Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 260511

1211 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.


MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ073-097-101.



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