Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 261948
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
148 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Potential for Severe Weather Tuesday Night...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

The light rain and snow that impacted portions of the Ozark
Plateau Sunday will gradually shift eastward and diminish this
evening as the upper level disturbance and associated lift shift
off to the east.

A southerly flow will become established heading through tonight
and Monday resulting in increasing low level moisture and warm air
advection. Expect at least patchy fog later tonight and early
Monday along with increasing stratus from the south.

Another minor disturbance tracking through the zonal upper air
pattern will move into the region Monday. This will maintain
considerable cloud cover and perhaps some patchy light rain or
sprinkles.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Active and potentially severe weather will impact the region
Tuesday into early Wednesday.

A pronounced upper level trough will swing across the western
states and into the central U.S. on Tuesday. The accompanying
cold front will move across the Plains and approach the Ozarks
region Tuesday night while a surface wave is progged to track
northeast from north central OK into central MO.

There is uncertainty on the extent of convective development
during the day Tuesday. However there is overall consensus among
models to develop deep convection across the Ozarks region Tuesday
night. In general expect scattered showers and storms to develop
Tuesday afternoon especially across south central Missouri. This
activity may be more elevated in nature. An increasing coverage
and intensity of storms will occur later Tuesday evening into the
overnight hours as synoptic scale lift and instability increase.

Models continue to depict a moist and moderately unstable warm
sector overspreading the region Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of
this system. Progged mixed layer CAPE values ranging from
1000-1500 J/KG along with favorable shear profiles will be more
than ample to support organized convection.

There is the potential for severe storms as early as late Tuesday
afternoon but more so Tuesday night especially along south of
Interstate 44. Damaging straight line winds and large hail will be
a risk with the most intense storms. The potential for tornadoes
will have to be evaluated as we get closer to the event but the
possibility is there given the shear profiles.

This system will move off to the east Wednesday leaving a zonal
flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably cool temperatures
Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later part of the
week. Dry and increasingly breezing conditions will result in
elevated fire weather conditions late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Pilots can expect intervals of light precipitation and areas of MVFR
conditions this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves
across the region. More widespread MVFR conditions will develop
later tonight into Monday morning as low stratus spreads north.
Areas of light fog and lower visibilities will also develop later
tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster



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