Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191621

1121 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Issued at 1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

12 upa data showed a significant amount of residual 925 mb rh, thus
the expansive strato-cu field east of the Mississippi late this
morning. Cloud grids and public forecast products updated to
account for this. Once the weak anti cyclonic center shifts east
and weak SW flow develops at this level, we should see the clouds
decrease this afternoon from SW to NE, especially from 21z on.
Temps are on track. Only minor tweaks.

Aviation section updated as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Surface high pressure centered over our CWA early this morning will
begin to slide off to the east today.

Late tonight into Monday morning an upper level disturbance will
push a cold front across the mid Mississippi valley. With the Gulf
being cut off, moisture will be limited therefore precipitation
chances will be minimal. Models not in the best agreement on whether
any rain will fall across our CWA with the frontal passage. The
NAM12 continues to indicate a dry frontal passage with the remainder
of the models showing a variety of light precipitation scenarios
over all or part of our CWA. The outcome remains to be seen, but if
anything falls, the best chances should be over the northeast third
of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher. With so much
uncertainty, kept POPS at a minimum Monday morning. Any
precipitation chances should be south and east of our CWA by Monday

In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Through Thursday surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should
continue to keep the region dry with slightly below normal

Beyond that is where long term models diverge a bit. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show a sharp H5 short wave tracking east southeast across
the western half of the country toward our region. In the process
the ridging over our area gets suppressed somewhat, and with time
both models show the short wave deepening, becoming a closed low,
and moving it southward thereby pinching it off from the main flow
as ridging builds in behind it.

By 12Z Friday the GFS has the low centered over central Arkansas and
the ECMWF has it centered over the Texas/Louisiana border. The GFS
solution generates light QPF over our far western counties Thursday
night and Friday whereas the ECMWF solution keeps all precipitation
chances south and west of our area. Will continue to go with the
Superblend solution which keeps our area dry, at least for the time

Temperatures in the long term will slowly warm to near normal by the
end of the period.


Issued at 1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Expansive strato-cu field with bases generally around 2500-3000ft
late this morning and especially east of the Mississippi. Morning
data showed considerable moisture in this narrow layer. With time,
SW flow should develop, by 21z or so, and push the bulk of the
clouds on to the NE. There is a weak mid level circulation over SE
KS/ NE OK moving east. Mid to high clouds will continue eastward
and across our area ahead of this feature this afternoon and into
tonight. Late tonight and into the first half of Monday, could see
isold -shra or sprinkles with a mid level trof moving SE across
the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. For now, given such low
probabilities of occurrence at any one site, will not mention in
the last 6 hour portion of the TAFs.



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