Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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982
FXUS63 KPAH 092233
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
433 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

High amplitude northwesterly flow will continue through the short
term.

Cold air will continue to settle into the region tonight, with
lows back down in the teens to near 20 as winds. Sunday will
bring a gradual moderation in temperatures as winds turn more
southwesterly and increase in speed during the day. The warm up
will continue into Monday with brisk southwesterly winds 20-30 MPH
at times ahead of the next clipper type system that will be
barreling southeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Highs
will make it back into the 50s during the day at most locations,
and portions of southeast MO may even flirt with 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM

Higher than average confidence in the extended with fair to good
agreement between models and ensembles.

The models continue to show troughing over the east but the ridge
out west starts to break down as we head into the weekend. The
region will start off with a northwest flow aloft dominating the
flow until the weekend when a more zonal flow aloft will start to
take shape. Also Wednesday night or early Thursday morning a front
does rotate through the region...but with limited moisture the most
I would expect at this time would be sprinkles or flurries depending
on arrival time. It remains a little far out in time to be very
exact with timing. However current models have it coming through
Wednesday afternoon which would translate into sprinkles being
favored. For the most part the extended is dry with near normal
temperatures through the week. This weekend the flow becomes more
southwest and models are trying to bring moisture with a southern
system. So will have to monitor next weekend to see if this system
comes to fruition. For now expect near normal temperatures through
the week and a warm up this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 430 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Cloud bases clearing KCGI/KPAH early this evening, while KEVV/KOWB
may take a few hours longer, but should be cleared by next
issuance. Winds diminish with sunset, then return from
south/southwest tmrw, and get gusty during pm hours. Gridded
time/height cross sections show very dry lower trop, but some
moistening just above 700 mb with condensation pressure deficits
dropping to 30 mb suggest a scattered to broken mid deck may
develop/advect in with warm advection ahead of the next front, so
we added that to the flight forecast, esp the planning period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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