Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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298
FXUS63 KPAH 270842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Ill-defined frontal boundary still slated to shift south across
the forecast area today as H50 flow gradually becomes more
northwesterly with time. Will need to continue mention
shower/thunderstorm chcs, esp over se MO and wrn KY today as the
front presses south and a weak short wave drifts se into the mid
MS River Valley. However, weak wind fields aloft should preclude
much of a severe risk.

By later today/tonight, dry conditions will return as high
pressure build s in from the north. Models continue to indicate a
weak secondary impulse dropping se into the region on Tues, but
think this will be quite moisture starved and should have little
impact other than an increase in mid clouds and perhaps an
isolated shower or few light sprinkles west of the MS River
tomorrow afternoon.

The brunt of the change to cooler and less humid conditions will
be felt on Wednesday as the Canadian high pressure system slips
southeast into the mid MS River and lower OH Valley regions. Max
temps Wed will likely stay in the upper 70s/lower 80s despite
nearly full sunshine. Will probably see mid 50s to near 60 for
lows Wed night. Rare free late June air conditioning courtesy of
Mother Nature.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM
CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A western ridge/eastern trof pattern in the mid levels will continue
across the CONUS in the extended forecast period. Some timing/
intensity differences existed among the medium range models, but the
consensus is that scattered showers and tstms should increasingly
become common in the PAH forecast area starting early Friday.
Shortwave energy in the cyclonic flow aloft, centered in southern
Canada/the Great Lakes, is forecast to drag a surface frontal
boundary into our vicinity by then. At this time, the boundary is
progged to stall over our area for much of the weekend.

Heavy rainfall could be a factor then, as isentropic lift of moist
air over the boundary, combined with mid level vorticity maximums
moving through, should continue until late Sunday, after which
rainfall should wane from north to south as the mid/upper flow
begins to go anti-cyclonic and the surface boundary moves southward
into AR/TN.

Slightly cooler than average temps will be the rule during the
extended period, brought on by sustained lower thicknesses, but also
plentiful cloudiness, especially in the southern half of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be SHRA/TSRA activity with
possible MVFR cigs/vsbys generally through the first half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP



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