Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 252021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Sunshine and northerly winds led to a mild afternoon under
Canadian high pressure. Mid and upper level cloud cover will be on
the increase though with patchy light rain and some embedded
thunder currently approaching Interstate 35 makes a slow progress
toward the forecast area later this evening.

Shortwave energy will rotate through base of Great Lakes trough
which will increase the potential for rain chances tonight into
Monday. Low instability and high bases will keep rain amounts low
in areas that do see rain.

Models have trended up just a tad with high temperatures tomorrow
but the mercury will remain well below normal under the cloud

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Low level winds will shift back to the south on Tuesday resulting
in another mild day before daily highs climb a bit more to
seasonably normal values in the middle to upper 80s through the
remainder of the work week.

A surface boundary will struggle to become organized across the
Central Plains by midweek. With northwest flow becoming
zonal...convergence along this front will be minimal but will
still result in an uptick in low level moisture and weak
instability leading to a chance of thunderstorms by Thursday.

12z model runs have slid this front a bit farther south before
stalling it across the region. This will lead to a fairly
widespread area of showers and thunderstorms...though limited instability
at this time will check the development of severe weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast period. There will
be an increase in mid level moisture later today that will result
in a 8000-12000 ft ceiling. High based scattered showers will
develop north of I-44 after 06z into Monday morning.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Runnels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.