Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 311202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Scattered pockets of light rain showers were ongoing across the
eastern Ozarks into central MO early this morning in association
with and upper level shortwave situated across the area. A linear
MCS located across western and central Kansas this morning
continues to push east-southeast. Surface dewpoints remain in the
low to mid 60s early this morning across the region.

Our main forecast focus will be with thunderstorm chances during
the short term period.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

For the remainder of the overnight period will continue to see the
light showers over central MO and the eastern Ozarks lift to the
northeast and eventually out of the area by mid morning. The
linear MCS in Kansas should continue to shift east-southeast this
morning but should run into less favorable conditions the further
east it pushes. May be dealing with some decaying convection in
the western CWA during the morning.

Instability will perk up a bit this afternoon with highs climbing
back into the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points maintaining in
the low to mid 60s. Focus on convection will be on any outflow
boundaries from the western convection and some upper level
energy. Deep layer shear appears to be rather weak today, so am
not expecting much in the way of severe storm organization.

Best chance at convection will occur from late today into
Wednesday as upper level energy and a surface front move through.
Risk of organized severe convection again looks to be low at this
time, although can`t rule out isolated stronger storms during peak
instability times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

For Wednesday night through the remainder of the work week, the
better chances of convection over the area will be across far
southern Missouri, with surface high pressure moving across
northern MO and keeping the higher dewpoints and better
instability further to the south.

A stronger upper level shortwave and associated cold front will
sweep through the area late Saturday and will bring a cooler and
drier air mass into the region, and should sweep precipitation
chances southeast of the area for the later half of the weekend
through the early part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR and ocnl mvfr ceilings will be
common today. A cold front will move into eastern KS and will
serve as a focus for convection this afternoon into tonight. Tstm
coverage will be hard to time so handled with vcts/vicinity for


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
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