Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220537
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1137 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A deep closed upper low will track from the Rockies into the
central Plains this evening while a surface low pressure system
tracks from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri. A trailing
surface trough then cold front will push across the Ozarks region
this evening. Strong synoptic lift and moisture advection along
with at least ample instability will ignite numerous showers and
thunderstorms from late afternoon into tonight.

While instability will be rather modest the shear profiles will be
favorable to support intense updrafts and possibly supercells.
Shear vectors will also support surging line segments and bowing
structures. This all adds up to a risk of severe storms with the
potential of damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes.
While a low risk the primary area of concern for tornadoes would
be across far southern Missouri.

The showers and storms will end from the west late this evening
into the overnight hours. Expect some clearing overnight as a dry
slot wraps around the upper low.

The true cold front will sweep across the area early Monday as the
upper low transitions eastward. This will bring steady or falling
temperatures and increased cloud cover. Also expect showers mainly
across central Missouri. Some potential that some snow will mix
with the rain before ending.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Colder temperatures settle back into the region through mid week
before upper level ridging and southerly winds return by late
week.

The next upper trough and associated front will move into the
region heading into later Friday and this weekend. This will
bring another good chance for precipitation. Colder weather will
again follow this system this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm system moving through the Ozarks this evening will make
steady progression through 09z and exit east of the region. Storms
were east of Joplin but will continue for an hour or two more for
Springfield and Branson. This will keep MVFR ceilings and
visibilities through 07z. As the storms shift east, Ceilings will
improve to VFR through sunrise across the area.

Cloud cover wrapping around the upper level low that is driving
the current storms will bring a return of MVFR ceilings along
with some rain showers though a few flakes of snow may mix in as
surface temperatures fall to the freezing mark in the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Hatch



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