Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 040459

1159 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Unseasonably cool air remains anchored over the area today. Strong
high pressure was centered over Quebec with a ridge extension all
the way to the TX Gulf Coast. Upper low continues to spin over the
SE U.S. The high pressure system will weaken while mid level
ridging builds overhead with mid trop low centers off the SE
Atlantic Coast and across the SW U.S. We may see some light
showers or drizzle persist tonight, with westward movement. Will
keep PoPs fairly low, tapering off west of the Mississippi River.
May see a little drizzle Sunday morning. Otherwise will dry
things out, with a warming trend forecast Monday into Tuesday.
Generally followed a blend of the models, given respectable
agreement. For temps used a blend of persistence and the latest

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Early in the extended, surface high pressure will move from south
central Canada into the Great Lakes region, and a weak upper level
ridge will move across the lower Mississippi Valley.  This will keep
conditions dry across the PAH forecast area through Thursday.
Temperatures will remain a little above normal through Thursday, and
winds will shift back to the south Thursday ahead of our next
weather system.

As the upper level ridge weakens and the surface high moves east,
models show a cold front approaching the area Thursday night.  ECMWF
and GFS are initially in good agreement on timing, showing the front
just moving into northwest portions of the PAH fa by 12z Friday.
Beyond that, models diverge, with the ECMWF pushing the front and
associated precip right on through Friday.  GFS is slower and drier
with the frontal passage, but then shows a surge of moisture/precip
into the weekend with an upper level trof moving across our area.
There is a lack of consistency in the ECMWF, with the latest run
much wetter with the frontal passage.  GFS is more consistent with
the front and the weekend upper trof, so will lean more toward the

With models keeping QPF pretty light with the frontal passage, kept
pops Thursday night for our north and west counties in the slight to
low chance category with showers.  Went slight to low chance pops
for our entire area on Friday, and included a slight chance of
thunderstorms with models showing LIs near zero.  For Friday night
into Saturday, continued with slight chance pops for showers across
our entire area.  Temperatures will cool down to near seasonal


Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Tried to keep the forecasts real simple tonight. MVFR ceilings
will prevail to begin the period. They may drop to IFR levels for
awhile late tonight into Sunday morning. Cannot rule out some more
drizzle, but will not try to account for it now. A rather thick
layer of clouds based around 5kft will overspread the area toward
morning, and that may help erode the lower clouds. Am going with a
very optimistic ceiling forecast, indicating VFR conditions by
midday at all sites. North winds will persist around 10kts through
the day, and then drop off to under 5kts by evening. This cool
breezy, drizzly period is just about over.




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