764
FXUS63 KPAH 111135
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue today, with peak heat
  index values of 100 to 105F. There will be a small chance
  (10-25%) of thunderstorms this afternoon across southeast
  Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

- There will be a 40-60% chance of thunderstorms both days this
  weekend. A few strong to severe storms are possible Saturday
  afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be
  the primary threats in addition to locally heavy rain.

- A daily chance (20-40%) of thunderstorms will remain in the
  forecast for much of next week with peak coverage during the
  afternoon hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Retreating surface high pressure to our east will keep most the
area dry today. However, as isentropic upglide in the 850-700
mb layer picks up, a few isolated storms are possible during the
heat of the day in southeast Missouri, far south/southwest
Illinois, and parts of west Kentucky near the Tennessee border.
Temperatures will edge into the lower to middle 90s today. With
dew points in the lower to middle 70s, peak heat index values
will top out in the 100-105F range. Tonight will be warm and
muggy with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. Patchy
nighttime fog near more voluminous bodies of water will be
possible again.

An active weather pattern will arrive this weekend as a cold
front attempts to push into the region from the northwest. With
very robust destabilization, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
0-6 km bulk shear values around 30-35 kts, a few strong to
severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours across most of the area. At this time, damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1.0" in diameter appear
to be the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall is likely as
well, with a quick 1-2" of rain possible under the heaviest
activity. This could lead to isolated flash flooding problems.

A similar regime is possible on Sunday as well, but shear and
lapse rates do not look quite as supportive of severe
thunderstorms at this time. Temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 90s Saturday before storms initiate, with peak heat index
values again in the lower 100s. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler on Sunday, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Unsettled weather looks to continue into most of next week as an
active W-NW H5 flow pattern arrives. This will bring a series of
disturbances through the region. The details still remain
murky, so there remains a daily chance of thunderstorms
(20-40%) through Thursday. The greatest convective coverage
occur during the afternoon hours. Temperatures and humidity
levels will remain near typical mid- July values during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Lingering shallow fog at MVN will mix away by 13z. FEW-SCT CU
decks will develop this afternoon with bases around 4-6kft.
While a stray thunderstorm is possible, confidence was too low
to include as a PROB30 group. Skies will clear to high cirrus
tonight. Light and variable winds this morning will become S-SW
around 4-8 kts through tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS