Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202053
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Well, the perpetual stratus is holding strong across the region for
yet another day, with morning fog lifting to a widespread 1500 ft or
so cloud base.  We should see stratus build back toward the surface
yet again tonight, though fog isn`t expected to be as significant as
the last few nights.  For now will maintain a mention of sub-1 mile
visibility across western and southern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas during the overnight hours.  As things usually go, though,
expect that fog will be somewhat patchy, with a wide variation in
visibility across relatively short distances.

Other than perhaps a break or two in the cloud cover across far
south-central Missouri, chances for any sun look pretty slim for
Sunday, as the next storm system of interest begins to take shape
across the northern Rockies and High Plains.  Despite the cloud
cover, increasing southerly winds will help temperatures warm a few
more degrees compared to today, with Sunday`s highs generally in the
mid to upper 40s, with maybe a 50 degree reading or two possible
across southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The aforementioned storm system will really begin to dig across the
Central and Northern Plains Sunday night, with a closed upper level
low expected to develop over eastern South Dakota by Monday
morning.  The first of two significant shortwaves associated with
this closed low will drive a fairly weak cold front through the area
Monday, which will bring with it rain showers and a shift from
southerly to westerly winds.  A stronger mid level wave, and
associated cold front, will then sweep across the region Tuesday
morning, with the mid level wave helping to significantly deepen the
upper level trough across much of the nation`s midsection.  Along
with much colder air, additional precipitation chances will arrive
with this second front.

While model guidance is in decent agreement with the large scale
pattern, significant differences remain as to where exactly the
upper level wave will pivot across the Southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley as we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday,
which will have a significant impact on the amount of precipitation,
as well as what type of precip, is observed across the forecast
area.  A quicker pivot (a la the 12Z GFS) will allow the surface low
to lift north quicker, with wrap around precipitation lifting across
the eastern third to half of the CWA as a rain/snow mix or as just
snow.  The ECMWF`s slower pivot would likely keep most of the wintry
precipitation east of the forecast area.  While there`s little
suggestion of any sort of significant wintry precipitation, this
will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days, with at
least the potential for a couple of snow flakes for some on
Christmas Eve.

Cooler weather Wednesday should give way to dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures for Christmas Day, with readings likely
making it into the 40s.  Another storm system digging across the
Great Basin will then bring slightly cooler conditions and another
chance for precipitation by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A slow improvement in flight conditions will continue this
afternoon, especially at Joplin and Springfield where mainly MVFR
is expected. The Branson terminal will also improve, but will
remain very close to the low end MVFR/high end IFR threshold.
Flight conditions are then expected to deteriorate again tonight
as ceilings lower and fog develops. Dense fog again appears
possible around Branson. As has been the case the last couple of
mornings, ceilings/visibilities will then slowly improve Sunday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann





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