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000
FXUS63 KSGF 301743 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)

It`s been a quiet week regarding the weather but that`s about to
change over the weekend.

Water vapor indicated moisture streaming into the nations mid
section from the south Pacific. This moisture will interact with a
northern stream disturbance that is currently approaching British
Columbia.

Precipitation overspreading the Ozarks by Saturday morning will
result. The precipitation type through the weekend has been the
primary forecast challenge, but I think the 00z models just tipped
their hands regarding precip type.

Given the warm air advection structure in the mass fields, the GFS
and the ECMWF have trended warmer in the lower trop, that would
bring rain across southern and central Missouri through Sunday
morning.

Cold air will surge across the region Sunday afternoon, bringing a
chance for rain changing over to light snow into the Sunday
evening hours.

We are not confident that light snow Sunday afternoon and evening
will be heavy enough, or last long enough to accumulate much.
Therefore we will keep accumulations in check at the moment. 60
and 70 degree temperatures this week have warmed ground
temperatures, which is also a negative for snow accumulation.
Light snow occurring during the daylight hours is also a negative.

Rain and light snow will exit the Ozarks Sunday night, setting the
stage for mostly dry weather through the upcoming work week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)

Zonal flow will evolve Monday into Wednesday next week allowing
southerly flow to return across southern Missouri. This will boost
afternoon temperatures back into the 40s and possibly 50s on
Tuesday.

A weak disturbance will force another shot of Canadian air through
the area by Wednesday, causing temperatures to fall back toward
climatological norms.

There are some weak QPF signals with this disturbance, which could
bring a quick round of light snow or flurries. As for now we will
hold off on mentioning anything too specific since we`re still
about 5 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected at area aerodromes over the next 24
hours. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase, with
bases lowering to about 5kft (give or take) by the end of the
forecast cycle. Otherwise, surface high pressure will shift to our
east and light/variable winds will become more east to southeast
and gradually increase in speed heading into the daylight hours of
Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan