Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 292335
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)

A drier and cooler airmass was spreading into extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. So far, no
convection has fired along this cold front, currently at 230 PM
located roughly along southern Missouri`s Highway 60 corridor.

The airmass is still capped as the RUC40 is showing a corridor of
25 j/kg of mixed layer inhibition along the front. We can not rule
out scattered thunderstorm development this evening and overnight,
therefore we kept some minor pops going. The better signal appears
to be over southeast Kansas and western Missouri, but even this
area is questionable.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s in most locations,
with low 70s expected near the Arkansas border.

For Thursday, some lingering showers will be possible early in the
morning, then clearing up completely by mid day. Look for
fantastic weather with highs in the 80s. The air will feel much
more comfortable with less humidity expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

The long term forecast looks very dry as the Ozarks remains
positioned under northwest flow. This pattern will offer
temperatures very close to seasonal normals.

Highs Friday and into the weekend will range from the upper 80s to
around 92 degrees on an afternoon basis. Overnight lows will fall
into the 60s and low 70s.

By Monday we start to heat up once again as height rises build in
from the western ridge. Heat indices will range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday. Some minor
precipitation chances will be needed with the increase in moisture
levels, and the possibility of a frontal boundary lingering around
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Cold front moving across far southern
Missouri late this afternoon. Winds have shifted to the northeast at
KSGF and KJLN and a light northwest wind at KBBG will shift more
northeast by early evening. Visible satellite imagery shows
diminishing cumulus field along the boundary. Have been some
isolated cells develop along the front, but with some convective
inhibition they only last a very short time. Expect the
possibility of an isolated shower at KBBG through about 04Z.
Otherwise drier low level filters in overnight with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period and winds under 10 knots after
sunset.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding






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