Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 010814

314 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday Night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Areas of fog have developed across portions of extreme southeastern
Kansas and southern Missouri early this morning. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than a mile at times and will vary greatly over
short distances. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise this

The region remains in a northwest flow upper level pattern and
a weak upper level disturbance is currently pushing south into
northern Missouri early this morning. This disturbance will
continue to track southeast today and will spark a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly along and east of the Highway 65
corridor. Severe weather is not expected with this activity as
instability will not be overly strong. A few of the stronger
storms though will be capable of wind gusts up to 40 mph across
the eastern Ozarks this afternoon where better mid level moisture
and better theta-E differences will be present. This activity will
be hit and miss in nature, will not affect everyone, and will
dissipate fairly quickly this evening.

The area being in northwest flow and the disturbance reinforcing
the cooler air mass over the area will result in another day of
below normal temperatures as highs warm into the lower to middle
80s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Below normal conditions will continue into Saturday as highs top
out in the middle 80s and lows drop into the lower to middle 60s
Saturday night. Another weak disturbance will track through the
northwest flow aloft and through the region Saturday afternoon and
evening. At this time have left out any chances of showers and
thunderstorms with this feature as mid level moisture will be
limited and forcing will be limited and is not expected to be able
to over come the dry air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at |315 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A warming trend will occur on Sunday into early next week as an upper
level ridge builds east into the Plains. Temperatures will return
to near normal early next week with highs in the upper 80s to
the lower 90s.

An upper level shortwave trough will push southeast across the northern
Plains during the middle of next week and will flatten the upper
level ridge. The trough could kick off some scattered thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A clear or clearing sky and left over
low level moisture over far southern MO is expected to lead to fog
development over the next few hours. Conditional climate for stations
close to the MO/AR border show the best chances at KBBG, but all
locations should have a decent chance. The fog should burn off
fairly quickly after 12z with vfr conditions expected.




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