Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
152 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Temperatures have finally climbed above the freezing mark after
being in the deep freeze the past few days. With full sunshine and
temperatures above freezing, should begin to melt some of the
snowcover remaining across the area. The Arctic high pressure
system has shifted to the deep south allowing for a south to
southwest surface wind.

The forecast focus in the short term will be with temperatures as
the warming trend will continue.

There may be a fog potential on Friday night with the snowmelt
continuing into Friday.

Focus will be with thunderstorm potential on Sunday as a very
dynamic storm system moves into the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

For tonight, southerly winds will stay up tonight with a tight
pressure gradient across the area. Arctic high will remain south
of the area in the deep south. Lows tonight will drop back below
freezing, but should be in the low to mid 20s for most locations.
Not expecting any fog from the snowmelt for tonight yet.

On Friday, surface gradient will remain fairly tight with the
surface high shifting more east over the far southeast U.S. and
low pressure developing over the high plains in advance of a deep
upper level trough over the western U.S. There will be a good low
level warm advection signal across the area and temperatures
should respond into the upper 40s to low 50s. This should take
care of much of the remaining snowcover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Gulf moisture will also be drawn up into the area Friday night in
additional to the boundary level moisture from the snowmelt and
may lead to fog late Friday night into Saturday morning. At the
very least, a stratus deck should develop over the area. We have
added patchy fog to the grids and forecast.

Upper level wave will move into the Rockies on Saturday with low
level warm air and moisture advection continuing across the CWA.
Some small signal for light rain or drizzle on Saturday with
isentropic lift over the area and low level moisture. It wouldn`t
be a high pop or much in the way of QPF given the fairly shallow
moist layer and pretty dry air aloft.

The strong storm system will move into the plains on Sunday with a
very tight pressure gradient ahead of the low across the area.
Will see some of the area with gusts over 30 mph during the day.
The front will remain west of the area during the daylight hours
on Sunday. Models are showing a narrow band of instability over
the area during the late afternoon and may be enough for some
thunderstorm activity. If some more robust instability can
develop, then there would be some potential of severe storms. Best
instability looks to be to the south of the area. Models showing
best QPF developing over eastern CWA during the evening hours but
quickly pushes out of the area prior to 06z with much drier air
mass moving in from the west.

With the main low well north of the area, wrap around moisture
precipitation associated with the low should remain north of the
area, so we are not expecting any accumulating snow behind the

More seasonal temperatures are expected for the first half of next


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this afternoon
through Friday morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will
develop over much of the area this afternoon and again Friday
morning. Low level winds shear may also develop and be a concern
across the area this evening and tonight.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
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