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000
FXUS63 KPAH 042359 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

The 12Z models have sped up the arrival of the surface freezing
line, which is currently well past Kansas City and trucking this
way. The other trend is for a cooler overall solution, with many
areas quickly changing to sleet as the cold air arrives and then
quite a period of pure snow, especially across southern Illinois
and southeast Missouri.

Given that impacts now appear likely across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois by late Thursday afternoon, will go ahead and
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning at this time. Far northwest
areas will begin at 3 PM Thursday, and most of the area will begin
at 6 PM. The far southeast 4 counties of west Kentucky will not
start until Midnight Thursday Night, and some of that area may
not see problems until after daybreak. It will be a close call
down there for Friday morning.

Given the copious liquid equivalent precipitation forecast, there
will be the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of icing, mainly over
west Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel. Much of southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana will see mainly
sleet and snow with some locations receiving as much as a half a
foot before it is done. The precipitation should end as light snow
from west to east Friday afternoon and evening. An inch of snow
may still fall 00Z-03Z Saturday in the far southeast, so will
continue the Warning down there until 03Z.

In the meantime, it will be quite mild tonight ahead of the cold
front, and some scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
will be possible mainly over the bootheel and west Kentucky
overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Dry and chilly conditions are expected Saturday as high pressure
briefly settles over the northern U.S.  As the high moves north, low
pressure will slide northeast from the western Gulf of Mexico,
skirting eastern portions of the PAH FA Sunday into Sunday night.
With cold air already in place, moisture pushed northward by this
weather system will be a wintry mix.  ECMWF takes the low a bit
farther east than yesterday, and thus has backed off a bit on QPF.
GFS still shows significant moisture across our region late Saturday
night into Sunday.  In either case, best moisture will be across
west Kentucky.  Soundings continue to indicate a wintry mix, but
while yesterday`s run showed a majority freezing rain, today looks
more like an even mixture of freezing rain and sleet across west
Kentucky into southern portions of southeast Missouri.  Farther
north and west, where temperatures will be colder and QPF will be
significantly lower, precipitation will be mainly light snow and
sleet.

Wintry precipitation is expected to transition to rain by Sunday
afternoon from the Pennyrile region west to the Land Between the
Lakes region in west Kentucky as temperatures climb a little above
freezing. This will help negate more significant ice accumulations.
Overall confidence is still not very high due to model
discrepancies, so kept snow and ice amounts fairly low for now.
Moisture is not as deep as our upcoming late work week system and is
moving more quickly, so amounts should not be as high as our first
system.  However, if the late week system leaves us with snow/ice
coverage, this could have a big impact on our surface temps and lead
to more accumulation of whatever falls.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Sunday night into
Monday, with just a small chance of light snow or sleet lingering in
our eastern counties on Monday.  Any additional accumulations during
this time period will be light.  Behind this weather system, the big
story will be bitterly cold temperatures.  Monday highs will still
be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, which is 15 to 20 degrees below
seasonal normals.  By Monday night, lows will be in the upper single
digits to middle teens, and then even a few degrees colder Tuesday
night, which would put us around 25 degrees below normal.  Wind
chills around zero will be possible both Monday night and Tuesday
night across some of our northern counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

With the approach of a frontal system, cigs/vsbys will slowly
deteriorate from northwest to southeast through the valid period.
All sites should remain VFR through at least 04Z, then decrease to
MVFR with the potential of briefly improving to VFR in the 14-21Z
time frame. VCSH possible at KCGI 09-14Z, then FZRA from 19Z on.
At KPAH/KEVV/KOWB VCSH possible after 07Z, -RA between 09-15Z,
then -RA again after 19-21Z. Southerly winds 10-15 mph will veer
around to the northwest and gust up to 15-20 mph behind the
frontal passage.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     ILZ077-078-083-086-087-089>091-093-094.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088-092.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     MOZ112-114.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
     KYZ001>008-010-011-013>016-018>020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight Thursday Night to 9 PM CST
     Friday FOR KYZ009-012-017-021-022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PS
AVIATION...JP