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375
FXUS63 KPAH 251946
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

There is just enough instability over the Ozark foothills to
produce some scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Would
expect them to continue to develop and then dissipate quickly
through 5 PM.

The cold front is currently pushing across central Missouri and
should reach our area in the evening hours. It will push through
the entire area by morning. The associated precipitation will be
in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms behind
the front. Instability will be meager due to the upper-level
storm system passing by well to our north. Not sure how much if
any thunder we will get tonight, so will only mention a slight
chance of thunder to along with scattered showers. The post-
frontal precipitation will likely linger over much of the area
into Monday morning, but should quickly exit by early afternoon.

After we clear out Monday afternoon, mostly clear skies are
expected through Tuesday night. The strong upper-level trough will
be wobbling southward toward our region Tuesday into Tuesday
night, but for now the 12Z models are keeping us clear and dry. We
will pick up a decent west wind on Tuesday and should keep some
wind Tuesday night.

Stayed close to consensus for lows and highs through the short
term portion of the forecast with one exception. Went on the warm
side of guidance for highs on Tuesday with a west wind and lots
of sunshine expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A rather cool and dry pattern is expected during the long-term
period, however, model differences are quite large. A deep 500 mb
low is forecast to drop southward from the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday. The 12z ecmwf from Saturday morning was the outlier,
bringing this system down across the upper Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. The 12z Saturday gfs-based guidance was considerably
more progressive and further east. However, all guidance has trended
slower and further west over the past 24 hours. In fact, the 12z
Sunday ecmwf is so far west that it brings the 850 mb low into
western Kentucky briefly Friday night. If this verifies, the dry
forecast would not hold.

Since the ecmwf has been leading the model trends with this system,
it would be easy to insert some chance pops into the forecast
Thursday into Saturday. This may become necessary if model trends
persist. For the time being, pops will be raised to around 10
percent for much of the long-term. All guidance agrees the system
will be lifting out by Sunday, though they are far apart on location.

As far as temps, all guidance has trended cooler due to the closer
proximity of the upper-level low. Forecast model 850 mb temps are
now around plus 7 or 8, compared to plus 10 yesterday. As a result,
surface highs will be tweaked down into the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday. If clouds and precip occur, these readings will be several
degrees too high. As the upper low lifts out Sunday, highs should be
a little warmer. Overnight lows will generally be around 50 Wed and
Thurs nights due to wind and possible cloudiness, otherwise 40s
would be widespread. Some moderation in low temps is expected over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The cold front is still on track to move through the TAF sites an
hour or two either side of 06Z. While a stray sprinkle cannot be
completely ruled out this afternoon or evening, scattered showers
will be most likely for several hours behind the front. Coverage
will not be that great, and the impact may be negligible. Will
therefore only go with VCSH at all sites and keep the forecasts
VFR. A TS is not completely out of the question, but coverage
should be too sparse to warrant a mention in the forecast at this
time. KCGI and KPAH should clear in the late morning hours, and
possibly KEVV, too.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS