Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 271106
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Another active overnight across the Plains. A north south line of
convection extends across eastern Kansas, while another area is
located from northern Arkansas into the eastern Missouri Ozarks.
Short term models show a couple of branches of the low level
jet/moisture transport feeding into these storms and this low
level jet has nosed into the forecast area but is expected to diminish
by mid morning. Thus expect convection to maintain itself through
much of the morning over the eastern Ozarks and perhaps into
the early afternoon hours. Shear is rather weak and based on
latest radar trends expect storms to be non severe, although some
locally heavy rain will be possible.

500mb low currently over eastern Colorado will move into western
Kansas later today and into Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile main surface
boundary will remain well west of the area over Kansas and Oklahoma.
Both the NAM and GFS shows low level jet/moisture transport
increasing once again ahead of the wave from eastern
Oklahoma/western Arkansas later this afternoon and evening nosing
into the Missouri Ozarks which will sustain more convection. Given
amount of convection expected this morning question will be how
much instability can be generated. Per SPC day1 outlook, area is
in a marginal risk with the main threat being large hail and
damaging winds.

Another area of convection will develop over Kansas near the
boundary this afternoon and move east, possibly developing into an
MCS affecting the forecast area overnight. Although deep layer shear
looks to be marginal severe weather will still be possible
if the storms do indeed congeal into an MCS, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. If line segments can form 0-3KM
shear vectors would favor an isolated tornado threat with any
eastward surges of the line segments, especially in the far
western areas.

Precipitable water values remain around 1.50 inches, so locally
heavy rainfall will be possible with any of the storms and could
result in some localized flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

As the main upper low moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley
region Saturday a secondary trough rotates through across the area
pushing a weak surface boundary into the Ozarks. This boundary will
then be the focus for additional thunderstorm development.
Question will be how much instability can build back after the
Friday night/ Saturday morning convection. If atmosphere has
enough time to recover will likely see a severe weather threat of
large hail and damaging winds once again.

Flow becomes more zonal later Saturday night and Sunday with weak
surface ridging building in. Low level flow remains southerly so a
moist and unstable airmass will remain in place, but no
discernible triggers for convection so will go with lower
probabilities.

By early next week flow once again becomes more southwesterly as
another trough deepens across the desert southwest, while a
closed low forms over the northern Rockies and pushes eastward
through the northern Plains through mid week. models prog a series
of shortwaves to lift through the southwest flow bringing periods
showers and thunderstorms to the area through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Precipitation from overnight convection has just about exited the
CWA to the east. Still have a frontal boundary over western CWA.
Short term and near term models want to bring convection into the
area from the southwest later this morning. Looking at regional
radar, not really buying into this scenario at the moment. Will
start to bring in vicinity shra/tsra during the afternoon as the
instability increases, but for now will leave the morning
precipitation chances out. Will mostly have VFR conditions today,
with MVFR/IFR potential within any convection that moves across
the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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