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000
FXUS63 KPAH 080542 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Despite temperatures in the lower 50s, the snowpack is holding
strong from the Bootheel through the southern half of west
Kentucky. Temperatures seem to be effected the most over the
Bootheel and adjacent portions of west Kentucky, and that may have
to be taken into account Saturday and possibly to some extent
Sunday.

The models keep the pressure gradient really lax overnight, which
should allow for decent radiational cooling tonight. With all of
the melting going on, dewpoints will likely stay near freezing or
a bit above. The existing MinT grid looked great with the dewpoint
forecast and better than other guidance options, so left it alone.

Will likely see quite a range of high temperatures Saturday.
Consensus will be pretty close northwest of the Ohio, but the
warmer NAM looks pretty good over west Kentucky, where southwest
winds and quite a bit of sunshine are expected.

The models have backed off on the pre-frontal cloud cover and
shower activity Saturday. The 12Z models generate some decent QPF
over Missouri in the afternoon, but mostly dissipate it as it
moves eastward across the forecast area Saturday evening. This is
a definite drying trend from yesterday`s 12Z models. Kept the PoPs
at 30-40 for the evening, and generally only slight chance late in
the afternoon. Cannot go completely dry after 06Z, but it should
be confined to the southern third to half of the area. Cannot rule
out a mix with snow in the far north/northwest before it ends
Saturday evening, so will still have a mix in the forecast there,
but elsewhere it should just fall as rain.

Surface high pressure will be centered over the region Sunday,
which will make winds difficult to call. They will be rather
light, but could rather abruptly go from north to south with
mixing through the day. A light south wind will continue through
Sunday night in the north, but the south could go calm for much of
the night. Didn`t stray too far from consensus temperatures
Saturday night through Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Mostly sunny to sunny skies and southwest winds Monday into Tuesday
will provide very warm conditions across the PAH forecast area.
Daytime highs will reach the middle to upper 60s, with lows in the
40s.  By Tuesday night, although models are different with the track
of a surface low, they are in agreement with spreading precip across
the entire area.  After Tuesday night, ECMWF is about 6 to 12 hours
slower than GFS and GEM moving precip across the region, thus
lingering it in our eastern counties into Wednesday evening.  Went
with good chance pops Tuesday night. Due to low confidence in
timing, then went with lower chances on Wednesday area wide, and
kept only slight chances for our eastern counties Wednesday night.
As for precip type, Tuesday night and Wednesday will be warm enough
for just rain.  By Wednesday evening, if precip still lingers,
soundings indicate rain could mix with some snow before ending, but
amounts would be insignificant.

Beyond Wednesday night, high pressure will be building across the
eastern U.S.  MEX and ECE guidance differ by 15 to 20 degrees for
highs on Thursday, with ECE the colder guidance.  Winds will be out
of the northwest through the day, however believe ECE is too cold
based on clearing skies and increasing sun angle.  Leaned more
heavily toward MEX guidance but did not go that warm for now.  By
Thursday night into Friday, guidance comes into better agreement,
and with winds shifting back to the southwest, temperatures will
moderate back to near seasonal readings.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR vsbys possible between 06-14Z...then VFR conditions expected
at all sites through at least 23Z...then MVFR cigs and VCSH expected
to overspread from northwest to southeast all of the TAF sites.
Calm to light and variable winds expected through 18Z...then veer
around to the northwest aob 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RJP
AVIATION...JP