Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Southerly winds will continue to bring a warm and moist airmass
into the region through this evening and into Saturday. A few
clouds will move across the region in response to the heating and
increasing moisture.

Overnight temperatures will only fall into the 60s to near 70 for
many locations. The breezy southerly winds will remain as upper
level southwesterly flow continues and a broad upper level trough
moves into the plains through the day Saturday.

Temperatures on Saturday will climb to near record highs for some
locations as strong warm air and moisture advection continues
through the day in advance of the front.

Surface low pressure will move across the plains into Iowa as a
cold front is pushed across the plains and towards the Ozarks.
Showers and storms may begin to impact the region as early as
Saturday afternoon/evening for areas from Fort Scott to Warsaw.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The front itself is expected to push through the region Late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. There remains the
potential for strong to severe storms with the main concern being
damaging straight line winds. Current indication are for a line of
storms to develop along or just post frontal and push through the
area, exiting southeast of the Ozarks by midday Sunday.

Colder, more seasonable temperatures will filter in behind the
front with Sundays highs only around 60 degrees. Temperatures
through the rest of the week will see a very slow warming trend
with afternoon highs by the end of the week in the lower to
middle 70s.

Sprawling surface high pressure and northwesterly upper level
flow will bring a dry weather patter to the region for all of next
week and likely through next weekend as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A surface cold front is currently situated from northeastern
Missouri into southcentral Kansas. The nocturnal jet ahead of this
front will create some LLWS conditions at KSGF/KJLN during the
overnight hours. Will also see an increase in lower to middle
layer clouds across the northern portions of the area overnight.

As the front begins to make its way towards the area on
Saturday...winds will become breezy beginning mid morning through
the afternoon with some gusts around 20 kts possible. Convection
near of the front will approach the northwestern portions of the
area late Saturday afternoon and should begin affecting the
KSGF/KJLN terminal sites after 00z. Winds will begin to veer as
well as the front transits the terminal area just beyond the end
of the forecast period.




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