Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141949 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249  PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Another pleasant fall-like day underway across the area. Patch of
mid level cloud cover continues to dissipate/shift northeast into
central Missouri. This has held back temperatures a bit across
central Missouri (upper 60s), with the rest of the area in the
70s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight with mid/high level clouds on
the increase. Will be watching two systems moving into the central
portion of the CONUS. One is a weak wave moving east/northeast out
of Texas into Oklahoma, the other much stronger moving across the
Upper Midwest. The stronger wave to our north will produce an area
of showers and storms that will approach northern portions of our
area toward daybreak Monday. In addition, the weaker wave to our
southwest will induce weak isentropic upglide which may produce a
few showers across far western/southwestern portions of the area
toward daybreak.

Each of the aforementioned waves will continue to move east on
Monday. 12z suite of model output indicates the majority of the
lift associated with this system will be in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. As the brunt of the upper wave shifts into the
Great Lakes region, mid and upper level support will weaken
considerably. A cold front associated with the northern wave will
move into the area. Modest heating will produce modest instability
across the area, and scattered showers and storms should develop
along the boundary as it moves slowly to the south with this. As a
result, it`s possible not everyone will see rain with this system.

The front will slowly sag south Monday night and clear the area by
Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will remain possible across
southern Missouri into Tuesday morning, with clearing expected
Tuesday afternoon. This front will stall just to our south and
west, transitioning into a warm front and become a focus for
additional showers and a few storms heading into Wednesday,
especially across the western half of the area.

Temperatures Monday will be seasonably mild, but return back to
well below average levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A stalled front will linger Wednesday night and possibly early
Thursday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
front will wash out Thursday and upper level ridging will build
across the central portions of the country. Southerly winds will
return for the end of the week along with warmer weather.
Temperatures will be about seasonable if not slightly above
average. The weather will be dry for the end of the week with the
upper level ridge of high pressure.

The ridge will break down next weekend and allow another front to
move into the area. The models suggest this front will slow down
or even stall out near the around by Sunday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Will mention a chance for rain late
Saturday through Sunday but not confident yet on timing or
coverage 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Primary forecast challenge will be shower/storm chances as we head
into the daylight hours of Monday morning. Currently, patch of mid
level clouds is beginning to thin/move northeast out of the
JLN/SGF aerodromes. Will continue to see a variety of mid/high
level clouds increasing across the region through tonight. VFR
conditions are expected with winds generally out of the southeast.
Winds will shift to the south/southwest heading into Monday
morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Ingredients
for shower/storm development will come together slowly, and as a
result have gone with a PROB30 at all sites for any initial
activity ahead of the front. Better chances for rain exist just
beyond the TAF cycle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






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