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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

An upper level shortwave trough is currently pushing east across
the central U.S. early this morning. A very dry airmass is in
place across the region and only some high level clouds are
associated with the trough. Warm air advection will occur today
behind the trough and highs will top out in the middle to upper
50s.

A surface trough will pass through the region tonight into
Sunday. Southerly winds ahead of this trough will pull some low
level moisture into the region today and tonight. Slightly cooler
temperatures and light winds will likely interact with the low
level moisture to allow for some fog development tonight into
early Sunday morning. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than
those that occur this afternoon on Sunday and Monday, however
highs will remain in the 50s both afternoons.

A weak upper level disturbance will then pass through the region
Sunday night into Monday morning. A dry mid level airmass will be
in place ahead of this disturbance and will limit rain chances
keeping them south of the area. There could be a few sprinkles
here and there but overall most locations will remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

An upper level low will push into the northwest U.S. early next
week. Southerly flow and a warm air advection pattern will set
up over the region Monday night into the middle of next week ahead
of the upper level low. Highs will warm into the middle 50s to
lower 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. There could be
some showers from time to time as lift and an increase in moisture
occur within the warm air advection.

The upper level low will then push east across the Plains during
the middle of the week which will send a cold front into and
though the region on Thursday. Better widespread rain chances will
occur with the passage of the front. Behind the front a much
colder airmass will slam into the region. Highs on Friday will
struggle to warm to the freezing mark. As the upper level trough
pushes through the region, precipitation chances will remain
possible behind the cold front Thursday night into Friday. As the
colder temperatures spread into the area, rain will likely mix
with, then changeover to light snow Thursday night into Friday.
Any precipitation will then come to an end during the the day on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR conditions will continue into early this evening with brisk
southwest winds diminishing by sunset. A band of scattered to
broken clouds in the 2500-4000 foot layer is then expected to
develop and slowly shift south across the area from late this
evening into the overnight period. These clouds will result in
periodic MVFR ceilings. As the back edge of this cloud band slowly
shifts south across southern Missouri, there is a strong signal for
dense fog development. While timing is still in question,
confidence in dense fog development is high enough that LIFR was
included in prevailing groups late tonight and early Sunday
morning at JLN and SGF. At this time, it looks like the dense fog
will develop sooner at JLN as clouds will decrease earlier. The
forecast is much tougher for BBG as the clouds may not clear until
around sunrise. Thus, the window for dense fog development is much
smaller. We have handled this with a TEMPO group to IFR. Flight
conditions will only slowly improve Sunday morning as the low sun
angle will have a difficult time burning off the fog.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann