning, and should continue
pushing east through the eastern half of the forecast area this
morning. Lightning and brief heavy downpours will be the main
issue with the storms. Once the front clears the region early
today, strong west winds will usher in much cooler air. In fact,
temperatures will likely fall off as the day progresses. Will
continue the wind advisory through the day. Chilly high pressure
will keep things precip free through Tuesday. On Wednesday, an
Alberta Clipper will dive southeast into Illinois and Indiana.
Though most of the moisture and energy should stay along and north
of the sfc low, light rain/snow will be possible over the ne half
of the region, esp along the I-64 corridor. Not expecting any big
impacts at this time though.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

High pressure over the region will keep conditions dry and cool
Thanksgiving day through Friday.  Models show the high centered over
the southeast U.S. by 00z Saturday, and the return of southerly
winds will help temperatures moderate back to near seasonal readings
Friday night into Saturday night.  GFS brings a cold front into the
PAH forecast area by 00z Sunday, while ECMWF is slower and brings
the front into the area by 18z Sunday.  Both generate some light QPF
with the front, and the previous GFS run is similar to the latest
ECMWF.  Went with dry conditions Saturday, then slight to low chance
pops across mainly our southeast half of counties Saturday night
and Sunday.  Whatever precipitation falls should mainly be rain, but
portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana could see a
rain/snow mix late Saturday night.  Precip chances over the weekend
are low confidence and chances and timing are likely to be
adjusted.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Some showers will move through newd overnight ahead of a sfc cold
front which will sweep west-to-east through the region. These
showers are not expected to affect vsbys for significant lengths of
time. Predominant cigs should be IFR ahead of the wind shift, going
VFR shortly after sunrise in the wrn half of the region. Lifting of
cigs will take longer in the ern half of the region, going VFR by
around midday. Sustained sfc winds will be substantial most of the
night and will last through the daylight hours Mon, gusting to 25 to
30 kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DB





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.