Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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273
FXUS63 KSGF 261728
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1228 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...18z Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Surface low pressure across the plains and an upper level short
wave were acting to shift the upper ridge that was over the
region yesterday to the east of the Ozarks. The surface low
however, is expected by the models to make little to no progress
to the east through today, keeping the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas in the warm sector south of the warm front now across
northern Missouri.

A few storms over northeastern Kansas early this morning were
moving to the east. Mesoscale and short range models were not
handling this well at all this morning. The GFS did show some
depiction of the storms, but will need to see if they can hold
together with the current hostile environment over the Ozarks
region.

The southerly flow will help bring more moisture from the Gulf
into the region through the day today. A strong capping inversion
noted on last evening`s sounding and continued by the forecast
soundings through tonight should keep storms from forming through
today and through tonight. If a storm or two do develop, they
will be elevated in nature with large hail the primary concern.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Today`s surface low is expected to wash out leaving a
stationary/warm front across central Missouri as lee cyclogenesis
occurs and another surface low develops over eastern
Colorado early Saturday morning. Deep southerly to southwesterly
flow will continue to pump moisture into the region through early
Saturday as the surface low moves across the plains.

A strong low level jet will begin to impinge on the region as
several short wave troughs move through the upper level
southwesterly flow and across the Ozarks. Forecast soundings have
been consistent in showing a very unstable airmass in place
across the region Saturday afternoon and evening with 3800 to 4500
J/kg of ML CAPE. Increasing low level convergence and a weakening
cap will act to kick off thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
continue into the evening. Indications and sounding analogs have
shown a consistent signal for large hail to the size of baseballs
and a damaging wind signal. Much of this will depend on the mode
the storms ultimately take. More wind damage with bowing segments
verses large hail with more clusters or individual supercells.
This will be more of a mesoscale forecast issue to watch Saturday.

The system looks to move through the region by Sunday morning to
early Sunday afternoon depending of your model of choice. Either
way, this will lead to the potential for lingering thunderstorms.
Overall, the end of the Memorial Day weekend looks to be fairly
nice with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s Sunday and
Monday with skies becoming partly cloudy later Sunday and mostly
sunny on Monday.

The first half of next week looks fair as well with the next
potential for rain and storms coming Thursday into Friday. This
will be the result of a warm front over the area and an upper
level trough moving across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Low hanging cumulus was noted across much of the area early this
afternoon. This should continue through the rest of today and into
tonight. In fact we should hang right around VFR and MVFR
thresholds for all three sites through the evening. Overnight
cloud bases are forecast to lower a bit further as low level
moisture continues to increase. Can`t rule out a very isolated
thunderstorms, especially closer to the BBG area (continued the
VCs). Overnight winds will subside. There is still a low VIS
signal for all three sites. This was hard to ignore given
persistence in the models. Some improvement will be likely after
sunrise tomorrow, however, cloud bases should continue to be
rather low through the end of this cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Frye



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