Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 052052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Large area of high pressure at the surface continues to invade the
Midwest. In spite of full sunshine, northerly winds and fresh
snow/sleet pack have kept temperatures some 20 to 30 degrees below
average today. March sun angle is doing its work on existing
snow/sleet cover, but it will take another day or two before
everything is melted.

Forecast for temperatures tonight is about as tricky as it comes.
The surface ridge of high pressure will shift into the area this
evening, bringing light winds. With a clear sky in place,
temperatures will quickly drop this evening. As the high shifts to
the south and east, southerly winds will pick up across western
and northwestern areas and temperatures will level off/slowly rise
overnight. Now, in areas where snow cover exists across southern
Missouri, winds will not really respond there until daybreak
Friday. As a result, temperatures should drop considerably here.
The range of guidance for UNO from various models/MOS is -1 to 14
degrees. Given a current dewpoint of 5, have gone with lows in the
3 to 7 degree range, though valleys could indeed dip to around 0
degrees. As southerly winds develop across the area, will most
likely see readings bounce around from hour to hour. Needless to
say, it`s very tricky and updates should be expected.

A pattern change begins tomorrow and southwesterly winds will give
a nice boost to temperatures. We will still be below average for
highs, but given full sun and warm advection, temperatures well
into the 40s will feel nice.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

No major changes were needed for the extended portion of the
forecast. 12z suite of model output continues support previous
runs in maintaining a warming trend well into next week. The only
minor change to the forecast was to include slight chance PoPs for
rain across southern Missouri Sunday as a weak front moves into
the area. Models indicate that a little better moisture may be
available to this front. Otherwise, expect quiet and near average
conditions for the weekend and quiet and above average
temperatures for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: High pressure will be over the
region and will result in clear skies and VFR conditions through
Thursday morning.

Northerly winds will occur this afternoon as the high slides south
then will go light this evening as it settles overhead. The high
will then start to slide east overnight resulting in winds
becoming southeasterly early Friday morning, and the winds will
continue to swing over to the south/southwest and become gusty
during the morning hours Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Wise





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