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000
FXUS63 KSGF 061745
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 103 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Variable cloud cover is in place this morning as a shortwave
passes to our southwest. Deep layer of dry air in place was too
much to overcome with the best forcing staying just to our
southwest. As a result little in the way of precipitation has been
observed in our neck of the woods this morning.

Another seasonably cool, though pleasant day is on tap for the
region. Biggest forecast question mark is whether or not we can
get an orderly exit to cloud cover. Models vary with just how fast
this will occur, though all agree it will occur. Based on recent
trends, have gone on the warm side of guidance (or even warmer in
some cases). Assuming clouds exit as expected most locations
should get into the 50s today, the only exception looks to be
across south central Missouri where slightly better snow cover may
keep readings a few degrees cooler.

Southerly winds will gradually increase over the area tonight and
especially on Friday. Mainly clear skies are expected through at
least midday Friday, with mid/high level clouds increasing from
west to east Friday afternoon. The combo of sunshine and warm
advection will help temperatures surge into the 60s across most of
the area Friday afternoon. Have gone several degrees above
guidance which has a cold bias these days and it remains possible
that we could be even warmer than currently forecast.

00z suite of model output continues to push an elongated,
positively tilted trough and associated cold front through the
region Friday night and Saturday. Adequate moisture and lift will
be available to produce areas of rain showers, particularly on
Saturday. Can`t rule out a mix of rain/snow, though temperatures
should remain above freezing preventing much of an impact. The fly
in the ointment with this front will be temperatures returning to
below average Saturday and Saturday night. Luckily this looks to
be short lived heading into the remainder of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

Southwest winds will begin to return on Sunday and start a nice
warming trend as we look into early next week. Monday looks very
nice with temperatures actually about 10 degrees above normal in
the middle maybe even upper 60s. Winds may be breezy and will need
to watch trends later on for any fire weather concerns of
dominant surface vegetation. Surface dewpoints will be slow to
recover at this point and mixing during the day may lead to lower
relative humidity values.

The flow will be mainly zonal for early next week with mild
temperatures for through Tuesday. Another cold front will move
into the area on Wednesday. This front will knock temperatures
down a little bit but not a big cold snap. The models suggest a
piece of the energy on the southwest end of the trough trying to
close off as it moves across the region. There will be decent rain
chances for Wednesday into Wednesday night. If the upper level low
tries to develop over head or near by...there could be just enough
cold air aloft associated with it to mix a few flakes of snow with
the rain before ending Wednesday evening. At this time surface
temperatures will be way above freezing and no accumulation
anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Clear skies and light winds will persist through the rest of
today. Eventually southeast breezes will increase to 5 to 10 mph
through the overnight hours.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday night. There
is a chance for some light rain showers with this feature.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer