Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221747 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Waves of light rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorms
continue to enter from the south ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Oklahoma. This activity tended to weaken a bit as it moved
into the area this morning. Should see a better coverage of light
rain this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of the I-44
corridor, as the area will briefly reside beneath the right
entrance region of an upper level jet.

The potential exists for another break in the activity this
evening before another round of rain moves in tonight. Will be
assessing the latest mesoscale and short term models runs in the
coming hour or two and adjusting expectations accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Gulf moisture continues to stream into the Ozarks region this
morning in advance of an approaching disturbance. This disturbance
will force widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today
into Sunday.

While no severe storms are expected, sufficient elevated cape will
facilitate some thunderstorms, which is evident this morning over
south central Oklahoma.

Specific for today, this rainfall will be somewhat scattered in
nature, with the best areal coverage southeast of Interstate 44.
Rain will become more widespread after midnight tonight and into
Sunday, covering the entire region.

By Monday morning, all rain will exit the Ozarks, leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.75 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Deep northwest flow will become established over much of the lower
48 through the upcoming work week. This pattern will shut down the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing an extended period of dry weather.

As a matter of fact, we are not forecasting any precipitation all
next week. Temperatures in the 40s are expected on an afternoon
basis through Thursday. Another shot of Canadian air will then
surge through southern Missouri by Friday, bringing colder
temperatures.

As of now it looks as though Thursday night`s frontal passage will
be dry due to the lack of available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

Busy forecast over the next 24 hours and beyond. Another wave of
showers and a few embedded storms is entering the region from the
southwest. This will mainly affect SGF/BBG aerodromes, though a
shower or two at JLN remains possible. Ceilings have bounced
around quite a bit over the past 12 or so hours and this should
continue into this evening. Lowest ceilings (mainly low end MVFR)
should be observed with any rainfall. Higher ceilings (low end
VFR) should occur outside of any rain into early this evening.
Trends continue to suggest that a lowering of ceilings is likely
heading into tonight and certainly on Sunday as widespread
rainfall engulfs the area. A heavier brand of rain is expected
during this time, as a result MVFR visibility and a drop to IFR
ceilings is probable for overnight tonight into Sunday. Gusty
southeast winds will give way to low level wind shear once again
tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan






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