Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 241127
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE PACKAGE.

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND SATELLITE SUGGESTS PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY HEADED OUR
WAY TODAY. HRRR MODEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THESE ARE SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGES DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
AS THIS HAPPENS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AS
WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK AND THIS SEEMS PRUDENT AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. VERY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO BEGIN BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SLIGHTLY BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE WEATHER...OR LACK THEREOF...IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THEREBY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE EASTERLY KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ON
A SIDE NOTE...THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
IT WAS FORECASTING 24 HOURS AGO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WE MAY BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY REMOVE CURRENT POPS.

FOR WHATEVER REASON THE SUPERBLEND STILL LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION SO BASICALLY TOOK THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND TONED THEM DOWN A
BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WARM
READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRANCE OVER A TAF SITE AFTER 06Z. MFVR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PS


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