Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 261822 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast updated to account for latest temperature and PoP trends.
Quick moving band of snow has exited to the east bringing, as
expected, a dusting of snow to locations along and east of a line
from Nevada to Springfield to Branson. The more consistent
accumulations were across central Missouri and portions of the
eastern Ozarks, where around a half inch to perhaps one inch of
snow was observed. Sunshine and warming to above freezing will
likely result in most, if not all of this snow melting this
afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon, we will continue to deal with this
clipper system as it moves into the center of the nation. The
surface low track will move from north central Missouri into the
Ohio River Valley region. Additional light rain showers/sprinkles
will develop across the eastern half of the outlook area this
afternoon, mixed with a few snow showers across portions of
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks where temperatures remain
closer to the mid 30s. This activity will shift east this evening
with a few sprinkles/flurries lingering across the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A small, fast moving, but vigorous shortwave is digging southeast
into eastern Neb/western IA. Strongly diffluent flow aloft with
the exit region of jet streak has spread southeast into ne KS and
nw MO and radar reflectivity returns have reached as far southeast
as the KC metro. However, with dry air in place at lower levels,
some of this precip along the leading edge is not reaching the
ground. Farther to the nw, obs do eventually see a mix of rain and
snow.

We should see the shortwave continue to dig to the southeast into
the forecast area by midday/18z with the strongest lift moving
quickly across the region this morning, especially over the
northeast half to three quarters of the cwfa. Low level warm
advection and clouds have allowed temperatures to remain
relatively mild over the western cwfa tonight and expect that
trend to continue from west to east over the next few hours.
Basically lift/evaporative cooling from precip aloft will fight
warm advection/limited diurnal heating in terms of low level
temperature profiles this morning. In general went with a high res
model blend in terms of timing/temperatures/thermal profiles. In
short, we should see a mix of rain and snow (maybe a little sleet
at onset), similar to what we are seeing upstream. Have edged the
accumulating snow a little farther southwest versus previous
forecasts with the highest amounts over the northeast cwfa/Lake of
the Ozarks region (0.5-0.7 inches) where the snow could very
briefly be more intense. The short residence time of the strong
lift in any one area along with relatively warm sfc temperatures
and limited solar thermal radiation will limit snow amounts. Some
slick spots on roadways will be possible for a brief time where
more intense snow can fall early this morning. Given the small
scale of the system, there will still be some maneuvering of the
forecast and forecast message/impacts based on observed trends.

Blustery winds veering to the west and northwest can also be
expected today with some gusts of 30-35 mph possible over the
western cwfa toward midday behind the trailing sfc front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

No big changes to the forecast for Thanksgiving and into the
weekend. A sfc ridge of Canadian high pressure nosing south into
the central U.S. will shift west-east through MO on Thursday. A
quick warm up will develop Friday as a flat upper ridge moves east
into the the central CONUS. Warm temperatures will continue over
the upcoming weekend.

A split upper level flow develops late in the week, and a
shortwave in the northern stream will allow a cold front to move
into the area late Sunday and Sunday night. Not looking at
brutally cold air which will remain to the north, but highs will
be colder by Monday (30s and 40s). Not entirely sold on a warming
trend for Tuesday, but will go with a model blend. Quite a bit of
divergence in guidance patterns start to emerge early next week,
so hard to argue with the fcst blend/mean at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Interesting morning as a quick shot of snow was followed
immediately by sunshine and then a resurgence of stratus. Snow is
no longer a concern for the TAF locations as temperatures are well
into the 40s, though MVFR ceilings and sporadic light showers or
sprinkles will affect SGF this afternoon and perhaps BBG late this
afternoon. Stratus will linger into the evening, shift off to the
east overnight. VFR conditions are expected on Thursday. Northwest
winds will be gusty into this evening, slackening quickly
overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan







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