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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220818
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Two main forecast challenges are featured over the next 36 hours.
The first being our first heat advisory of the season for extreme
southeastern Kansas and portions of central Missouri. The second
is the potential for thunderstorms late this evening through
Wednesday.

The 00z suite of model output offers little change to the going
forecast for today. The hottest day of the season so far is
expected from both a temperature and heat index perspective.
Hottest areas will be the Osage Plains of extreme southeastern
Kansas and portions of west central and central Missouri.
Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the
low/mid 70s will result in heat index values around 105 degrees
for several hours. The going heat advisory is well placed with no
need for any alterations. For areas along the Ozark Plateau and
points to the southeast, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees.

A cold front is currently moving through portions of the plains
states and upper Midwest. This front will continue to steadily
slide southeastward with time today, and become a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening for areas near the MO/IA
state line. How these storms end up behaving will have
consequences on our chances for rain later this evening and well
into Wednesday. Several models support this thunderstorm activity
organizing into a linear system. System motion vectors (both
regular and forward propagating) are southerly. If a cold pool can
develop, this system could accelerate south at a decent clip. Much
will be dictated by mesoscale subtleties, and there is some
variance with the short range models as to just exactly when and
where this system will begin diving south. Bottom line, chances
for showers and storms look a bit better for much of the region
during the overnight hours, though we will have to keep an eye on
the evolution of storms to our north before better honing the
risk.

Will have to keep a close eye on how convection develops and
congeals this evening. There will be ample MUCAPE available to
this activity, with low level theta-e differences in the high 20s
this evening across our central Missouri counties. As a result, a
limited risk for severe winds is supported for areas along/north
of the Highway 54 corridor.

Heading into Wednesday, much will depend on how convection tonight
behaves. The cold pool associated with the convection may very
well become the effective cold front. Have maintained decent
chance PoPs for much of the area through Wednesday morning,
shifting south during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

After a brief respite from the heat Wednesday night and Thursday,
Friday through the weekend looks like typical July weather as high
pressure aloft builds back over the region. There will be a few
ridge riding shortwaves from time to time that will bring
intermittent chances for showers/storms, though most will remain
dry. Temperatures will be rather typical for late July, highs a
few degrees either side of 90 and lows in the 70s. The 00z suite
of model output continues to suggest yet another amplification of
the upper level pattern heading into next week. There is agreement
that another shot of cool air will spread into the eastern half of
the U.S. This would knock highs back to around 80 with lows in the
60s...and potentially cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Pilots can expect VFR conditions tonight through Tuesday.

Southerly winds will continue with surface high pressure centered
southeast of the area.

A front will approach the region late Tuesday night bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster