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000
FXUS63 KPAH 281056
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern settling back in for the first part of
the week as another deep amplitude/closed off upper low settles sw
in the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today may lie
with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of the MS River.
Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest at least a
broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a result,
will beef up cloud cover and keep high temps in the 70s n/e
areas. May challenge record lows tonight as clouds dissipate and
winds decouple. Blocking pattern will keep things dry and
relatively cool right into mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The weather pattern during the latter half of the week and into the
weekend will continue to be a trough in the eastern half of the
country. Therefore, the main concerns will be trying to deal with
any potential waves that are strong enough and have enough moisture
associated with them to warrant any mentionable POPS. On Thursday,
models have been advertising a potent system that will pass through
but the deepest moisture will pass us by to the west and south.
Models have been trying to hint at a slight possibility of some
convection over parts of our area as this system approaches and then
exits, especially over SEMO. Neither the GFS or ECMWF are really too
excited at this point, but the GFS ensembles seem to have a strong
enough signal in parts of southern MO and southwest KY to warrant
some POPS.

While there may be other subtle disturbances rotating through the
northwest flow aloft Thursday night through Friday, there is not a
strong enough signal to warrant much more than a slight chance POP.
However, later on Friday night and into Saturday and Sunday, a more
potent trough develops and might provide a better shot at rain.
Differences in timing, QPF and strength of this next system are
great enough to not get too carried away with POPS at this point
however. A broad brushed 20-30 percent will have to do for now, as
even the GFS ensembles are not showing much either.

The other good thing we are seeing in the extended, is no real hot
weather. With this trough in place during the period, temperatures
should remain mainly in the low/mid 80s for highs and low 60s at
night. In addition, the sfc pattern will one in which winds should
stay mainly northerly or northeasterly for most of the extended.
Therefore, humidity values should remain fairly comfortable,
especially by August standards.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 548 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

High pressure moving into the northern Plains will bring gusty nw
winds up close to 20 kts today. VFR cigs will also be likely
during the day, especially at the KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM