Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KSGF 181055
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Another pleasant day is in store for the region with a dry low and
mid-level air mass remaining in place. We will see some high
clouds at times as a couple of upper level disturbances quickly
pass southeast through the area.

A warm air advection regime will begin today with south to
southwest winds increasing in the low levels of the atmosphere.
Highs over most areas should make the middle 70s this afternoon.
Lows tonight will then fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s with
light south winds persisting.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Southwesterly flow aloft will then spread over the region on
Thursday and Friday with continued warm advection in the low
levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will respond by warming
into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.

There may be some high level clouds that try and skirt in here on
Friday with a weak short wave trough. This could knock down highs
a few degrees. We have gone with middle to upper 70s for now, but
those temperatures may need to be increased if the high clouds
remain to our west.

A vigorous upper level trough will then swing out into the Plains
on Saturday with surface low pressure and a trailing cold front
beginning to move east towards the region. This front will then
cross southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks from Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning with a good chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

Low level moisture return ahead of the cold front will be
maximized along the I-35 corridor with much poorer surface to
850 mb trajectories across the Ozarks. It does look like we could
see low to perhaps middle 60s dew points make a return just in
time for the frontal passage.

With deep layer shear forecast to be in the 30-40 knot range, we
will introduce a threat for some strong to severe thunderstorm
potential. At this time, it looks like the better potential for
severe storms would be across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri where instability may be a bit higher. Given the
amount of forcing that will be present, a line of thunderstorms
looks like the favored convective mode along or just behind the
front.

Showers and thunderstorms should then end from west to east across
the Ozarks on Sunday and Sunday night. Mainly dry weather is then
expected for the start of next work week. Temperatures behind that
front will be quite a bit cooler with highs returning to the 60s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with a few high
clouds. Southerly surface winds will be gusty during the late
morning and afternoon hours with gusts around 20 knots. Low level
wind shear conditions are then expected late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.