Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 081814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
114 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

It was a gorgeous October day across the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s under sunny skies.

A cold front was approaching the region from the northwest, and
will be forced through southern Missouri by a pair of upper level
shortwave disturbances.

Water vapor shows the initial disturbance nearly aligned with the
surface front across central Kansas early this afternoon. A second
speed max was located across northwest Wyoming. Both of these
features will trigger showers over southeast Kansas and southern
Missouri tonight. Since cape values are progged to be under 100
j/kg or less, it may be difficult to generate any thunder.
Certainly no severe weather is expected tonight.

Look for overnight lows to cool into the middle 50s. As a much
cooler airmass continues to flow across southern Missouri
tomorrow, afternoon highs may struggle to warm out of the 60s.
Sunshine will be welcomed by the afternoon hours, while northerly
breezes persist between 5 and 12 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

The overall weather pattern from Friday night through all of next
week doesn`t appear to change at all. This will lead to an
extended period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures.

Friday night into Saturday morning looks to be the chilliest night
of the next 7 days, with lows well into the 40s for most

From early Saturday morning, a strong warming trend will ensue
with temperatures bouncing back into the 70s by the afternoon.

Readings in the 80s will be common Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Models do indicate a disturbance quickly passing through Monday
afternoon and evening, bringing a front down with it. There are
some minor possibilities of light showers forming along this
front, however, most if not all locations will remain dry through

Through the rest of next week, more northwest flow is expected
with temperatures reaching the 70s on an afternoon basis.

Essentially no clear signals for precipitation exist within the
next 7 to 10 days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon under light west to
southwest winds. A cold front will approach the terminals late
tonight with scattered showers possible along and behind the
front. Not expecting much thunder as this point. Showers will
remain possible through early tomorrow morning before clearing.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.