Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 201659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

...Update to Aviation for 18Z TAFs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Post frontal showers and storms have moved generally east of the
highway 65 corridor early this morning. Much of this activity
should continue to push east and southeast through the morning.

The story through the short term will be cloud cover and cold air
advection. Temperatures today aren`t expected to rise much above
the 60 degree mark as cloud cover will continue to hang tough
across the region.

Some drizzle or light shower activity can`t be ruled out later
this morning and into the afternoon, especially near the Highway
54 corridor as a vort lobe from the passing short wave moves
overhead. Amounts will be light from a trace to a hundredth or

Finally, as the wave begins to push east overnight allowing for
clouds to decrease. Winds will also begin to subside as a surface
high pressure moves into the area. A chilly night is expected
with low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Dry northwest flow aloft is expected through the remainder of the
week. The surface high will begin to push east of our area by
Saturday, which will initiate a southerly flow. Temperatures will
gradually warm from the lower 70s on Saturday to the middle 70s by
Monday as an upper level ridge builds over the area.

Our next weather system will be due into the region sometime
during the middle of next week, however, confidence is lacking
due to differences in the globals regarding timing and strength
of this feature.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at TAF
sites this afternoon through Friday morning.

The low level stratus deck currently over the KBBG site is
expected to scattered out by the start of the TAF period then
lift early this afternoon. Clouds will increase from the north
this afternoon, but will remain in the VFR range.

Northerly winds will be gusty this afternoon as a colder air mass
spreads into the region. Skies will clear out by this evening and
winds will weaken overnight.




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