Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 260909
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Saturday night)
Southerly breezes persisted overnight as low pressure expanded
across the Plains. Warmer temperatures resulted with lows only
falling into the 40s. Temperatures today should be similar to
yesterday with highs in the 50s. We could experience some high 50s
in areas out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.
These south winds were also bringing an increase in moisture,
which will set the stage for some light rainfall starting late this
afternoon out near the Kansas and Missouri border.
For locations along the I-44 corridor, the better chances for
light rain will occur overnight tonight, with light rain tapering
from west to east Saturday morning.
For areas of south central Missouri, this rain could linger
through Saturday and into Saturday night, as upper level flow
continues from the southwest the entire weekend.
Rainfall amounts will range from 0.15 to 0.40, with the better
amounts occurring over south central Missouri.
A cold front will shift through southern Missouri Saturday,
bringing a Canadian airmass with it.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected next work week.
Upper flow will be fast and zonal, as northerly trajectories
continue at the surface.
Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico should remain suppressed near coastal
areas under this pattern, giving confidence to an extended period
of dry weather.
Both the GFS and ECWMF indicate the approach of a vigorous storm
system late in the week toward next Friday. Given the storm
track from a perfect prog stand point, the Ozarks would receive
more rain than anything. Chances for severe storms would occur in
the deep south, as heavy snow would be favored over the corn belt.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014
Low level wind shear conditions will continue into early Friday
morning along with brisk southerly winds. Confidence continues to
be high that an MVFR deck of clouds will overspread southern
Missouri Friday morning. This deck will then lower Friday evening
with IFR becoming increasingly likely.