Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Larger band of showers and storms has shifted eastward into
eastern MO this morning with another area of storms developing
over northeast OK / southeast KS underneath the cutoff low
pressure system affecting the region. Stronger storms developed
further to the south over central AR / Northern LA in the vicinity
of a 50 knot low level jet and low level moist axis over the lower
Miss Valley.

Rainfall totals so far averaged around three quarters of an inch
over eastern and central portions of the forecast area, with
higher amounts around one and a half to two inches along an axis
from Gravois Mills to Bolivar to Cassville.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Precipitation chances and coverage have been the main focus for
the short term forecast. As the upper low moves along the
Interstate 44 corridor, cooler mid level temperatures will
destabilize the region, especially during the afternoon. Even
though drier air will be advecting in from the southwest, it looks
like there will still be enough moisture around to warrant mainly
30-50% chances for showers with isolated thunderstorms through the

Will taper precipitation chances from southwest to northeast
through the evening as the system exits the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Model output has been consistent with storm system movement across
the region during the upcoming work week, so will keep
precipitation chances going pretty much as they have been for the
past few days. Late Sunday into Monday, on open upper wave and
surface trough will move across the region. Dynamics and
instability look pretty meager so don`t think we`ll see much in
the way of severe storms.

The following system looks deeper with better instability so will
need to watch this one closely, not just for severe potential but
also persistent heavy rainfall as it moves slowly eastward,
allowing a longer moisture access period.

Temperatures through much of next week will remain near to
slightly below normal with lower diurnal temperature changes due
to increased cloud cover.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Low pressure will move over the Ozarks during the day today. This
will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the regions
terminals through today. Periods of IFR and MVFR will occur this
morning across the region near and under areas of rainfall.
Elsewhere MVFR to VFR ceilings will occur. With the scattered
nature of the precipitation, vicinity showers was used for much of
the day. MVFR ceilings will occur again tonight as the low moves
east of the area and low cloud cover moves over the region on the
back side of the low.




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