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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251129
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Generally a mostly clear sky and light wind across the area early
this morning. Fairly muggy with temperatures in the mid 70s and
dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Main short term forecast focus will continue to be with the
heat/potential advisory and isolated to scattered convection.
Another front will bring better convection chances later in the
week and will be the main highlight in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Another warm day is in store for the area today with highs back in
the mid 90s for most locations. Afternoon heat index values are
expected to be in the upper 90s to around 104 degrees which will
be below criteria for a heat advisory. Like yesterday, will have a
risk of an isolated thunderstorm(s) which could lead to additional
convection with any strong outflow. No real organized severe
weather risk with little to no shear expected. Any convection
should dissipate by mid to late evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Wednesday will be similar temperature-wise with highs expected in
the mid 90s. Heat index values from 100 to 105 will be possible
with the highest readings over west central MO into southeast KS.
Will hold off on any headlines at this point as readings just
barely clip the criteria and we are still a day out. There is also
the potential for some afternoon convection northwest of the area
and cloud cover from that may affect afternoon temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A frontal system will be to our northwest on Wednesday night and
will be the focus for more organized convection over northern and
central MO, possibly across our far northern CWA late Wednesday
night. The front will push into the area on Thursday and through
the area Thursday night with additional thunderstorm chances
possible. This setup looks very similar to what occurred with our
most recent front where central MO had the best rain in the night
and by the time convection regenerated along the front the next
day, it was mainly down in Arkansas. Wherever it does rain
however, it will be heavy with PW values over 2 inches.

The deep moisture will slide to the south of the area on Friday
with a much drier air mass moving into the area Friday night into
the weekend. Temperatures through the weekend and into early next
week will be cooler as well with highs in the 80s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

A summertime high pressure system was controlling the weather over
much of the nation`s midsection. This feature will continue to
suppress the Ozarks airmass, bringing hot and dry conditions
through most of the work week.

Surface winds will be light and variable today and tonight.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer