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000
FXUS63 KSGF 192330
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

It was a beautiful day across the Ozarks as short wave ridging
aloft and departing surface high pressure brought sunny skies
and warm temperatures to the region. Winds were picking up a bit
as the surface high slowly moves east with the winds along and
west of Highway 65 gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Mild weather is expected overnight tonight as the ridge aloft
continues to move east. Winds will remain breezy as surface low
pressure over the central plains makes a slow move towards the
area and the surface pressure gradient stays fairly tight.

Models have continued the trend of slower progression with the
system expected for late Sunday into Monday. Clouds and low level
moisture will continue a slow increase on the breezy southerly
winds into Sunday evening.

Showers and some isolated thunder will begin to impact
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late Sunday night with a
cold front finally moving across the region by midday Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will linger through most of
the day Monday with high pressure moving over the region out of
Canada Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Upper level ridging will bring tranquil weather and near normal
temperatures to the region during the midweek period. Global
models then bring an upper level trough out into the Plains from
Wednesday night into Thursday...before moving this feature into
the Mississippi Valley region by Thursday night. This will spell
our next decent shot at showers and thunderstorms. The air mass
behind that system does not look at all that cool with
temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected for this
taf period. A sfc ridge extending form the Great Lakes to the
lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low pressure moves
into the central High Plains. High clouds will increase from west
to east early in the taf period and a more developed cumulus field
may develop late in the taf period with a modest increase in low
level moisture.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA