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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1049 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAF Issuance.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Main adjustment for the remainder of tonight was to
lower minimum temperatures by 1-2 degrees for lows.
Center of surface to 850 mb ridge noted directly over the WFO PAH
forecast area at 00z Wednesday. Although there may be
some subtle thermal profile/radiation adjustments associated
with parcels aloft, anticipate surface temperature profile
will support a sharp drop over most of the forecast area within a
couple of hours. The NAM-WRF (adjusted to 5km grid spacing) seems
to be handling this change better than other guidance at this time.

There is some bust potential if the pressure gradient over
southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois does not relax later
this evening. If this does not happen temperatures may actual rise
3 degrees versus fall two degrees with time.

Otherwise, going forecast appears to be on track.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Main forecast issue this time period lies with max temp
forecasting each day. High pressure will scoot east t across the
upper Great Lakes region Wednesday, keeping things quite weather
wise during the Wed/Thu time frame. A low pressure system will
drop se from the Southern Plains into the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday night and Thursday, but should stay too far south to
affect our forecast area.

Big differences MOS temp forecasts the next couple of days, with
the GFS/NAM still much colder than the EC. GFS has not done well
(cold bias) with past snow cover episodes, and has been too cold
yesterday and today. Thus, Incorporated more of the warmer EC,
which takes PAH up to or above 40 Wednesday and Thursday. This,
along with higher sun angles, should aid help melt snow/ice cover
still on many roadways. Could result in refreezing to black ice at
night however, as temps fall back into the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

The extended period will start out under ridging aloft and a weak
sfc pressure gradient for the PAH forecast area. Clouds will be on
the increase by the first half of the weekend as a cold front
approaches from the nw. This feature will be part of a nrn stream
mid level shrtwv moving esewd through the Midwest. The cold front
should be through most of our region by Sat evening, and will be a
source of lift for mostly post-frontal rainfall early. Later Sat
night, a transition to light snow is possible over most of the
region due to a cooling atmospheric column and sfc temps dipping to,
or below, freezing. Minimal PoPs/QPF means minimal, if any impacts.
The med range model solutions begin to diverge during the latter
half of the weekend, but at this time, the best guess is that a srn
stream semi-cutoff low pressure system will generate pcpn just to
the south of the PAH forecast area.

Mon night/Tue, the initialization blend yielded robust chance PoPs
for this period, probably brought on by the 00Z ECMWF solution,
which had the srn stream low pressure system moving over the top of
our area. The 12Z ECMWF did not show this, and the GFS/ECMWF
ensemble means did not reflect it. So, just in case more members may
go back to a similar scenario, slight chance PoPs were left in the
forecast for this time period. Adjustments to temps and dewpoints
were made accordingly.

Temps were a challenge in this extended period, with the GFS
substantially colder than the ECMWF, as it has been in the short
term. We went mostly with the initialization blend for temps since
it seemed to be a reasonable compromise. Temps will be relatively
warm, and at or above average by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

IFR cigs advecting in aggressively from south/east, will likely
impact all terminals with IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys and ocnl IFR
vsbys possible. Daytime should see this area recede with return to
VFR conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$