Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 241718
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Early this morning...a high amplitude upper level ridge was
located across the Mississippi River valley while a long wave
trough was situated over the Great Basin region with an
associated closed low over southwestern Wyoming.

At the surface...high pressure was located across the
southeastern US while a quasi-stationary frontal boundary was
located from the Mid-Atlantic states across the Ohio Valley into
the Central Plains states. A second cold front was located along
the Front Range of the Rockies.

As the long wave trough continues to move towards the Northern
Plains today...it will begin to push the cold front along the
Rockies eastward. As it does...convection will break out along the
front. At this time...it looks like the better dynamics as well as
the higher PW values will be located north and west of our CWA.

Temperatures once again will be in the mid to upper 80s for this
afternoon with lows tonight in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

As the trough lifts out into the Upper Midwest on Sunday...a piece
of the southern portion will split and close off over northern
Mexico and begin to retrograde westward. Meanwhile...the surface
front begins to pick up speed during the overnight hours on
Saturday and looks like it will clear the CWA by early Sunday
evening. However...moisture will continue to be lifted up and over
the surface front with post-frontal showers continuing through
Monday morning. Do not expect rainfall amounts to be as great as
the higher PW values will be back to the south and west.
Overall...models continue to back off on QPF amounts for this
area.

The passage of the surface front will herald a much cooler and
drier air mass into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the
coolest days of the forecast period with morning lows potentially
dropping into the mid to upper 40s in some areas.

As the long wave trough lifts out of the Great Lakes region
Wednesday into Thursday...the upper level ridge will once again
reestablish itself across the region. By the end of the
week...highs could once again be approaching 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the forecast
period. Scattered afternoon cumulus will persist Today. Winds
will remain southerly around 5-10 kts. A cold front will slowly
edge toward the area Overnight and through the day on Sunday
providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Included in the
JLN TAF however will leave out of the SGF and BBG TAFs for now
since it likely won`t occur until the end of the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Burchfield



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