Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202343
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
643 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Scattered storms have develop across portions of the eastern
Ozarks and southern Missouri this afternoon. Scattered storms
will continue to develop into early this evening across these
areas and then begin to dissipate as the sun starts to set early
this evening. A dry air mass remains in place in the mid levels,
namely the 500-300mb layer of the atmosphere but better moisture
in the 700-500mb layer is in place, hence the better coverage in
storms today than yesterday.

These storms are pop up pulse type storms developing as
instability increases in the hot and humid air mass over the
area. Wind shear is very weak so these storms will move very
slowly to the east and will be fairly short lived in nature.

A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
this afternoon into early this evening primarily over south
central Missouri. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be the risk,
as the short lived nature of the updrafts and the warm air mass
will limit any hail risk. This risk will be very isolated in
nature as overall the drier air in the 500-300mb will limit
updrafts strengths once they hit the drier air. However, if
strong enough lift can occur from an outflow from a previous
storm, the drier air could be overcome creating the strong to
marginally severe risk, but will be the exception rather than the
rule.

Highs this afternoon will again top out in the lower to middle 90s
with heat index values in the 98 to 108 range. Lows tonight will
only drop into the middle to upper 70s.

Thursday will be very similar to today, as highs in the middle 90s
and heat index values of 98 to 108. Isolated storms will once
again occur during the late morning into the early evening hours
on Thursday. Coverage in the pop up storms should be a little
less than what is occurring this afternoon as slightly drier air
in the mid levels occur.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Friday and Saturday will continue to be very similar today and
Thursday as the upper level ridge of high pressure remains over
the region. Highs in the mid 90s to possibly the upper 90s in a
few spots can continue to be expected. Heat index values will top
out in the 100 to 110 range. At this time no changes planed to the
Excessive Heat Warning or Heat Advisory as they seem to cover
things well at this time. Late morning to early evening isolated
pop up storms will also remain possible each afternoon across
mainly the eastern Ozarks through Saturday.

Medium range models continue to show the upper level ridge of
high pressure over the region begin to flatten by late this
weekend into early next week. This will allow a cold front to
slide south through the region bringing slightly cooler conditions
and better widespread shower and thunderstorm potential to the
area. An upper level shortwave and another front are then expected
to track through the region during the middle of next week
bringing addition shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Pilots flying to area terminals can expect prevailing VFR
conditions. An isolated storm may impact the Springfield and
Branson terminals early this evening. Otherwise scattered cumulus
will develop during the afternoon hours.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ077-079>082-088>097-
     101>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078-083-098-106.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ097-101.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Foster


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