Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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871
FXUS63 KSGF 200542
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Surface high pressure is located across the Gulf Coast states this
afternoon as an area of low pressure is located across the western
Plains. This has resulted in southerly winds developing across
the area. Southerly winds will gust over 20mph at times this
afternoon into Saturday. A warmer air mass is spreading into the
area as temperatures this afternoon are currently in the lower to
middle 50s.

The southerly winds will usher in an increase in low level
moisture tonight into Saturday. The gusty winds should result more
in the way of low level stratus clouds developing tonight into
Saturday. The increasing clouds, southerly winds, and warmer air
mass will keep lows in the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight.
Highs on Saturday will warm into the middle to upper 50s under
mostly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The upper level low and surface low will push across the Plains
Sunday then across the region Sunday night allowing a cold front
to sweep across the area Sunday evening/night. Some scattered light
rain or drizzle will be possible Saturday night into Sunday as
increase moisture continues to spread north into the area ahead of
the system. Lows on Saturday night will remain in the 40s as
highs in the 60s are expected Sunday. Gusty southerly wind gusts
around 30mph will occur Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens
across the region ahead of the approaching area of surface low
pressure.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across the area as
the front and system tracks across the region. The better
coverage/higher rainfall amounts will generally occur east of
Highway 65 and south of I-44 but the entire area will likely see
some at least some light rain from this system. Locations across
south central Missouri could see up to an inch of rainfall with
this system as amounts decrease to the west and north.

Shear will increase across the area as the system approaches and
moves through the area. A few strong to marginally severe storms
with wind gusts being the main risk will be possible but over all
instability will be weak limited the overall severe risk. If more
instability can develop the strong to severe potential would be a
little better.

Gusty west to northwest winds will develop behind the front on
Monday with gust around 40mph expected. A cooler air mass will
spread into the area behind the front but will not be as cold as
past air mass over the last several weeks. Highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s can be expected each day through
much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Broken deck of cirrus will continue to stream through the area
overnight. MVFR ceilings have made it as far north as Northwest
Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma and will continue to move north
overnight. MVFR ceilings will move into the TAF sites into the
early morning hours Saturday. IFR ceilings are possible by
sunrise Saturday and continue through the morning, especially at
JLN and SGF. Low level wind shear will continue overnight at the
TAF sites and last through the day tomorrow. Surface winds will
remain out of the south with gusts to 25kts possible. No
widespread precipitation is expected. Ceilings will improve
somewhat Saturday afternoon before returning to IFR/MVFR Saturday
night.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield



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