Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 081135
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
After a brief round of snow last night, the lower troposphere had
a difficult time saturating. Nearly all models were suggesting
freezing drizzle by now, however, surface dew point depressions at
9z were still around 10 degrees.
We think saturation will eventually occur in some spots today.
Therefore we kept the freezing drizzle in the forecast, but kept
POPS in check.
A dry slot was moving in from the southwest, as seen on water
vapor. This feature will completely eliminate cloud ice.
Therefore, the main precipitation type will be freezing drizzle.
Many areas today will remain dry.
A cold front will shift across the region later tonight. This will
bring in drier and cooler air. Overnight lows should fall back
into the teens.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We could experience some very minor snow accumulations Monday
night as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. Moisture
will be limited, therefore, only a dusting to maybe an inch is
expected. This snow will quickly shift east of the region,
allowing for dry conditions on Tuesday.
The overall upper level pattern will evolve back into a split flow
regime by mid week. The northern stream will influence the Ozarks
weather more than the southern stream, bringing chilly and dry
conditions through much of the week.
Temperatures in the 20s and 30s will be common, meanwhile,
overnight lows in the teens are expected on a nightly basis.
By Saturday morning, there are signals that would suggest light
snow possibilities as a weak disturbance approaches from the west.
At this time we`ll carry a mention of this in the forecast and
Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Otherwise it doesn`t appear as though anything too significant is
in the offing over the next 7 days. Have a great Sunday.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Light snow and possibly some freezing
drizzle and light fog is finally overspreading the region after
finally saturating the sub cloud layer. mvfr/ifr cat conditions will
occur where saturation continues although it looks like the best
chance for lift/precip will be through 16z-18z. Another sfc
trough/front will pass through the region late in the taf period
with lowering ceilings, likely low end mvfr or ifr.