Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 080528
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1128 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion for 06Z TAF`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

A very cold high pressure ridge will sink south into the southern
Plains and lower OH Valley tonight, likely bringing the coldest
temperatures with it since last March. Many locations will fall
into the mid/upper teens to near 20 by sunrise Friday.

After another cold day Friday with highs in the 30s to near 40, a
clipper system will dive southeast into the Great Lakes region
Friday night and Saturday. Though most of the precip with this
system is still expected to stay north and east of the forecast
area, we could see snow flurries from time to time, esp over
southwest Indiana and northwest KY. No impacts are anticipated at
this time. Any light precip will be east of the region by
afternoon, and skies should clear at most locations by late in the
day. The cold air will continue to settle into the region
Saturday night, with lows back down in the teens to near 20.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Fairly high confidence in the extended as models and ensembles are
fairly tightly clustered.

The models are very insistent on keeping ridging over the west and a
trough over the east. They are also persistent with a couple clipper
type system next week. The first arrives Monday. We do warm sector
for a brief period early Monday which should drive temperatures into
the 50s most places but will be followed rapidly with a cold front
in its immediate wake. This will bring another shot of cold air to
the area. It will also result in at least a slight chance of wintry
precip along the interstate 64 corridor Monday night then along and
east of Pennyrile parkway early Tuesday morning. This will be with
stronger and faster upper or mid level trough. In its wake a slower
less amplified trough more like a clipper that loses its eastward
progress as it reaches the lower Ohio Valley. It also is mainly
north and east just as the previous perturbation and effects the
northern and eastern portions of the area. Both could bring some
wintry weather to the area but impacts will be limited. In fact the
latest blend removed pops and measurable precip from the forecast.
We will have to monitor this closely as it could reappear in later
runs. Stranger things have happened. With the exception of Monday
temperatures will remain below normal in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions the rule with surface high pressure axis moving
through. Only cloud cover are some high clouds streaming north
from the frontal boundary down along the gulf coast states. Light
W/NW winds will become southwest around 5-7 knots by
midday/afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...SP



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