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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

The trough axis of a rather intense shortwave is moving across the
region this afternoon, with areas of light rain and drizzle
continuing in many locations. Through the rest of this afternoon,
most of the precipitation should remain along and east of Highway
65, with a few light snow showers/flurries likely mixing in late
this afternoon and early this evening.  Precipitation should end by
midnight tonight, with no wintry accumulation or impact expected.
Winds this afternoon will remain gusty, with speeds decreasing after
sunset as the surface low beings to pull away.

As that shortwave exists to the east overnight, skies should clear
from the west/northwest fairly quickly as subsidence kicks in. At
the same time, surface ridging will start to nose into the area from
the Southern Plains late tonight, with winds decreasing considerably
as a result.  With this afternoon`s light rain, this should result
in at least patchy fog where 1. clearing 2. light winds and 3. wet
ground all coincide.  For now that looks most likely along and north
of an Anderson to Osage Beach line, though clearing trends will need
to be monitored overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

As consolation for today`s miserable conditions, the next three days
look to be spectacular for much of the region.  Temperatures Monday
should warm into the 50s in most spots as sun returns, with readings
ranging from the low 50s across the eastern Ozarks to nearly 60
across southeastern Kansas.  Even warmer conditions are expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east over the area,
with temperatures across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas
approaching 70 degrees by Wednesday.  Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday a shortwave will top the
aforementioned ridge, driving a cold front south through the region
Thursday.  Precipitation chances look to be low Thursday, but
temperatures will be cooler, with highs back in the 40s.
Temperatures will then stay around seasonal averages into weekend,
as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann