Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 171726
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Bitterly cold temperatures were observed over extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Several readings were well below
zero as Arctic high pressure settled over the Ozarks. The clear
skies and calm winds allowed for max radiational cooling.

Despite these cold conditions, a big warming trend will commence
today, as afternoon highs reach the 20s.

For tonight, overnight lows will only fall into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

The Arctic high will progress east of the Ozarks bringing a return
of southerly winds. These winds will eventually advect a Gulf
airmass into southern Missouri for the weekend. Therefore,
temperatures will warm several degrees on a daily basis. As a
matter of fact, by Friday, temperatures in the 50s are expected.
Readings in the 60s are possible by Saturday and maybe Sunday.

These warm temperatures and increase in Gulf moisture will set the
stage for a cold season episode of thunderstorms. The 00z GFS is
signaling a possibility of organized storms when comparing the
synoptic structure with CIPS analogs. Given this persistent
signal for the last several model runs, we will introduce a
mention of severe thunderstorms for Sunday.

Widespread precipitation is expected given the large scale forcing
ahead of this spring like storm system. Will have to watch for the
potential of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals as surface high
pressure slides to the southeast. Southwesterly winds will develop
and increase on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Foster


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