Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 220436
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

As models have signaled for days, showers and thunderstorms were
progressing across southern and central portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. Despite this activity and associated cloud
cover, temperatures indeed managed to peak in the 60s across most
of the forecast area, including northern portions of southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana where more sunshine managed to
break through the early morning low stratus. The shower and
thunderstorm potential should begin to taper off from north to
south this evening as upper level energy departs and drier air
works in on a sustained northerly wind.

A return to mainly dry weather is expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night as high pressure translates southeastward from southern
Canada across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. An upper level
ridge is forecast to shift east from the Plains into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys by Friday morning. The resultant backing of
upper flow from northwesterly to southwesterly will bring a warming
trend Thursday into Thursday night as a warm front passes through
near the surface. In this transition, an increase in sky cover is
anticipated late Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers
certainly cannot be ruled out, but the main focus should remain
north and west of the area.

Highs should warm from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday into
the upper 50s and lower 60s on Thursday. Lows are forecast in the
30s across all but far southern portions of the area both tonight
and Wednesday night. Temperatures may even near the freezing mark
over the Wabash Valley region both nights, but the hard freezes of
last week have diminished the importance of freeze/frost products
until the threat to vegetation once again becomes a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper low at the beginning of the period over the TX/OK Panhandle
region still forecast to move ENE, ending up over MO by 00z Sun. The
slightly slower CMC, GFS solutions were used with some EC
incorporation. Increasing chance of convection later Friday and
Friday night, peaking Saturday, then diminishing Saturday night
through Sunday as the upper system heads toward the Great Lakes /
Ohio Valley regions.

This initial system will be followed quickly by another H5 trof /
weaker low, spreading convective chances back across the area by
Monday, continuing into Monday night. We used a blend of EC/GFS and
ECENS MOS for temps, with weight given to existing numbers as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has slid south of the
terminals. Therefore, we should see VFR conditions through the
forecast period with mid and high level cloudiness. Northeast
winds around 10kts will prevail. Winds should decrease to below 10
kts after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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