Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A few mid level clouds drifting across the area early this
morning, but otherwise a mostly clear night with a fairly dry
atmosphere still across the region. Temperatures were in the low
to mid 50s early this morning with dew points in the mid to upper

The focus with this forecast package will be with some gusty winds
on Friday, possible warm advection showers Friday night and strong
to potential severe thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

For today, more warm October weather is in store for the area.
Upper level ridging will be across the area today with upper level
energy and trough to our west and east. Large low level ridge will
be across the southeast U.S. today with a southerly flow over our
CWA. We are expecting afternoon temperatures to reach the mid 70s
to near 80 degrees today, which is well above normal for this time
of year. Upper ridge will shift east of the area tonight with low
pressure developing in the Rockies. Low level flow will begin to
increase with low level jet developing from the central plains
into the upper Mississippi valley. Dry atmospheric conditions will
persist over the area with PW values remaining below 0.50 in.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Breezy conditions are expected on Friday ahead of the next
developing storm system out in the Rockies. Friday should be
another warm day across the area with temperatures back in the mid
to upper 70s. We could see some warm advection showers/isolated
thunder over the area Friday night in advance of the main storm

Most of Saturday will remain dry with frontal boundary still off
to the west and instability percolating along and east of the
boundary. While afternoon CAPES will increase, especially across
the western CWA, there will be a thermal cap in place until later
in the afternoon in the far western CWA. Most of the convection we
are looking at in the SGF CWA will be after thunderstorms become
organized along/ahead of front from mid to late evening and
overnight. The western portion of the CWA will have the potential
for some damaging wind gusts, but severity will likely diminish as
the convection shifts east across the area. The front should push
east of the area Sunday morning, with mainly showers remaining in
the eastern CWA Sunday afternoon.

Main upper low and trough will shift east of the region Sunday
night with showers ending over the east Sunday evening.

Models are struggling after Sunday night in handling of northern
trough pushing into the area and closing off a low over the
central U.S. GFS want to keep things dry, while new ECMWF keeps
precipitation over the area through Monday night as the two system
merge near the area. For now, am keeping things mostly dry, but
will have to monitor trends on where these two systems merge and
timing/location of where the northern stream system closes off.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected today with high pressure off to our
southeast. A steady south wind at 8 to 10 kts is expected during
the day today.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.