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000
FXUS63 KSGF 221703
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WIND PROFILER
NETWORK DEPICTED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH HAS TOUCHED
OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OPENS UP AND
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEPICT ADDITIONAL LOBES OF ENERGY COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WE WILL THEN BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. FIRST
OFF...THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTO THE
LOWER 80S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE POSITION OF
THE MEAN LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS AND A GLANCE AT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
PLOTS INDICATES THAT THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO RECEIVE MCS ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PERIOD FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH 20 TO 30
POPS BEYOND THAT POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND COULD SEE
SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 21-22Z WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG