Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 281055
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Water vapor this morning is showing a nice swirl in the atmosphere
over the Rockies this morning associated with an upper level low
which will slowly move out across the Central Plains and the
Midwest over the next couple of days.

There should be less convection today mainly because of slightly
drier air being forecasted in the upper air soundings. PW values
from the evening weather balloon were close to 2 inches but should
drop today as the main moisture axis will be just to our north and
west. Will hold on to isolated convection chances this afternoon mainly
across the eastern Missouri Ozarks and central Missouri. Highs
will be just a couple degrees cooler than the previous day as the
upper level ridge is weakening over the area.

Convection will develop late tonight across portions of Kansas
just to our west. This convection will move in our direction by
early tomorrow morning mainly affecting areas across southeast
Kansas and maybe extreme western Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PW values will increase on Friday and Friday night as the upper
level system moves across the central portion of the country and
pulls in a little bit of a tropical connection from the Pacific
and the western Gulf of Mexico. Widespread convection will develop
across the entire area Friday afternoon and Friday night. Some of
this convection will be efficient rain producers and much needed
rainfall coming to the Ozarks. QPF will be generally average
around an inch to an inch and a half for the entire area.

The system will exit the Midwest region on Saturday and the
majority of the rain chances will slowly transition from west to
east during the day on Saturday lingering across the eastern
Ozarks through Saturday afternoon. Anyone outdoors this weekend
will need to monitor thunderstorms and be mindful of lightning
dangers. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Isolated to widely scattered convection will again be possible
Sunday with better chances south and east of I-44. Rain chances
will go up for Labor Day or Monday afternoon and Monday night as a
front will move into the region and interact with another
shortwave moving across the Midwest. The front will linger across
the area through Wednesday and continue to bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable if not
a few degrees below average because of clouds and rain in the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light south-southeast
winds between 5 to 10 knots can be expected with a few clouds
around 5k feet by midday and afternoon. Will hold off on any
convection in the TAFs today except for JLN...will mention a
PROB30 group for TS and CB by early tomorrow morning after 09z.
Otherwise no aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks today.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin





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