Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281951
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
251 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Upper level trough was located across the central Rockies early
this afternoon with a strong upper level jet streak digging on the
back side of the trough. A warm front was located to the south of
Missouri early this afternoon where dewpoints were creeping into
the 60s near the bootheel region of MO.

The main forecast focus will be with convection tonight through
Sunday, the potential for all modes of severe storms tonight and
Saturday and the increasing risk of significant flooding through
the event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

We are expecting convection to redevelop along a frontal boundary
lifting to the north into southern Missouri this evening between 8
pm and 9 pm. Convection is expected to expand northward across the
area during the overnight hours as the low level jet begins to
redevelop over the area. Instability is expected to increase
tonight, especially south of the warm front and there will be
plenty of available wind shear for the potential of severe storms.
Hail would be the primary risk for areas north of the warm front,
but along and south of the warm front, a wind risk would also be
possible. A tornado risk can not be ruled out if storms can become
surface based south of the warm front. Some linear segments will
be possible overnight into Saturday where there would be a wind
risk and also a QLCS tornado risk.

In addition to the severe weather chances, very rich moisture will
advect into the area beginning tonight, where PW values of 1.5 to
1.7 in. will be possible...approaching record levels for late
April. So the storms which develop will be very efficient rain
producers. For the system duration, we are still going with 4 to 6
inches of widespread rainfall across the area, but we would still
anticipate localized areas to have higher amounts approaching 8
inches. This would likely occur in areas where storms can train
across the same locations.

The high QPF totals will have a significant impact on area rivers,
streams and low lying areas across the region, and many of these
rivers are expected to go into Moderate or Major Flooding.
A flash flood watch remains in effect through Sunday.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

By Sunday night, the heavy rain will have shifted to the east of
the area with the main upper low still over our western CWA. Can`t
rule out some lighter rain or showers with the upper low passing
across the area, but should not cause additional impact to the
ongoing flooding. There will likely be ongoing flooding from this
weekends system continuing through much of next week.

We will be cooler next week as we remain in a west to northwest
upper level flow. The next shortwave is expected to drop into the
area by midweek with another round of rainfall for the area.
Thunderstorm chances look lower at this point due to most of the
instability remaining south of the area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Expecting MVFR conditions to continue through the day across the
area. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward via a
stout low level jet into the region. Will probably start to see
scattered convection develop after 00z in a band across southern
MO mainly affecting BBG initially and expanding to the north
affecting both SGF/JLN by 03z-04z. Will generally go with IFR and
thunderstorms from 04z onward for the 3 TAF sites as there will be
several waves of thunderstorms moving through the area through 18z
Sat.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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