Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 101828
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
128 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold
front on our western doorstep already, but it has been standing in
place there for the past 2-3 hours, awaiting its upper energy push
that will propel it on across our FA. This will come later this
afternoon/evening. Meanwhile Laps data does show that wedge of
breakout clouds has allowed MUCapes to rise into 1500 ish J/KG
range, with upwards to nearly 2500 just to our south. This area
may be short-lived however, as additional dense cloud cover is
nearby. We`ll thereby have a short window for strong/svr storm,
still in Marginal risk.

Fropa brings gusty shift to west/northwest winds and then
drier/cooler air replaces our almost summer like warm/humid
airmass for the next couple days thereafter. Dew points some
15-20F cooler are poised to usher across the FA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Ridging upper heights/high pressure will bring warming profile as
we head into the weekend. The next cold front takes shape and
makes passage Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are
synchronizing on this solution so we made only minor massages to
the overall long term forecast. Mainly, we direct Pops to
along/ahead of the front, ie mainly Sunday-Sunday night. In
addition, the preceding warm up, we bump up a degree or two from
the mean/blend, as well as the post frontal day 1 cooldown, where
we shave off a degree from the mean/blend. 80s/60s will be replaced
by 70s/50s, similar to the short term frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Satellite shows some break in the clouds but still plenty of
flight restricting bases scattered to broken across all terminals.
A cold front is poised just west of SEMO attm, and will be making
passage this evening. A chance of showers/thunderstorms with IFR
restrictions to both cigs/vsbys may accompany its passages. Winds
will shift to the west/northwest and gust upon passage.
Time/heights and mos suggest lingering low layer RH may result in
fog or low stratus type post frontal environ late tonight-early
tmrw, even with light nwlys. We`ll hint at that as well.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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