


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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009 FXUS63 KPAH 260112 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 812 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105. The prolonged heat wave may continue into the weekend for portions of the Quad State. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected each afternoon and will provide some localized relief from the heat wave. Locally torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will be possible. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend and into Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will be possible. - The heat wave will abate Tuesday, when the entire region will see high temperatures below 90 and maximum heat indices below 100. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Aside from a few isolated showers, convection has largely been north of our cwa so far this afternoon. Still likely to see some isolated convection bubble up, but with the 594 dam ridge positioned slightly further west over KY/TN, it seems to be helping to suppress convection over our cwa moreso than the last couple of days. This ridge will gradually break down over the coming days and into the weekend. Despite this, the heat and humidity will continue to grip the region. Convection will be isolated to widely scattered at best Thursday and Friday with little in the way of forcing. There appears to be a subtle weakness in the flow to our northeast Friday night into Saturday, which may be enough to ignite higher coverage of convection during this time. The spatial coverage of clouds and convection will dictate just how warm the weekend ends up being. Precipitable water values increase to over 2", which will help support very efficient rainfall rates from any storms. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday, but it continues to look like it might need to be extended into the weekend and possibly even Monday across portions of our cwa. However, this decision likely won`t be made until Friday, when confidence in the placement and overall coverage of convection is better known. A shortwave trough dips down across the Great Lakes on Monday, which should allow a cold front to sink south across our area Monday night. This allows showers and storm chances to peak across our area. Most guidance tends to indicate the boundary making passage and drier air starting to work in on Tuesday, but some convection may linger across our south. Temperatures are forecast to finally fall below 90 degrees and dewpoints should fall below 70 degrees next Tuesday and Wednesday. Glancing further out towards the upcoming 4th of July weekend, ensembles generally show northwest flow across our area with the primary ridge set up over the south central/southwest U.S. and troughing across the northeast U.S. This may allow a somewhat active period to develop across our region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 808 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Winds will be fairly light tonight into Thursday morning as daytime heating diminishes across the area. Some patchy fog may develop overnight, especially where rainfall occurred this afternoon, mainly over SEMO and near the MVN TAF site. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon before quickly diminishing toward sunset. Any storms will have the potential to produce heavy downpours and gusty/erratic winds. Coverage will likely be lower than this afternoon, which may keep most TAF sites from being impacted directly by thunderstorms. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...KC