Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 281926
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
226 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

H5 short wave energy embedded in nwlys aloft will continue to
touch off a few isolated showers/storms across mainly southern
half of FA thru diurnal heating hours. Otherwise, anticipate
little/no wx in the short term, as drier air works down the column
in more earnest Tmrw-Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A rather unsettled pattern is setting up for the long holiday
weekend with daily chances of showers and storms. Having said that,
it shouldn`t be a complete washout, as there should be dry periods
in between the disturbances that migrate thru the area. Trying to
determine when exactly those dry periods will be is quite
challenging this far out in time.

As for the daily details, it appears a weak sfc front will become
positioned over the area Friday into Saturday. At the same time, an
upper level disturbance will interact with increasing moisture to
produce rounds of precipitation. Heading into Sunday and Monday is
when the models diverge on where exactly the front will reside,
along with the development of sfc low pressure. 12Z GFS wants to
push a warm front north of the area putting us firmly in the warm
sector on Sunday, which would likely decrease rain chances,
especially later in the day. It then brings a cold front through on
Monday, increasing precip chances for the 4th. The 00Z ECMWF on
the other hand wants to keep the the weak front along our southern
border or into AR/TN. This would keep precip chances highest
along our southern counties. It then develops a sfc low that rides
along the front Sun night/Mon keeping precip generally across the
southern third of the area for the holiday. A quick look at the
12Z ECMWF, shows a reversal to match up close with what the 12Z
GFS is showing.

Ensembles have been flip flopping on where the heaviest swath of
rain will be, some have it over northern MO into central IL while
other runs have it near our southern border and into AR/TN. It all
comes down to where exactly the front resides thru the period.
Confidence is fairly high, that somewhere in or around our CWA
should see some rather heavy rainfall totals thru the holiday
weekend.

As for temperatures, the coolest day of the period appears to be
Saturday, with highs struggling to reach 80 in some spots. Overall
temperatures will average slightly below normal in the extended.
This will be a nice break compared to the long stretch of above
normal temps we have endured lately. Unfortunately humidity levels
will remain seasonably high with dewpoints into the upper 60s/lower
70s much of the period. Moderation is expected heading into Tuesday
and mid next week as highs once again approach 90. There also
appears to be a signal for a return to above normal temperatures
(Highs 90+) by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Short wave energy embedded within nwlys aloft will touch off an
isolated cell or two, mainly west of KCGI terminal, during the
heat of day. Otherwise anticipate only SCT to occasional mid deck
blow-off this evening, of VFR variety. Late night patchy fog
cannot be ruled out, but with drier air working down the column,
did not include it at the midday edition. Scattered diurnal cu
deck at 4-5K FT AGL should commence by late morning tmrw, and
carry into the pm hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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