Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 040453
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 0348 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

GOES SOUNDER WATER VAPOR CHANNELS FROM 6.5 TO 7.4 MICRONS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT BISECTING THE WFO SGF FORECAST
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE 12KM
NAM...CANADIAN...GFS SUGGESTING AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...CAPPING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD IS ON TUESDAY. BOTH HIGH RESOLUTION AND LOWER RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE NAM-WRF APPEARS THE
DRIEST...WITH THE CANADIAN...GFS AND ECMWF PROGRESSIVELY WETTER
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATE
THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL START OVER ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...THEN SLOWLY WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ANTECEDENT
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WFO SGF FORECAST
AREA. DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD SLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO DELAY ACTIVITY FURTHER
EAST...FOCUSING THE BEST INSTABILITY TO THE WEST WERE A PLUME OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP THROUGH OK/AR IN ADVANCE OF
A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE WORKING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
NE/KS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 0348 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...BOTH THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHARPEN AND DEEPEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
IN NEBRASKA. THE NAM-WRF COMBINES A SERIES OF CHANNELED VORTICITY
WAVES..WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN/LATEST ECMWF DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER
THE WFO SGF FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THESE SCENARIOS...KEPT LIKELY
AND/OR CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET...A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN A SERIES OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY BE ON THE LOW
SIDE WITH RESPECT TO QPF...BUT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
WEEK...PRIMARILY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
1.5 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAMMOND KS TO
SPRINGFIELD AND EMINENCE MISSOURI. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WATER
RELATED CONCERNS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WHICH MAY IMPACT GRADIENT OF QPF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WFO SGF FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD HAVE LESSER IMPACT THAN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WEATHER
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. UNTIL THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
AS WE HEAD LATER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS KANSAS TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 00Z GFS AND NAM
INDICATING BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. HAVE PUSHED BACKED PROB30S UNTIL AFTER 00Z,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESS WITH LATER UPDATES.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO PAH/SMITH
LONG TERM...WFO PAH/SMITH
AVIATION...RABERDING


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