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156
FXUS63 KSGF 242320
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
620 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Closed upper low was tracking across the eastern Ozarks early this
afternoon with shortwave energy on the western side of the low.
Scattered showers started developing towards midday over the
eastern 2/3 of the CWA and this trend will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon as the low continues to slide
southeast.

Main forecast focus will be with upcoming unsettled weather on
Friday into Saturday night and the potential for some strong to
severe storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

For tonight, upper level low pressure system will continue to dive
southeast into the southeastern U.S. with a dry airmass pushing
into the area. There should be a clearing sky this evening with
winds becoming light and variable across most of the area. Could
see some patchy to areas of fog developing overnight and towards
sunrise, especially near the lakes, creeks and streams as
temperatures cool to near the dewpoint. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 40s tonight.

A nice warmup is expected on Thursday with an upper level ridge
building into the area and low level warm advection. Temperatures
should warm back into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

By Thursday night, much warmer mid level temperatures will begin
to push in from the west and we should see a large thermal cap
develop across the area from Thursday night through Friday. This
should keep most convective precipitation chances at bay until at
least Friday night. With a boundary positioned west to east over
the area and a low level jet setting up from southwest to
northeast, may see some elevated convection develop during the
night, where large hail would be the main risk.

Heading into Saturday, the thermal cap will weaken during the
afternoon with over 4000 j/kg of CAPE developing by 21z-00z along
with a cold front starting to push through. Our best chances at
severe weather this weekend will occur late Saturday into Saturday
night. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main severe
weather risks. There may be some lingering convection on Sunday
morning across the southern portions of the CWA, but overall a
clearing trend from northwest to southeast is expected on Sunday
as an upper level trough kicks eastward through the area.

We will remain in northwest flow after this trough moves through
for much of the upcoming work week. This will bring occasional
chances of showers/storms and normal to slightly below normal
temperatures to close out the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 area TAF
period. The only exception will be the potential for lower end
MVFR patchy to areas of fog possible around sunrise Thursday
morning. This potential is highlighted in a TEMPO group between
10z to 13z. There is very small potential the fog could be in the
IFR category but will watch trends later this evening.

Otherwise VCSH will dissipate this evening around sunset and
skies will be generally mostly clear tonight and tomorrow. Winds
will become light and variable with a return to southerly breezes
on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin