Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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017
FXUS63 KSGF 140556
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT Fib 13 2016

Cold and dry air has invaded much of the Missouri Ozarks region this
afternoon. There are some areas across central Missouri that has
barely reached 20 degrees. The main story for tonight into early
tomorrow will be the threat of a light wintry mix and freezing
drizzle. The latest Hi-Res forecast models all indicate very light
precis to begin to develop between midnight and 3 am across
western and southern Missouri. The latest RUC and HRRR even shows
some convective like precis which indicates pockets of sleet
possible.

The overall message for late tonight into tomorrow morning is we
are expecting only very light amounts of a light wintry mix but
could be impacts on roads and travel in the morning. Ground and
road temperatures have had time to cool down over the past 24
hours. The freezing line will settle somewhere near the Missouri
and Kansas border tonight before it begins to retreat eastward
during the morning hours. There will be very light precis falling
across the Missouri Ozarks with the better potential for higher
amounts across the eastern Ozarks. Freezing drizzle and some light
sleet is expected across the western half of the area and a wintry
mix with some light snow is expected across the eastern half of
the area early on. This will slowly transition to just a cold
light rain or drizzle late tomorrow morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.

We will issue a winter weather advisory for light amounts and
possible travel impacts in the morning. Like what we saw a few
weeks ago...it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause big
travel problems in the Ozarks region. All areas in the advisory
area can expect a very light glaze of ice possible. A dusting of
light sleet or light snow can be expected east of Highway 65 with
up to an inch of snow possible from the Highway 63 corridor and
eastward. Most area will warm up above freezing by Sunday
afternoon with some areas out across far western Missouri near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT Fib 13 2016

There may be some fog developing late Sunday night into Monday
morning. This will need to be watched because temperatures again
may be around or slightly below freezing. The best potential for
fog will be along and south of the I-44 corridor across southern
Missouri.

Milder temperatures return on Monday. A quick moving upper level
system across the Midwest on Tuesday may bring a few more clouds
and a slight chance of showers across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks. Decent upper Level ridging will develop across
the central U.S. for the middle and end of next week. This will
allow for way above average temperatures for the region. Highs
will be in the 60s and possible lower 70s. A preview of Spring is
coming next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR ceilings are expected to lower as
lift and eventually precipitation increases as an upper level
disturbance/jet max approaches from the wnw. Freezing
rain/drizzle (KSGF and KBBG) and liquid rain/drizzle (KJLN) are
expected to develop toward 09-10z then end toward 18z. Believe
lower clouds will hang in at KBBG and KSGF for a longer period
after the precip ends versus KJLN.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA



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