Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220000
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Complex weather forecast for the area again today. Cold front was
south of the area, with the freezing line positioned across our
far southeast CWA. Some freezing rain and rain were streaming
northeast across our far southeast CWA with some freezing drizzle
occuring further west along the MO/AR border. Another large area
of precipitation was over Oklahoma and will be the focus in the
short term for some additional freezing rain later this afternoon
through tonight. In the long term, our focus will be with
additional heavy rain potential, especially across our southern
and southeast CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

A large upper level trough was over the Rockies with a strong jet
streak from Kansas into the Great Lakes region and another one
rounding the base of the trough. The region in between these jet
streaks will be favorable for enhanced lifting over our western
CWA and points northwest tonight. A large area of precipitation
over Oklahoma will continue to lift northward the remainder of the
afternoon and tonight with freezing rain spreading into the area.
Temperatures have struggled to rise today across the area and will
probably not move much tonight either, so we are expected the bulk
of accumulating precipitation tonight to be in the form of
freezing rain. The exception may be along the MO/AR border where
temperatures may rise to freezing or above. General ice amounts of
a tenth to quarter of an inch are expected with two main areas.
The first along the back edge of precipitation over south central
MO and the second over far western MO and extreme southeast Kansas
in association with the area of precipitation moving in from
Oklahoma.

The precipitation should come to an end by Thursday morning and we
should see temperatures rise above freezing as well. Another round
of rainfall should start to move into the area from the southwest
during the afternoon hours on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday night through late Saturday with the main upper level
trough remaining to our west with southwest flow aloft until it
kicks out on Saturday and eventually brings drier air into the
area by Saturday night. The highest qpf band will likely be over
our southeast CWA where another 2 to 3.5 inches of rain will be
possible through Saturday evening south and east of the Interstate
44 corridor. No flood watches at this time, but will probably need
one as this first round of rainfall moistened things up quite a
bit.

As the shortwave begins pushing into the area late Saturday, much
drier air will move in from the west. A strong front will move
through with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east
along and ahead of the front. Temperatures should remain warm
enough with these next couple of waves that precipitation will
remain in the form of rain.

Another trough will begin to dig in the western U.S. early next
week with southwesterly flow re-establishing over the area.
Another round of precipitation will begin to spread into the
region by Tuesday night into Wednesday after a brief reprieve from
the wet weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

IFR conditions and even some LIFR at BBG to start the 00z TAFS.
Pockets of freezing rain occurring, mainly over south central and
far southern MO. Will see additional pockets of freezing rain move
in from Oklahoma and Arkansas through the evening hours and affect
the terminals. IFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period, with the chance of freezing rain likely ending at the 3
terminals by late in the evening or early in the overnight period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>105.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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