Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 061149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

A large area of lift/upglide is producing mid level cloud and
even a high based sprinkle/shower over west central MO/eastern KS.
The shortwave associated with this activity is expected shift east
today while weakening as ridging aloft increases and shifts east
over the Plains. Expect clouds to linger and shift east today,
but eventually the increased high pressure aloft will win out as
it approaches from the west tonight.

Fog development is a concern early today where the sky can remain
clear over the eastern cwfa. Some fog may also be possible late
tonight/Wed morning, again where the sky is clear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

The main concern during this period will be tstm chances Thursday

Building heights/high pressure axis aloft will shift over the
area late Wednesday before weakening/flattening out Thursday with
the approach of shortwave and associated sfc cold front. Thursday
looks to be the warmest day of the week as sw sfc winds develop
ahead of the approaching trough. Highs in the 80s will be common.

Showers/thunderstorms are expected with the frontal passage
Thursday night. MUCAPE/instability of around 1000 J/kg will be
present early/mid evening over the nw cwfa with some decent
lapse rates, but overall moisture will be less than impressive.
Still we will have a good chance for some storm activity Thu night
as the front moves through. Some showers may also linger into
early Friday over the eastern cwfa depending on fropa timing.
Overall rain amounts will not be particularly impressive, a
general quarter of inch or so.

High pressure will build in behind the front with a brief cool
down, but temperatures will bounce right back over the weekend as
faster flow aloft brings in a shortwave ridge and south sfc winds
develop once again. Another trough will approach or move into the
region Monday, but with poor moisture return ahead of the front,
rain chances look to be minimal at this point.

The main messages: 1) While shower/tstm chances will be fairly
high Thursday night with a cold front, rain amounts will be fairly
low. 2) No big frosts or freezes are expected during this time,
but a cool down is expected behind the front. Chilly temperatures
are expected to be in the 40s by daybreak Saturday with warming
trend thereafter. 3) Dry weather is expected over the weekend into
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0645 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

Periods of patchy fog will be possible this morning where clouds
break and or clear. Otherwise VFR cloud cover will occur with
light to calm winds across the region. Broken cloud cover at
around 4kft will be possible this afternoon with some improvement
this evening. Light MVFR fog will then be possible again Wednesday
morning along with low broken to overcast MVFR cloud cover.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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