Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022240

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
440 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 437 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure will continue to remain anchored over the Ohio
Valley region tonight into Saturday, keeping things rain-free and
seasonably cool. Weak overrunning will likely get going over the
surface high by late Saturday or Saturday night, as mid level
moisture gets transported northeast from a southern branch low
down over western Mexico. The real bulk of the moisture with that
system should remain south of the region, but still should see
fairly high chc for some very light rains, especially over our
southern counties, Saturday night. Though temperatures may fall
into the mid 30s in some locations, it now appears freezing levels
will remain too high for any light snow to make it down to the

Meanwhile on Sunday, a northern branch short wave energy will
generally stay north of the forecast area, leaving us in between
the two nrn and srn branch systems. Will continue will chancy/sct
precip most regions Sunday, but any amounts look to be quite light
at this time. Rain chances will diminish from west to east as the
day progresses, and most locations precip-free by sundown.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

High confidence on rain early in the week and arctic blast of air
late in the week. Low confidence on Precip mid to late week.

The models continue to be in good agreement with a closed mid level
low originating in southwest Pacific opening up as it lifts
northeast across the plains into our region. This low will be
vertically stacked through the column as it reaches the lower Ohio
River Valley. There may be a clap of thunder as there are indicators
of weak instability aloft with K indices 30+ and some negative
showalters mainly along the TN and AR borders. Again maybe just a
clap of thunder nothing of significant impact. After that the models
continue to paint a vastly different picture pertaining to precip
mainly Wednesday night. The operational GFS would have us completely
dry. The Canadian is starting to support the drier solution with
only minuscule moisture available for that time frame. The EC on the
other hand continues to paint a significant amount of moisture for
the same time frame. However the general trend has been to lower
pops with the blends and would expect to continue that direction.
One thing the models are embracing is the arctic blast of cold air
and now have us in the teens Thursday night. In addition the
forecast builder has highly precise detail precip type and timing
but not necessarily highly accurate.


Issued at 437 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Satellite shows source moisture located upstream over
Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Louisiana is poised to stream
northeastward during the next 24 hours. Gridded time/height cross
sections depict the atmospheric column saturating top down to mid
levels by the end of the period, so the terminal forecast will
reflect that, as east or northeast winds develop on the underneath
side of the eastward shifting High.




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