Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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042
FXUS63 KPAH 262321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1257 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Clouds will continue to thicken up from the west through the
evening, with light precip developing, moving across the area
overnight, as a s/wv approaches. Mainly light rains. Very dry
airmass below 800mb to start. Diabatic processes may result in a
brief period of light sleet or a snow flurry. Just not worth the
mention at this point given low confidence of occurrence and nil
impact. Light rains will end Monday morning as the s/wv shears out
and moves east.

Showers should develop Monday night due to a northeast moving warm
front, and weak support aloft. Could be some thunder after
midnight given elevated instability forecast. NVA region moves
across the area Tuesday. So expect a lull in the activity even
into the early to mid afternoon, with otherwise breezy and warmer
weather.

Tuesday evening and overnight, thunderstorm chances increase.
SPC in their day 3 outlook pretty much explains the severe
potential quite well, and we agree with it. Some indicators are
quite concerning in fact, but question marks still exist. Coverage
in the early evening may be scattered, given only modest mid
level support and a lack of surface focus. Overnight, coverage and
chances should ramp up as large scale ascent increases ahead of
an approaching mid level trof from the plains, and surface cold
front that will move into the area by Wednesday morning.

As far as temperatures, generally a MOS average. Model agreement
is decent. Used a blend there too. Smoothed out some of the NAM
tendencies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Confidence continues to increase with the extended.

The cold front moves through early Wednesday morning with high
pressure coming in its wake. Put a chance of thunder in early
Wednesday morning but model trends and FB are lowering pops across
the board Wednesday. I believe this  trend will continue to the
case. would not be surprised if later runs takes any chance of rain
well east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday afternoon at the
latest. Otherwise high pressure will build into the region bringing
cooler and drier air on northwest winds. It will likely be gusty
winds in the fronts wake on Wednesday but will soon overnight. As
the high shifts to our east the winds will swing back around to a
more southerly component. We will likely see a freeze Thursday night
as typical the coldest temps behind the front often occur the second
night after its passage. A warm up will begin in earnest this
weekend...once again bringing temps above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Mid and high clouds will continue to increase tonight. Rain
chances develop this evening, ending by Monday morning. Cigs will
eventually lower to MVFR, with some MVFR vsbys as well. The
airmass is very dry. So there may be a brief, initial mix this
evening before all rain. Should not be an impact. SSE winds up to
10 kts will be light tonight and Monday morning, from the SE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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