Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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150
FXUS63 KSGF 271758
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Nearly stacked low pressure system was located over southeastern
Nebraska at midday with an attendant cold front trailing south
into eastern Kansas. There was also a pre-frontal trough
progressing across southwestern Missouri which was veering
surface winds to the southwest.

Near term model runs indicate the development of isolated convection
mainly east of highway 65 as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours as the cold front pushes east. Additional storm
development may occur across central Missouri in closer proximity
to the upper low. Instability will be present but marginal for
strong convective development. However favorable deep layer shear
and steep mid level lapse rates will be supportive of hail
production if storms materialize.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Line of convection continues to push east across the CWA early
this morning. Still getting a few wind reports and a few mesovorts
popping up along the line segments. Will maintain the severe risk
over the eastern Ozarks this morning with this linear convection.

Surface low pressure was still to the west over north central KS
early this morning, with the dry line still over central/eastern
Kansas.

Main focus will be with the ongoing convection and as to whether
the storms will refire later today over our area ahead of
boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Ongoing line of convection will likely continue into the eastern
Ozarks through sunrise with showers and thunderstorms continuing
behind the main line into the mid morning hours. The initial line
of convection should continue to weaken as it pushes east, but
can`t rule out some isolated severe wind gusts.  Drier air will
move into the area later today as shortwave energy pushes through.
Main instability will be over eastern Ozarks ahead of this drier
air surge during the afternoon and that area will have the best
potential for future later development. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main potential for any storms that can refire
later today.

By this evening, this activity will have pushed off to the east of
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday both
at the surface and aloft and should bring a brief reprieve from
the convection. Southwest flow will begin to develop over the area
Thursday night ahead of a deep trough. Energy from this upper low
will begin to track into the area on Friday into the weekend which
will bring unsettled weather an thunderstorm chances into the area
through the weekend. There could be a few strong to severe storms
across the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Pilots can expect variable ceilings this afternoon as a cold
front pushes eastward across the region. Ceilings will fall into
MVFR category at times. A few storms may develop mainly to the
east of the terminal sites. Clearing is expected tonight into
Thursday with a wind shift to the west.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster



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