Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

After a fairly soggy last couple of days, today doesn`t look much
better. True, rainfall amounts will not be anywhere near what they
were on Thursday or Friday, but temperatures will remain cool and
drizzle/light showers will continue on and off through a good
portion of the day today as an upper level low pressure system
moves over our region. Breezy northerly/easterly winds can also be

Clouds will slowly begin to decrease later tonight and early
morning Sunday. If clouds decrease faster than currently
advertised, fog may become a concern with the recent rainfall and
wet grounds.

Speaking of recent rainfall, residual flooding concerns will
continue across areas generally south of the Highway 54 corridor
through tonight, though today`s light rainfall and limited QPF
should keep additional aggravation of ongoing flooding to a

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The second half of the weekend will certainly be much better in
terms of weather conditions than the first half. Upper level
ridging will begin to spread into the region Sunday allowing for
a warming trend to take shape. This warming trend will continue
through the week. Unfortunately, the nice weather will not last
long as another series of upper level disturbances (associated
with a higher amplitude trough just west of our area) pass over
head through the end of the week.

As each short wave pushes through, we will need to watch rainfall
amounts. After experiencing quite a bit of rainfall this week, it
will not take much to cause additional flooding issues late next
week given the already saturated soils. In addition to those
possibilities, we will also monitor mid to late week next week for
severe weather chances (climatologically favorable if nothing
else). Globals have been very bullish with the amount of dynamics
with next week system(s) so this timeframe will certainly need to
be monitored.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Upper level low pressure will continue to bring IFR ceilings to
southern Missouri for much of today along with areas of drizzle.
Questions still remain regarding when ceilings will begin to
improve. We have gone on the pessimistic side and a slower IFR
departure given that the mid-levels of the atmosphere will remain
very cold all day (and supportive of IFR).

Low clouds should then exit the region early this evening with
mid-level clouds hanging around for much of the evening. There are
then indications that clearing will take place with an increasing
fog risk late tonight.

As for surface winds, brisk northeast winds will continue today
before winds diminish this evening.




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