Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 300749
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persisted over the Ozarks
Region into the early morning hours. This activity was occuring in
response to the presence of an upper level weakness.
Additional thunderstorms are expected today as an upper level
shear axis remains in place across southern Missouri. As
temperatures warm into the 80s by mid day, most unstable capes
will exceed 2,000 j/kg. With the lack of deep shear, we don`t
think there is much risk for severe storms.
The shear axis doesn`t move much into tonight. Therefore there
should be a slight chance for some rain along or near this
feature. Most locations will remain dry today and tonight.
Overnight lows tonight will cool into the middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Next week is looking warmer and drier than previously thought.
While there are indications of an upper level weakness caught
underneath a mean ridge, this feature could be too weak to focus
much rain into the Ozarks. Therefore we are forecasting some very
conservative rain chances for several days.
Temperatures will warm as humidity increases this week with highs
in the upper 80s on an afternoon basis. Look for dew points to
persist in the middle to upper 60s. Therefore heat indices may try
to push the middle 90s on some of these afternoons.
Neither the GFS or the ECMWF indicate any signficant weather
through the next several days.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
A weak upper level disturbance will keep the threat for scattered
showers and thunderstorms going across southern Missouri into
Sunday. The best chance for storms through dawn will be around
Branson where a TEMPO group was inserted.
Meanwhile, confidence in MVFR fog has increased for the Joplin
area. We have therefore gone with prevailing MVFR (versus the
TEMPO group from earlier). There is still potential for IFR fog
late tonight if enough clearing can take place.
More thunderstorms will then be possible in the heating of the
day Sunday afternoon. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around any storms.
Surface winds will remain light through Sunday evening out of the
southeast to south.