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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220449
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cirrus clouds from the south are approaching the area this
afternoon. This has not impeded heating as highs are around 90.
This is also the start of higher moisture approaching the area.
Models are in general agreement that any precip will hold off
until after 2am. Areas southeast of a West Plains to Eminence
line have the highest chance of seeing some scattered showers and
storms.

Widespread cloud cover will likely exist across the southeast half
of the area Thursday as Tropical Storm Cindy moves up into
Texas/Louisiana. Off and on showers and storms will exist mainly
across the southeast third of the area. This will likely keeps
temps cooler than the past few days. Moisture will continue to
increase with PW values around 2 in across that area. While an
isolated strong storm is possible, severe weather is not expected
Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Tropical system will continue to move up into Arkansas Thursday
night into Friday. At the same time mid level energy will be
moving by to the north which will push a cold front down into the
area Friday morning. While there are a few model differences
remaining, it still appears that areas south of I-44 will have
the best chance of showers and storms with rainfall amounts
generally less than 1.00 inch. Much higher rainfall amounts will
occur to our south and east. Given high moisture content and some
model difference we will still need to monitor for any small
pockets of heavy rainfall. A few isolated strong to marginally
severe storms are possible Friday however still think better
chances will be to our south and east, more closely tied to the
tropical system.

While the global models differ some on the weekend, it does appear
that high pressure will begin to move into the area. A few showers
are possible as the EURO suggests however not as confident in
this. High temps regardless will be in the 70s to around 80 which
will likely last into early next week. Very comfortable weather
for the official start of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Low level moisture will increase from the south late tonight and
Thursday as Tropical Storm Cindy pushes onshore from the Gulf of
Mexico. MVFR is expected over most of southern Missouri by mid-
morning with IFR expected around Branson.

Ceilings will improve somewhat in the afternoon, however scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible around Branson. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions can be expected with these storms.

Ceilings will then once again begin to lower Thursday night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Schaumann