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000
FXUS63 KSGF 100446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

The last of some stubborn stratus/fog is dissipating over south
central MO. Temperatures rebounded to around 50 deg F in areas
where the sky cleared earlier. Have some concerns about fog
redevelopment overnight over south central MO given the moist
ground conditions and residual low level moisture. The SREF has
higher chances for fog development over southeast MO, so have
left the patchy fog in the fcst grids for late tonight.

Southwest winds and warmer temperatures are still expected for
Mon. Will continue to mention the elevated fire danger in the HWO,
mainly for lighter grass and wind exposed litter fuels which dry
more quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

Continued warm weather is expected Tue. MOS guidance continues to
trend upward with high temperatures Tue afternoon ahead of an
approaching front. Went close to a MOS blend. The fly in the
ointment will be increasing clouds late in the day, but most areas
should be in the 70s during the afternoon.

A strong front is progged to move through the area Tue night as a
quick moving shortwave moves southeast from the Plains into our
area by 12z Wed. Low level thermal profiles support a rain to snow
transition for much of the area (where precip occurs...best
chances over the northeast cwfa). Surface temperatures probably
won`t support much more than a minor wet/slushy accumulation
should any accumulation occur at all.

After a cool/chilly day Wed, temperatures will rebound again
for the end of the week. There is decent consensus for another
southeast moving quick hitting "clipper-like" system moving
through the region Sat night into Sunday as we remain in a
persistent upper level northwest flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

Light fog and LLWS will be the main concerns overnight and early
Monday morning at the terminals. MVFR visibility will be possible
at SGF and BBG overnight, with JLN perhaps touching MVFR briefly.
IFR is not currently expected. LLWS will develop late tonight as
well, easing mid morning Monday as surface winds become gusty from
the southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell