300
FXUS63 KSGF 111653
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1153 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system will bring a 40-70% for thunderstorms
  on Saturday and Sunday. There is a Marginal (1 of 4) to Slight
  (2 of 4) risk for locally excessive rainfall if storms move
  over the same location repeatedly.

- There is also a Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather
  Saturday and Sunday with the greatest threats being damaging
  wind gusts, up to quarter sized hail, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The pressure gradient begins to tighten today ahead of an
incoming low pressure system and southwesterly winds will be
breezy gusting up to 30 mph. Today will stay mostly dry but
will be hot! Expect heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s
across the area with sunny skies. There is a slight chance
(15-20%) for isolated thunderstorms over central MO and over SE
MO. However, the area that has the best chance to see rain will
be over central MO as those storms try to initiate just ahead
of the trough. Not everyone will see rain, expect these storms
to be pop-up in nature. Tonight will be warm again with lows in
the 70s accompanied by breezy southerly winds. Chances for rain
(40-60%) start to increase again after midnight as the front
begins to push through.

Saturday still looks rainy for most of the area as the low pressure
system makes its way into the state. This trough will take its time
through the weekend bringing several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms that will form along the cold front as it stalls over
us. SPC has most of southern MO in a Marginal risk for severe
weather (1/5) with the main risks being damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph and hail up to quarter-sized. With WPC outlining far southwest
MO in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall (2/4), we can expect
these thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall as well. The
atmosphere will have sufficient moisture content (PWATs of 1.5-2.0")
and if storms keep reforming off the boundary and train over the
same areas, this could lead to nuisance and street flooding through
the weekend. If spending time outdoors over the next couple of days,
be sure to keep up with the latest forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Sunday morning will be similar to Saturday as the front will
still be over the area. SPC has a Marginal risk for severe
weather (1/5) for Sunday as well with strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms expected for most of the morning. Again,
these storms have the potential to drop heavy rainfall. The
front will move east by Sunday evening and the rain will
dissipate. Next week will feature daily afternoon thunderstorm
chances (20-40%) with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Patchy cumulus have developed throughout the morning and will
continue to linger into the afternoon. It is possible a stray
storm or two manage to develop this afternoon; however,
confidence was too low to include any mention even in a prob30
group. Instead, the greater chance for showers and thunderstorms
will come after 05Z as a slow-moving cold front enters into the
area. This activity is expected to gradually weaken as it
approaches the terminals, but lightning appears to remain
possible through the overnight hours.

Winds this afternoon will remain out of the southwest,
occasionally gusting near 25 kt at the SGF and JLN sites before
subsiding after sunset (outside of any thunderstorms).


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio