Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 242159
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

...Potential for Severe Weather & Flooding Tonight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

Increase in showers and thunderstorms as we head into late this
afternoon and evening.

Convection had increased across south central Missouri within an
axis of modest mixed layer CAPE while additional convection
associated with an advancing shortwave trough was approaching from
northern Arkansas. This more potent shortwave will lift north
into southern Missouri this evening. Widespread convection will
accompany this feature as it heads north.

Low level shear will increase with this approaching shortwave with
0-3 KM bulk shear near 40 kts with shear vectors oriented to the
north northeast. Meanwhile continued low level moisture advection
and modest surface heating will result in some destabilization
with mixed layer CAPE possibly approaching 1000 J/KG across south
central Missouri. In addition...short term models prog low level
CAPE values potentially up to around 125 J/KG.

The approaching shortwave coupled with the increasing shear and
at least modest destabilization may be enough to trigger isolated
severe storms with locally damaging winds and possibly isolated
tornadoes. The overall risk for severe weather is slight but
aforementioned parameters to support the potential.

The risk for severe weather will be primarily east of Highway 65
across south central Missouri through about 10 PM.

The flooding risk will also increase again this evening with the
heaviest rainfall across southern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A shortwave trough will track north from Arkansas and across
southern Missouri tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will increase
through the evening with the primary severe storm risk across
south central Missouri where at least modest destabilization had
occurred. Given the strength of the low level shear and presence
of more than ample low level CAPE the risk for isolated tornadoes
will continue into the evening across south central Missouri.

Another round of moderate to heavy rainfall will overspread much
of the area this evening with the highest rates across south
central Missouri. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to cover
the entire forecast area through tonight.

It appears we will see a break in the action Monday in the wake of
exiting shortwave. However an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out during the day.

Another shortwave trough will approach from the southwest Monday
night bringing another round of showers and storms into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

The unsettled weather pattern will continue the remainder of the
week as a series of shortwave troughs traverse through a quasi-
zonal flow. There will be intermittent chances of showers and
thunderstorms but there are no strong signals for severe weather.
Given the increasingly saturated conditions the flood potential
will have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A series of disturbances will continue to move through the region
through early Monday. At times, widespread showers are expected
over all three terminals. Thunderstorms are not entirely out of
the question, however, given modest instability widespread thunder
is not anticipated. LLWS will become an increasing concern again
for a few hours as LLJ increases this evening.

MVFR conditions across all terminals for CIG. JLN VIS has been and
will likely drop off into MVFR range throughout the afternoon.
Respectively, all terminals may drop into IFR range, but
confidence regarding timing is not high at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye






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