Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 302313
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

...Update to the Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

A Canadian frontal system had shifted across southern Missouri
this morning, bringing cooler temperatures, cloud cover, and
northwest winds.

Areas of drizzle had also developed, but much of this drizzle was
light in nature. Isolated to scattered showers developed across
the eastern Ozarks, and this activity is expected to wane over the
next several hours.

For tonight, expect the potential for some patchy fog development
as the cooler air nudges dew points closely. We should also
experience a weakening trend in wind speeds with overnight lows
falling into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Cool and cloudy conditions will continue into Sunday while
northeast breezes continue. Temperatures may struggle to warm out
of the upper 60s in many locations. We are not expecting rain on
Sunday, for the exception of far south central Missouri. The GFS
is suggesting the development of a cluster or rain to develop in
this area due to an upper trough axis moving through. Therefore,
will hold on to some precip chances out toward Alton, West Plains,
and Eminence.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper flow becomes blocked by a
developing cut off low over the deep south. The primary belt of
westerlies shifts across the northern Plains, and the Ozarks will
be positioned underneath a weather pattern ideal for outdoor
activities.

Dry conditions are expected with afternoon highs warming into the
70s and 80s on an afternoon basis through Friday.

By the upcoming weekend, medium range models are showing the first
glimpses of a summertime high developing over Mexico. This brings
westerly flow back into the Ozarks, along with deep moisture from
the Gulf. This will likely increase the chances for showers and
thunderstorms with any passing shortwaves migrating over the top
of the summer high.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: An area of surface low pressure
has shifted east of the area. On the back side of the low, a low
level cloud deck is over spreading the area. MVFR ceilings will
continue to lower into the IFR then LIFR range this evening and
tonight. The Visibility will also lower some tonight as patchy fog
develops.

Winds will remain out of the northwest to north through out the
TAF period. Ceilings will slowly increase Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise






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