Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270852

National Weather Service Paducah KY
252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Maps at 00z showed an expansive western U.S. low centered over NW
Utah and a ridge extending NE across the SE U.S. Broad SW flow
continued across our region with widespread precip just off to our
west. Will ramp up PoPs through the day, especially NW 1/2, not so
much SE toward KHOP. Still waiting on height falls to occur which
will eventually allow the mid level flow to veer to WSW. When this
happens by tonight, will see rains expand area wide. Surface front
will enter the area around 00z and then slow down, setting up
along the Ohio around 12z Sat. By 00z Sun the front should be from
about Mayfield to Madisonville.

In summary, periods of rain tonight through Sunday night with the
heaviest QPF tonight through the end of the day Saturday. NIL
thunder given lack of instability. No changes to the Flash Flood
Watch. Still think we are looking at minor, mainly non flash
flooding scenario. Typical slower response rises, with some
creeks, streams, ditches exceeding bankfull, and standing water
across some roads, and in low lying, poor drainage areas. Temps a
blend of MOS and base model output once again. In terms of actual
amounts. As expected, some of yesterday`s runs were likely too
high with amounts. The models have backed off slightly, more like
what the ECMWF had. Still 3-4+ inches in the Watch area with
generally 2-3 inches elsewhere, give or take.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Models show low pressure, centered over Kansas at 12z Monday, will
move into northeast Iowa/southeast Minnesota by 12z Tuesday. This
will lift a warm front across the PAH forecast area on Monday. Winds
will become southerly and temperatures will climb into the 50s area
wide.  Showers will continue with the best chances across eastern
portions of the PAH forecast area.  The associated cold front will
quickly follow, and will be draped across eastern portions of the
area by 12z Tuesday.  As the front starts moving across the area
Monday night, showers chances will start decreasing from the west,
with precipitation lingering only in our far eastern counties on

Winds will remain westerly behind the front into Tuesday night,
until the surface low finally moves into the Great Lakes.  This will
finally bring winds around to the north to northwest.  Temperatures
will remain near seasonal Tuesday into Tuesday night, then the north
to northwest winds will bring colder air into the region and
readings will drop to a little below seasonal readings.  High
pressure building to our west will keep us in northerly flow into

On Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF show an upper level trof moving
across the area.  ECMWF takes it farther south and keeps any
associated precipitation well southeast of our region, while GFS
does show some light QPF grazing our far southeast counties.  It
looks like we will stay dry but we could see an increase in clouds
in our eastern counties.


Issued at 1145 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Rain will overspread the taf sites from west to east on Friday. The
time of arrival has slowed a little. VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the early morning hours Friday. IFR conditions will
likely overspread the taf sites in the afternoon, but not until
evening in the kowb area. Winds will be gusty at times from the
south. A cold front will arrive Friday evening in the kcgi area,
turning winds into the north. The front will be close enough to the
other taf sites to cause winds to become more east in the evening.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for

MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for



LONG TERM.....RST is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.