Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 232028
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

...Beautiful Weather This Weekend...Increasing Confidence for
Strong to Severe Storms Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Very pleasant weather was being observed across the entire area
this afternoon with sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures have
warmed up into the middle and upper 70s area wide. Another nice
evening is on the way followed by another nice day on Sunday with
highs around 80. It will be breezy as a storm system develops
across the High Plains region into the northern Plains. A strong
pressure gradient will cause southerly winds possibly gusting up
to 30 mph at times over the western half of the area.

Strong to severe convection will develop just our northwest across
Kansas by tomorrow evening along a pseudo front and dry line.
This convection will try to move eastward Sunday night but run out
of energy and atmospheric support. Will continue to mention the
possibility of a strong storm or two possibly reaching portions
of southeast Kansas and extreme western Missouri very late Sunday
night. Otherwise the convection will decrease to spotty showers
and isolated thunder across the area by Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Monday will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy and more humid. The
front that ran out of energy and support Sunday night will stall
out across the area or just northwest of the area on Monday. With
this boundary in the general area with weak forcing and some weak
instability to work with...will continue a chance of a few
scattered showers and isolated thunder Monday through early on
Tuesday. This stalling out of the boundary will be key to allowing
low level and mid level moisture to continue to increase across
the region.

The main concern and attention will be the stronger storm system
developing on Tuesday and Wednesday. A good agreement with the
forecast models show a strong negatively tilted trough moving out
of the Rocky Mountains to the Central Plains on Tuesday afternoon.
Surface dewpoints will climb into the middle 60s across the region
with forecast cape somewhere from 3000 to 4000 J/KG. Bulk shear
magnitudes will be around 35 knots Tuesday evening and slow
increasing Tuesday night into Wednesday. There may be initially a
strong cap Tuesday afternoon. Still a few questions on timing of
when convection will develop or move into the area Tuesday evening
and Tuesday night. But confidence is slowly increasing that the
region will see severe weather late Tuesday through Wednesday.

The ECMWF is a little further southeast of the position than the
GFS with the upper level system and storm system. All models show
a possible outbreak of severe weather developing to our west late
Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This convection will begin to
move into our southeast Kansas counties and extreme western
Missouri very late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. All
modes of severe weather appear possible west of the Highway 65
corridor with large hail...damaging winds...and a few tornadoes
possible.

The convection may be ongoing or decreasing by early Wednesday
morning. The question remains if the atmosphere will be able to
destabilize again by midday or Wednesday afternoon. The models
have slowed down the progression of the dryline or front which now
may hang out across western Missouri on Wednesday. The better
potential for severe weather on Wednesday will remain along and
east of Highway 65 Wednesday afternoon with all modes of severe
weather possible again. Areawide total forecast rainfall will
average about an inch to up to an inch and half possible.

The front finally moves through late Wednesday night and moves
out the showers and storms to the east. The front stalls out to
our south on Thursday with dry weather expected across the area.
The boundary moves northward as a warm front on Friday and
Saturday bringing another round of showers and storms to the
region late in the week. The weather pattern looks active and
storm heading into next weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high
pressure continues to drift eastward and an upper level ridge
moves across the area. Main forecast concern is gusty winds
beginning after sunrise on Sunday as the next approaching system
begins to tighten up the surface pressure gradient. Winds should
develop gusts after 13z at KSGF/KJLN but believe that it will be
later in the afternoon...after the end of the forecast
period...for KBBG.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gaede



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