Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301936
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Sharp H5 Trof makes Great Lakes passage tonight. It will drive a
cold front across the PAH FA, with associated showers/storms,
currently seen across central ptns IL-MO, accompanying its
passage. Such activity will diminish, but might not go away
altogether, after loss of daytime heating. As such, our highest
pops will be north and west, with lowest pops south and east, and
fropa occurring completely with lower trop winds going nwlys by
tmrw morning.

Another front enters the forecast pic Saturday-Saturday night. It
is a warm boundary that develops across the Plains, but it
extends into/across our FA. Showers and storms will be associated
with the front. The long term and now short term modeling has been
very inconsistent on the exact placement of this boundary, with
regard to our FA. Therefore, we will tweak the guidance and stay
chance category warm advection type Pops to close the short term
Sat-Sat night. Relatively speaking, Pops should spike afterward
(long term portion of forecast) when the system pushes this
direction in more earnest.

Today and tmrw will be similar with temps. Saturday will see
reinforcement of cooler air from surface High, til aforementioned
warm front can impact. Basically, 80s/60s remain the rule, though
it`s possible a few highs in the 70s in the farthest northeast
counties may come to fruition on Saturday, thanks to the surface
High.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

This period will start off with a sfc warm front to our south that
will gradually progress north across the region Sunday into
Sunday night. This will be in response to sfc low pressure
developing to our west in the Plains. Scattered convection will
exist as the warm front lifts north across our area. Highest PoPs
will be confined to the far northern/western portions of the area,
while much of western KY and portions of SEMO may end up dry most
of the day. As the sfc low pivots E/NE toward SEMO by 12Z Mon,
precip coverage/intensity will ramp up Sunday night through the
day on Monday. A cold front will push thru Monday into Monday
night with likely PoPs areawide. With plenty of instability in
place, forcing along the front may be enough to pop off a few
strong storms on Monday. At this time, it appears the best
coverage of showers/storms will exist over portions of west
KY/southwest IN Monday evening. However, with being 4 days out,
the timing of the front thru the area is subject to change.
Hopefully we can get the front thru fast enough to get much of the
precip south and east of the area before fireworks in the evening.

Total precipitation thru the holiday weekend looks to range from
around 1 inch along the AR/TN borders to near 3 inches across our
far northwest counties. The QPF bullseye looks to be off to our
northwest over northern/central MO into west central IL.

Differences in the models lead to lower confidence in the forecast
starting Tuesday. The GFS and Canadian have high pressure nudging
into the area in the wake of the cold front, while the ECMWF has the
precip lingering as the front washes out over or near the area.
Consensus and collaboration with neighboring offices keeps slight
chance PoPs in Tuesday. Heights will gradually rise mid to late next
week, and in the transition, weak disturbances moving thru the flow,
will tend to set off showers/storms. Ensembles/models don`t agree
on the timing of these, and thus the consensus keeps slight chance
PoPs in Wednesday and Thursday.

As for temperatures, Sunday will be the coolest day, at least for
the northern half of the area. Highs may struggle to reach 80 in
northern communities, with persistent cloud cover and rounds of
precipitation. A decent gradient looks to set up with highs close to
90 near the AR/TN border. Highs will average in the mid/upper 80s on
Monday and Tuesday, which is slightly below normal. As upper level
heights rise, temps look to jump a bit above normal by mid/late next
week as highs breach the 90 degree mark areawide, with lows
generally above 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Convection working across central MO will arrive KCGI vicinity
around 21Z on current track. Have included vicinity mention for
its possibility. Otherwise, convective blow off mid decks may
impact terminals this pm and early evening. Overnight, front
eventually makes passage, with northwesterlies by tmrw morning and
probably, a low VFR sct-bkn cloud accompaniment. A shower/storm is
possible with fropa, but will not be included beyond near term
vicinity mention, at least at this writing.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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