Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
202 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

With the passage of the upper level disturbance, the precipitation
will slowly shift to the southeast sections of our CWA early this
evening. Showalter Indices show elevated instability mainly south
of our CWA so left thunder out overnight. Minimal impacts at best
until possibly later tonight, when areas of fog and patchy drizzle
could set in under the mid level trof. Fog is a tricky thing to
forecast at times, so will need to monitor. Also a bit of concern
that models may be clearing skies out too quickly tomorrow...a
notorious bias of models this time of year on the back side of
systems. Of course, this could have a profound effect on temps as
well. For now, backed off about 3-5 degrees from given MOS values.

In the wake of this system rising heights...warmer air aloft...and
increasing southerly flow at the surface should keep the region dry
and warmer through the end of the period.

Temperatures will quickly jump to well above normal through the
end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is moderate. Warm
and breezy Monday and Tuesday followed by increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

A strong westerly jet will be pushing eastward across the entire
country Monday into Tuesday, as it does it will effectively drag a
cold front southward into our region by late Tuesday. Ahead of the
front there will be gusty south to southwest winds Monday and
Tuesday, which will lead to near record high temperatures both
afternoons. 90 is not completely out of the question, and if it
happens, it will be one of the latest occurrences on record.

The cold front will likely become nearly stationary, and will
provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Tuesday. There are a wide variety of solutions with respect to the
movement of the front from Wednesday through the end of the week, so
there will be persistent 20-40% PoPs across portions of the area
through Friday.

The GFS, ECMWF and CMC all build a significant east Pacific/west
coast ridge aloft, which would support downstream troughing
somewhere over the mid-section of the country. The 12Z ECMWF and CMC
have a more progressive solution with the downstream troughing and
effectively push it through by the end of the day Thursday.
Meanwhile the 12Z GFS and its ensemble mean dig the troughing into
the southern Rockies, which results in a prolonged period of
moisture advection into/through the area through at least Friday. No
way to discount either solution at this time, so we will not be able
to avoid the long period of PoPs.


Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Trof of low pressure moving slowly through the region tonight may
lead to the lowering of cigs/vsbys into IFR category (esp
KPAH/KCGI)...possibly low IFR 04z-15z Sat. Any low cigs should
lift gradually into MVFR cat 15-18z. Winds will remain AOB 10


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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