Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
113 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Low pressure moving from Ohio to Pennsylvania will continue
dragging our clouds out of the area. By tmrw morning, the Low and
its associated wave aloft will have opened up and flattened out as
it lifts through the remainder of the upper Ohio river valley and
rounds its way across the New England coast, with our area seeing
upper height recovery and regenerating lower tropospheric
southerlies. In the interim, we suspect that recently departed
clouds/moisture may allow for the clearing overnight sky/little to
no winds to have another potentially foggy morning, especially in
our east (similar to our west this morning), so we`ve included
that mention in the grids.

Thus commences a warmup through the remainder of the short term
forecast, as we see daily highs rise to/exceed seasonal norms in
the lower 80s. Similarly with Lows, seasonal norms being in the
upper 50s. This means we`re about to enter a period/including
the beginning of the weekend with highs in the mid 80s, maybe
upper 80s in a few locales, with 60s the rule generally for Lows.
This includes dew points ranging thru the 60s each day, which will
provide a little feel of summer time humidity to the warmth, at
least moreso than we have experienced as of late.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Forecast confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is
average with continued run-to-run and model-to-model variability.
The upper level pattern during this time will be dominated by a
ridge extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast states. The
ridge should keep most of the active weather to the northwest of the
forecast area.

However, a couple of opportunities for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are present. The first arrives late Sunday night into
Monday as a weak frontal boundary drops south into the Lower Ohio
Valley. The second arrives by mid week with the approach of upper
level energy from the Plains. Neither chance is all that high and
the bulk of the period will likely remain dry.

With the upper level ridge in place and southerly flow in the low
levels, warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the
period. The forecast largely reflects a consensus model blend. Highs
should range in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Clearing skies will be the trend moving into the next forecast
issuance. If tonight is like last night, we`ll see the most
recently departed cloud areas in the east (KEVV/KOWB), lead to
the formation of patchy fog overnight as winds remain nearly
calm/otherwise clear sky night. Nor can it be ruled out at
KCGI/KPAH. With a fuller sunshine/warming platform on tap for tmrw,
we`ll see any fog/low clouds disperse quickly and VFR conditions
returning for all airfields by mid to late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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