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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1044 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

Main concern in the near term is the wet snow over western
Kentucky. So far, webcams and observers are indicating that roads
are wet. The high reflectivities on the radars appear due to very
large wet snowflakes, as opposed to intense precip. There was a
report of some whitening of the grass near Paducah earlier. With
temperatures hovering in the mid 30s, it appears that
accumulations will stay mainly on grassy areas the rest of the
afternoon. After dark, the snow should have an easier time
sticking.

The precip will end from west to east between 00z and
05z. Liquid equivalents after dark should be no more than a tenth
inch, so any snow accumulation this evening would be less than an
inch. That would be more likely to occur over the Pennyrile
region of west KY. Will continue to handle this event with a
special weather statement for the time being.

Skies have already begun clearing along a kmvn to kpof line, and
this clearing trend should move east overnight. With light winds
and clear skies, some radiation fog appears likely where precip
has occurred today. Icy spots are possible around sunrise where
heavier precip occurred.

Saturday will be mostly sunny and milder as winds become westerly.
Highs should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday appears increasingly wet since the models are now tracking the
clipper system closer to our region. The consensus surface low
track is now southeastward across central Indiana. The 12z ecmwf
takes it even further west across southern Illinois into central
Kentucky. Pops will be increased to 40 to 50 percent in many areas
east of the Mississippi River, and 20 to 30 percent in southeast
Missouri. Any leftover precip could end as a little snow Sunday
night, mainly over southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

Above average confidence in the extended forecast.

A good deal of the confidence is derived from the fact the models
have been fairly stable with very few fluctuations in the extended.
There are still a couple days that will have to be closely monitored
for possible changes as some weak systems move through. In general,
dry and seasonably mild conditions should prevail most of the
period. A clipper type sfc low will drop se into the upper Ohio
Valley late Monday and Monday night, and drag a cold front through
the region. The front looks moisture starved and most of the
dynamic forcing should remain n/e of our forecast area, so not
expecting much in the way of precip with its passage. in
addition..the sfc high that will move in behind the system on
Tuesday/Wednesday will not be of Canadian origin, so temperatures
will likely stay fairly close to January norms.

Another weak clipper system is progged to move through Thursday.
Majority of the models indicate it will also be moisture starved and
bring little more than clouds and slightly cooler temps, except for
the ECMWF which continues to indicate some light rain. Therefore
opted to just go with slight chc pops for now. The air behind this
2nd cold front may end up being a bit colder, as that high pressure
may have more of a Canadian origin.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1044 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the next 24 hrs, with
light nwrly winds backing to the west/sw overnight. Ample mixing
will allow winds on Sat to reach 9-10 kts in the mid afternoon. The
only exception to VFR conditions may be some overnight fog, possibly
dense, where the heavier pcpn fell recently. This will not affect
the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....GM
AVIATION...DB