Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 091148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
548 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0230 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

A deep northwesterly flow within a highly amplified pattern will
maintain its influence over the region today. There will be
lingering clouds and flurries from central Missouri into the
eastern Ozarks this morning beneath the mid level shear axis on
the backside of the deep eastern upper level trough. Expect
clearing or at least partial clearing at most locations by this

Despite some clearing temperatures will remain cold and below
normal for early February. Much of the Missouri Ozarks will remain
below freezing today while highs climb into the 30s near the
Kansas and Oklahoma borders. With the surface ridge axis extending
across the region tonight lows will fall into the teens with some
single digits possible across the eastern Ozarks.

The gusty northwesterly winds and dry airmass will lead to limited
to elevated fire weather conditions today. Not expecting to reach
critical red flag conditions but grass fires could easily get out
of control.

Forecast certainty is high through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0230 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

The region will remain under a northwesterly flow pattern of
varying amplitude the remainder of the week into the weekend.

A upper level jet streak will slide southeast from the northern
Plains to the mid Mississippi valley Wednesday while weak surface
cyclogenesis occurs over the central Plains. In response a
tightening northwest to southeast temperature gradient along with
an axis of increasing 850-700 MB frontgenesis will evolve. Models
prog a band of light snow to set up from the upper Midwest into
the western Ohio River valley within this axis of lift associated
with the jet streak and low to mid level frontogenesis. At this
time it appears this snowfall impact areas east of forecast area
although cannot rule some flurries across the eastern Missouri
Ozarks Wednesday.

A reinforcing surface high will build southward Thursday with
another more substantial Canadian high pressure system build south
on Saturday. This maintain the below normal temperatures.

A pronounced shortwave trough will slide southeastward from the
northern Rockies into the Plains on Sunday while a warm air
advection pattern develops over the region. While moisture looks
to be somewhat limited it appears to ample for at least chance of
mixed precipitation Sunday. Some light snow accumulation could
transpire but any accumulation looks to be light at this time.

The northwesterly flow pattern will persist into early next before
models suggest a more zonal upper pattern later next week.

Overall forecast certainty is high although  type and amounts on
Sunday remain uncertain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0531 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals today and
tonight. Gusty northwesterly surface winds will persist today
with frequent gusts over 20 kts. Surface winds will subside
tonight as surface high pressure builds into the region.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Foster
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