Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

The threat for severe storms has diminished across southern
Missouri late this evening. Instability has decreased across the
region with the loss of daytime heating. Additionally, the 00Z
KSGF RAOB indicates an isothermal layer starting around 600 mb
which is likely inhibiting updraft strength. Widely scattered
convection will remain possible for a few more hours as weak
isentropic upglide interacts with a surface cold front and
remaining outflow boundaries. The threat for storms should be over
by about 3 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Extent and timing of thunderstorms later this afternoon into
tonight along with the potential for some storms reaching severe
limits the main forecast concerns.

Focus for thunderstorm development will be associated with a
southward moving cold front entering central Missouri this
afternoon. Front will generate enough lift to eliminate impact of
remaining cap as surface temperatures have not quite been able to
get to convective temperature despite strong low level warm
advection. Better mid level lapse rates and extra UVV associated
with a vort max descending southward into the Mississippi Valley
favor the severe threat to extend from the northeast portions of
the SGF CWA northward toward STL. Convergence along front and
breaking the cap should allow at least scattered storms to take
advantage of the 0-6 KM bulk shear of around 40 knots to lead to
the development of organized line segments. Favorable helicities
generated by southwest surface winds and northerly upper level
flow will need to be monitored for temporary supercellular
characteristics. It will be during these periods that the
potential for large hail will be increased as well as damaging
winds given the dry air in the mid levels.

While some variation exists in how the system evolves later
today...models are in good agreement on weakening storm
development tonight as they track into southern Missouri where
instability diminishes and CIN quickly increases.

Have trended highs on Monday down a bit though still on the upper
end of model consensus.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

Western ridge to deamplify during the early portion of the
period though shortwaves to punctuate forecast with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Moisture pooling along a stalled frontal boundary will add to the
seasonably warm temperatures to send heat indices well into the 90s
Tuesday and over 100 Wednesday. The rebuilding western ridge then
looks to provide some relief on Thursday...all while a meandering
surface front and periodic shortwaves keep up the chance for daily
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Schaumann




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