Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300547
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Only minor changes made to reduce areal coverage of thunderstorms
in the far southeast section of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
during the late evening and overnight and to shift higher
measurable PoP coverage further to the east.

Severe threat is quite limited within the WFO PAH CWA at this
time, in line with SPC`s shift eastward with the Slight risk from
the local CWA.

Otherwise, no significant changes to tonight`s forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

After a brief respite from the rain today, a cold front, which is
just to our west, will cross the region tonight. Ahead of the front,
weak ripples of energy in the southwest flow aloft will tap into
enough moisture to produce overrunning precipitation mainly over the
southeastern sections of the CWA, mainly west KY up into possibly
southwest IN. While some sprinkles could occur prior to 00Z tonight,
most of the heavier QPF will likely occur after 00Z with the
heaviest rain falling over the southern Pennyrile region.

Models are not in agreement with QPF amounts with the HRRR and GFS
indicating fairly low QPF and the NAM indicating a pretty good
amount of rain from the lakes region eastward, since it is
indicating a sfc low developing along the front to our south that
moves northeast into central KY by 09Z Wed. Definitely think the
best chances for heavier QPF will be from Calloway County KY up
through Muhlenberg County KY and areas south and east of there with
lighter amounts northwestward. In fact, if the NAM is correct parts
of southern Christian county and most of Todd county could see
upwards of a half inch or more.

Instability is hard to come by with this event but the best chance
for thunder will be over parts of west KY, namely from the lakes
region eastward (southern Pennyrile region). Better chances for
severe will be to our east and south, as outlined in the latest SPC
Day 1 outlook, but cannot rule out a strong storm in the far
southeastern areas, especially this evening. Will have to keep a
close eye on extreme southern portions of the Pennyrile region of
west KY. Convection is already ongoing in southern AR and MS heading
north northeast.

In the wake of this system, we will have a pretty tight pressure
gradient in place so breezy conditions will result on Wed. In
addition, clouds will be returning for parts of the area as main
upper trough moves overhead. However, sfc high pressure will
eventually build into the area which will mean dry but cooler
weather will be with us from Wednesday through the end of the
period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Most interesting part of the long term will come Saturday night.
Confidence is lagging somewhat, but it looks like some locations
may experience the first very light wintry type precip of the
season. However, no real impacts are anticipated at this time.

Chilly high pressure will be settling in over the region to start
the period on Friday into Saturday, with dry conditions and temps
down close to normal for this time of year. The high will scoot
off to the east Saturday night/Sunday as a weak short wave and
associated trof of low pressure at the surface push east toward
the mid MS River/lower OH Valley regions.

There could be enough isentropic lift generated to produce an
area of light precip later Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While only light rain is expected over far southern portions of
the region (closer to the AR/TN borders), temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s over the remainder of the region could result in
some very light snow, or a rain/snow mix, if the light precip
does not evaporate before reaching the ground. Nonetheless, ground
temps will bed relatively warm, and would mitigate any impacts.
So, some may wake Sunday AM to witness a few flakes of snow, but
that should be the extend of it unless a stronger wave manages to
form as we get closer to the weekend.

After a brief break in precip chances Sunday night/Monday, a
stronger, southern branch system may form toward the end of the
long term over the Southern Plains and then eject northeast word
the region later Monday afternoon or Monday night. ECMWF is much
more potent than the operational GFS with this system, but either
way, conditions will have warmed enough for an all rain event.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Some scattered showers continue to stream northeast through the
southeast corner of the area. A light shower may reach KOWB in the
next hour or so, otherwise this is a dry forecast.

Surface high will build eastward across the area overnight, so
calm or southwest winds will become northwest by morning. The
visibility at KCGI quickly tanked as winds went calm in the last
hour, but this should be short-lived as the northwest winds kick
in next hour or so. Will insert a BCFG there for the first hour of
the forecast, but it should be VFR for the rest of the night.
Cannot rule this brief fog at other sites overnight.

As a stacked low pressure system moves east to our north, winds
will back to the west southwest and gust into the teens in the
afternoon throughout the area. Stratocu are expected to spread
east across the region in the afternoon and evening. A brief
ceiling condition cannot be ruled out, but it should be above
3kft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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