


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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390 FXUS63 KSGF 100501 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (<10-15%) of rain today and tomorrow, then higher rain chances (30-60%) continue through late week into the weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few locations may see heat index values around 100 degrees towards the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Surface high pressure over the region was allowing for a rather nice day. Dewpoints were still in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s across the Ozarks, but with temperatures in the 80s across the area. Though there is some instability due to the airmass over the region, there is no good forcing mechanism to get any showers or storms going. A weak surface trough is expected to move across the Plains this afternoon into the evening which may produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms west and north of the Ozarks. Latest model trends and current satellite imagery continues the question as to whether or not these storms will impact our area. The latest guidance suggest rather low probabilities of precipitation (<10%). Expectation therefore is that most areas will remain dry this afternoon and overnight. If storms form in the plains and if a storm can push southward enough they may pose a marginal severe threat, though the locations most likely for this to occur would be for a small portion of northwestern Bourbon County Kansas and points to the north and west. If a storm can make it that far, the main concerns would be for winds up to 50-60 mph as the main threats. The most probable timing would be later tonight after midnight. That being said, this would be a conditional threat (IF storms can push southward enough), with most of the area expected to remain dry. Thursdays pattern looks remarkable similar to that of today`s. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere. A rather weak short wave moves through the region with <10-15% pops area- wide. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere. Otherwise, Thursday will likely be another warm summer day with light and variable winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The overall pattern does begin to show signs of change as we head into the end of the work week and the weekend. Surface flow begins to become southwesterly, allowing for more moisture to return to the region. Several upper level shortwave troughs are forecast by models to push through the area as early as Friday afternoon. This pattern shift will allow for afternoon (30-60%) shower and storm chances. The day is not expected to be a washout, but localized heavier rain will be possible wherever rain does occur. Expect widespread temperatures in the low 90s on Friday, and the mid to upper 80s over the weekend. Some locations on Friday, thanks to the increased dewpoints and temperatures, may see heat index values climb to around the 100 degree mark Friday afternoon. The overall pattern changes little through the weekend allowing for daily, mainly afternoon, rain chances (30-60%) through the weekend. An active pattern looks as though it will last into next week, with models showing several shortwave troughs pushing through the region, bringing daily rain chances (30-50%). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the entire TAF period, with light and variable winds. Some patchy fog may be possible overnight at KBBG, however this is not expected to impact the flight category. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Melto