Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230807

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
307 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...The Start of a Potentially Active and Stormy Weather Pattern
Begins Today Lasting Through The End of the Week...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

There is not much change in the latest forecast update for this
week. Moisture is still slowly returning to the area with south to
southeast winds. It will take another 12 to 24 hours or so before
we see some good quality moisture and dewpoints make it into the
Missouri Ozarks area. It is quiet for the time being across the
entire area as blow off high clouds moving in from deep convection
near the Red River Valley. All the short term high-res models
indicate scattered showers and storms will start to develop just
to our west later this morning and drift into our western areas of
southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri by late morning to
midday. Starting to see the first signs of this on regional radar
over towards Wichita as this discussion.

The current thinking is this area of showers and elevated storms
will try to move into the western half of the area today but
eventually dissipate due to lack of moisture and instability. The
main threat for the midday storms will be lightning and maybe some
small hail.

We will then draw our attention to another impulse along with a
strengthening low level jet tonight over eastern Kansas. Models
try to develop another round of showers and storms very late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. This convection may have a
few strong to isolated severe storms possible over the western
half of the area with hail up to quarters and gusty winds the main

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The confidence level with the timing and location of storms from
Tuesday through Thursday is still low to medium at this time. It
is a very challenging forecast with different factors like
mesoscale features in play for the middle of the week. One aspect
is certain, there will be off and on chances for scattered showers
and storms through the middle of the week with increasing
potential for severe weather as the week goes along with better
dynamics come into play. Models have been persistent on having
another mid level wave come across the area midday Tuesday through
the evening with a slight better potential for severe storms
across the northwest half of the area. All modes of severe weather
could be possible with large hail and damaging winds the main
threat...can`t rule out an isolated tornado.

Another round of showers and storms will develop Wednesday
afternoon and evening with a slight risk for severe weather over
the northern half of the area. By the middle of the week we will
have better moisture and increasing better dynamics aloft for all
modes of severe weather.

The upper level shortwave will finally make a move out into the
central Plains region sometime late Thursday into Friday. There
are some timing differences between GFS and ECMWF for the end of
the week but models show a strong negatively titled wave moving
out across Kansas. Thinking is our best potential for severe
weather across the area may be late Thursday into Friday. With
very good instability and shear...very large hail will be the main
threat followed by damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will
be possible giving the low level slightly backed wind profiles
and moisture quality.

The main shortwave energy moves away from the area by the weekend but
lingering moisture and mid level weakness aloft will develop
additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Upper ridging was across the area late this evening with light
surface wind and high pressure to our east. Convection fired this
afternoon/evening in the high Plains ahead of a dryline/frontal
system and upper level wave. May see remnant convection towards
morning try to sneak into the western CWA. Not enough confidence
to include in TAFS right now, so will continue with mid/high level
clouds from the convective complex out west overnight and into
Monday. A strong thermal cap will advect into the area on Monday
and should help to suppress convection through the day. Will
maintain VFR conditions through the forecast for all 3 TAF sites.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.