681
FXUS63 KPAH 101733
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (10-25%) of thunderstorms are forecast today
  into Friday, with the relatively greater storm coverage across
  western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend into next week, with
  a roughly 40-60% each day. The greatest coverage will occur
  during the heat of the afternoon hours.

- Typical summertime heat and humidity is forecast through next week,
  though heat index values will climb to around 100 degrees
  Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Weak surface high pressure will keep forcing for thunderstorm
development to a minimum today and Friday, with any storm
initiation occurring along remnant outflows or moisture
gradients. This will keep PoPs in the schc range (sub-25%)
through the rest of the work week. Greatest coverage of storms
today looks again to be across west KY and southwest IN. On
Friday, storms may be more plentiful over southeast MO. Lesser
storm coverage will allow for warmer temperatures, reaching
88-92F today and 90-94F on Friday. Heat index values Friday will
top out around 100F.

A transition to a more unsettled pattern will begin Saturday as
frontal boundary moves into the region from the NW and stalls.
This will result in chc to likely PoPs this weekend (40-60%)
with the greatest coverage during the heat of the afternoon.
High temperatures Saturday will again reach the lower 90s in
most spots with heat index values around 100F. Sunday will be a
bit cooler, only in the upper 80s due to increasing cloud
coverage. Main thunderstorm risks this weekend will be from
localized downburst winds and spotty flash flooding concerns
from heavy downpours.

Unsettled weather looks to continue into most of next week as an
active W-NW H5 flow pattern arrives. This will bring a series of
disturbances through the region. The details remain murky, so
as it stands there is a daily chance of thunderstorms (40-60%),
again with the greatest coverage in the afternoon hours.
Depending on the specifics in the mesoscale, some periods of
possible organized convection or more widespread flooding cannot
be ruled out. Stay tuned for updates. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal due to cloud and precipitation
coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

FEW-SCT040 clouds will dissipate by around 00z, then redevelop
after 13z. MVFR fog possible mainly at KCGI between 09-13z,
otherwise VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF
period. Variable winds at 5 kts will become light to calm
around 00z, then southwest at 5-7kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RST