Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Another dry cold front is poised to drop through the region today.
Pressure gradient will tighten ahead of it this morning and continue
into the early afternoon. This will result in southwest winds 15 to
25 mph with winds coming around to the west-northwest after
frontal passage. Winds will diminish between 21Z-00Z. With dry
airmass, warm temperatures in the upper 50s combined with the
strong winds and relative humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent
range will once again see elevated fire weather conditions, with
parameters just below red flag criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Northwest mid and upper level flow will continue through Friday with
a dry weather pattern and temperatures at or slightly below normal.
Overall pattern then under goes a change for the weekend as medium
range models suggest a more pronounced upper level trough will drop
southeastward this weekend allowing for surface cyclogenesis to take
place over Texas. This will likely spread moisture northward into
the area Saturday night giving us the next decent chance for some
widespread precipitation from Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Given expected lows in the middle 30s, there could be some snow
mixing in with the rain late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning but not expecting any impacts or even accumulation.

Some model differences show up for the early part of next week with
the speed of the next trough. GFS slower, keeping area in southwest
flow aloft, while ECMWF slides a sharp trough across the region.
Overall, blends keep dry conditions for this time frame along with a
slow warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Pilots can expect VFR conditions through tonight as a dry cold
front pushes across the region. Surface winds will increase shift
to the west and northwest this afternoon with frequent gusts over
20 kts. Winds will gradually subside tonight. Cloud cover will
increase late tonight into Thursday with ceilings possibly
approaching MVFR category Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster



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