Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
212 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Areas of fog and drizzle will persist this morning as moisture
advection continues within deepening southerly flow. This flow was
a result of an upper low now positioned over the central High
Plains. This feature will transition slowly eastward today while a
shortwave or vorticity lobe swings around the eastern periphery
of this low into the Ozarks region. This feature will generate
scattered showers mainly across the eastern Ozarks eastward into
eastern Missouri. Given the associated cold mid level temps and
steepening lapse rates a thunderstorm or two is possible across
south central Missouri this afternoon.

The upper low will lift northeast across the region tonight and
begin to fill. Expect clouds along with patchy fog to again
prevail. Could also see patchy if not areas of drizzle tonight.

Temperatures will be relatively mild despite the cloud cover and
temperatures will remain above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

A more substantial warm up is expected Friday into Saturday as
deep southerly to southwesterly flow persist in the wake of the
exiting upper low. Cloud cover could limit warming potential but
still expect highs near 60 Friday and lower 60s Saturday.

Meanwhile a powerful jet stream and series of storm systems will
slam onto the west coast the next few days. This jet stream will
carve out an upper low over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi River Valley later Saturday into Sunday. The Ozarks
will be on the northern periphery of this system. The result be a
chance of showers as early as Saturday afternoon and evening
across south central Missouri then across most of the area
Saturday night and Sunday. Showers will be most widespread across
far southern Missouri and a few rumbles of thunder will be

Cooler but relative mild weather will follow this system early
next week. However a pattern change will evolve next week as an
upper level ridge builds along the west coast.This will dig an
upper trough across Rockies that will shift into the central U.S.
later next week. Colder temperatures more typical of late January
will return during the middle to later part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Dewpoints continue to rise this evening and flight conditions have
dropped into IFR. Much of the upcoming forecast will be in IFR,
with a potential of some MVFR by mid afternoon Thursday, but then
dropping back into IFR during the evening. Could still potentially
see some LIFR develop at BBG/JLN overnight in some dense fog. Best
potential of showers/thunder on Thursday will be over the eastern
half of the CWA.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.