National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KPAH 061745
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Upper circulation will pass south of the area today, with weak
high pressure remaining in control through Friday. Will be some
mid and high clouds around. Dry weather will continue Friday
night, then the models bring a band of moisture across the area
Saturday into Saturday night. Will keep our minimal chance PoPs
going for now, for mainly light rain Sat. afternoon, and light
rain, possibly light snow Sat. night before ending. Used a blend
of MOS, and factored in lingering snow/sleet/ice on the ground for
temps.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Medium confidence in the extended with low confidence in dewpoints.

The models are in agreement with a storm system moving through the
heartland by mid week. However timing is becoming somewhat of an
issue with 00z Thursday ECMWF a little more aggressive with bringing
in precip Tuesday night with the companion GFS holding off a little
around 6 to 12 hours with SEMO more like 6 and SWIN and WKY more
like 12 hours later. The main difference is the ECMWF brings an
upper level long wave trough through the region Wednesday night
while the slower GFS brings it through mid day Thursday. The LI`s
stay very positive with any model...so no surface based convection.
The K index is mostly negative with the showalter very positive...so
no thunder is forecast with this system.

However looking at the temp forecast could see a mix of snow or rain
Wednesday night. The extended init yielded much higher pops and
lower dew points than any MOS guidance so weighted existing forecast
more heavily than latest guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A weak ridge of surface high pressure will dominate the region
through the period. An upper-level storm system, passing east along
the Gulf Coast today and tonight, will spread some scattered mid
and high clouds across the region today, but clear skies should
prevail tonight and Friday morning.

A complete absence of wind flow in the low-levels, clear skies
and the snowpack will lead to a good chance of fog or a very low
cloud layer developing tonight into Friday morning. Decided not to
go for it at this time, did go to an MVFR visibility in the late
evening. Also mentioned SCT005 just to hint at the low ceiling
potential. Most of this mornings guidance is leaning toward a low
ceiling versus the fog, but either way, IFR or lower conditions
cannot be ruled out. KEVV has no snow cover, so this would not be
as big of a concern there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS