Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020458
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

WILL LEAVE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AS IS...THOUGH THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IN THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF QPF MAXES. TRAINING ACTIVITY NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SWRN IND/ADJACENT SRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED FOR PERSISTENCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE BEST QPF SHOULD BE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH 00Z FRI. AN MCS IN WRN MO DEVELOPED AS
PLANNED THIS EVENING...AND IT SHOULD ENTER WRN PARTS OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH OTHER SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
POPPING UP AHEAD OF IT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS IN OUR AREA SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO INCREASINGLY SHALLOW LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS. CONVECTION HAS LET UP AS
EXPECTED. AIRMASS TRYING TO RECOVER TO OUR NW BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT WITH RATHER LOW POPS NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN WE INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT WAVE SEEN UPSTREAM HEADS SOUTHEAST AND TRIGGERS MORE
CONVECTION. KEPT WITH THE HIGHER QPF SW / LOWER NE DEPICTION
GOING...THOUGH OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE HIGH EVERYWHERE. WILL TAPER
OFF POPS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL FORCING VIA IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A
BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT. A STRONG STORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ISOLATED SEVERE). THAT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE RELENTLESS
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION CONTINUES...BUT WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THE BETTER UPPER FLOW GETS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. THE
STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITUATED OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO
FINALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...DUE
TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN THE AREA...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WAY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SAME IDEA CROSSES OVER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FAIRLY
NON EXISTENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND WITH
NO REAL TRIGGER FOR STORMS OTHER THAN HEAT OF THE DAY TYPE
CONVECTION...NOT INCLINED TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME A BIT
STRONGER THAN IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP BY MONDAY...SO AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CREEP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OCCURING OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO REACH OUR AREA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KPAH AND KCGI ARE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
TS. KEVV MAY SNEAK BY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT TS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO RECOVER. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THEY WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS BY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ILZ084-085-
     088>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-016-
     017-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS/DB
AVIATION...DRS



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