Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 081923
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A cold front is slowly making its way south through the forecast
area this afternoon, having reached roughly the I-44 corridor by 2
PM.  This front will continue south into northern Arkansas tonight
before stalling out.  A few thunderstorms will remain possible this
afternoon and evening along/ahead of the front, though with the best
moisture and low level convergence becoming focused increasingly
south of the area, any activity should be widely scattered and
generally only affect the southern-most counties in Missouri.  While
there is an outside chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon,
the overall severe weather threat is limited.

Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should dissipate by
mid evening as the sun sets, with a cooler night on tap as a much
drier airmass builds into the region along with an area of surface
high pressure.  With that high moving overhead tonight, some patchy
of fog might be possible, though enough dry air should advect into
the region to keep the overall fog threat to a minimum, despite
recent rains. Vis and dewpoint trends will be monitored this
evening, however.

A rather comfortable day is then on tap for the region for
Wednesday, as that surface high remains solidly in control across
the area.  Temperatures will be on the cool side of average, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s/around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

As that high shifts to the east tomorrow night, the front will start
to return back over the region as a warm front.  Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along that warm front Wednesday night and may
affect western portions of the CWA Thursday morning, though they
should weaken with eastward progression on Thursday.  The warm front
will continue to move/mix northeast across the region Thursday as
heights begin to rise aloft.

Much warmer and more humid conditions will return to the region
Friday through the weekend, as the upper ridge currently over the
Intermountain West becomes established over the Central Plains.
Temperatures in the mid 90s can be expected Saturday and Sunday,
especially over southeastern Kansas and western/southwestern
Missouri.  While by no means unusual for this time of year,
Saturday`s mid 90s highs may end up being the warmest of the year so
far for Springfield (91 so far) and perhaps Joplin (94 so far).

By early next week, the upper ridge will begin to break down as
northwest flow strengthens across the Great Lakes.  This should
spell cooler temperatures for the region during at least the first
portion of next workweek, along with the potential for additional
rounds of rainfall, as a cold front moves south through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A weak cold front is currently moving through the Missouri Ozarks
this early afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to the north-
northwest with the passage of the front. It will be closer to 21z
before the front reaches BBG terminal. For the rest of the
afternoon...BBG will have VCTS and CB around before the front
clears through. A few gusts for JLN and SGF up to 15 to 20 knots
possible by mid afternoon before winds relax near sunset.

The only question that remains will be for possible fog
development tonight. With the recent rainfall...clear skies
tonight...and light winds...could result in at least some patchy
fog late tonight. Guidance is reluctant to see this possibility.
With this update...will not put it into the TAFs but later
forecasts may need to reevaluate this potential with later
updates.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Griffin





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