Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 231249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
Issued at 644 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
For aviation section only.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
Looking at a dry and seasonably mild period for the most part.
High pressure will be taking over today in wake of the storm
system moving slowly through the southeastern United States. The
high is more of Pacific origin, so temps will remain on the mild
side for this time of year. In fact, once the high moves off to
our east Tuesday, winds will turn more southerly and temps will
likely climb into the mid/upper 50s. Wrap around clouds will
affect many areas east of the MS River today, but hopefully will
get back to some sunshine area wide on Tuesday if we can scour out
the low level moisture. Next cold front still slated to cross into
the region from west to east on Wednesday. Right now it looks as
though the front will be moisture-starved with most of the upper
level support remaining well to our north. Therefore, should not
see any precip with it`s passage.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
Overall forecast consistency remains very good through the long
term. A colder pattern is assured for the region, along with mainly
dry conditions. 500 mb troughing will become established over the
Great Lakes region. Spokes of the trough will rotate southeast
across the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley. These spokes
will bring reinforcing shots of cold air, along with cloudiness and
As far as the specific details, Thursday and Friday will be dry with
gusty northwest winds. 850 mb temps will be in the minus 7 to minus
10 range, which often equates to highs in the 20s or lower 30s. In
this case however, the models indicate a deep boundary layer
extending up to 850 mb at times. Given these steep lapse rates,
forecast surface highs in the lower 40s look reasonable. The 500 mb
trough axis will extend from the Great Lakes to the central Plains.
Most of the light snow showers associated with this troughing are
forecast to occur to our north and east.
Over the weekend, the 500 mb longwave trough axis will shift
southeast into the Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. The models
indicate 850 mb temps will lower into the minus 10 to minus 14 range
by Sunday. Even with dry adiabatic lapse rates, highs would not get
much above freezing with these 850 temps. Cloudiness associated with
the trough will increase across our region. A few of the models
indicate spotty light qpf over our region Sunday, but the forecast
will remain dry for now based on our standard model blend.
Issued at 645 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017
As wrap around stratus moisture settles southward across the TAF
sites, MVFR cigs will be the rule through most of the day, then
some clearing may take place tonight. Northerly winds of 14-18
knots with gusts of 25-28 knots will diminish from west to east
during the afternoon hours.