Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200753
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
253 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Rain will keep spreading over the area today as developing surface Low
pressure rides northeastward along an inverted trof/boundary that
stretches across and just south/east of the PAH FA. Models show
elevated instability sneaking/nosing in across our southeastern
counties still, like last night, so we include a slight chance of
a thunderstorm there, esp as the Low lifts northeast across the
Tennessee valley later today.

Heaviest qpf/highest pops will thus be southeast, tapering to
lesser pops north/west across area with time, but all should see
some wet weather at some point today.

Pops wind down west to east tonight as the low tracks off to the
east, but we do retain a troffy pattern that could linger an
isolated shower even into the early weekend (Saturday). We`ve
precluded pop mention for now but wouldnt be shocked to see a few
echoes Saturday diurnally esp, but pops less than 14 for this
writing/package.

Cloud/rain muted 60s today yield to 70s tmrw with sunshine, with
50s for lows continuing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

High pressure will be firmly in place over the area at the surface
and aloft. This will result in a continued dry along with a warming
trend. The high will slowly break down Monday into Tuesday in
response to a strengthening  upper low over the west coast. As this low
strengthens the flow aloft will become southwest. This will tap into
the moisture off the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface high
pressure will be shunted to the southeast Atlantic coast allowing
the low levels to advect moisture in from the Gulf. The ridge aloft
does not break down enough to allow the cold front to come through.
However several perturbation in the flow aloft will allow for
several rounds of rain as we progress through the work week. Monday
and Monday night an inversion is in place with no surface based
instability. In contrast there is instability aloft with K index
values exceeding 30c. So will keep chance of thunder in the
forecast. As we head into mid week we do develop surface instability
with LI`s going negative and PW`s exceeding 1.5". The ridge does not
break down enough for the cold front to come through until next
weekend when the upper trough finally rotates through the region
kicking the cold front east of the heartland. This will make for a
very unsettled weather pattern through the work week with
temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

As moisture saturates down atmos column early today, anticipate
VFR cigs to do likewise. Will ultimately some MVFR decks enter
into pic with MVFR restricted vsbys in shower activity, from mid
morning through mid pm. Isolated thunder chances are primarily to
south/east of terminal locales. Rain draws to end during the
evening, west to east, but MVFR to low VFR decks linger thru
planning period in overall troffy upper pattern that continues
into the weekend.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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