Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 140921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
321 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The southern edge of a cloud deck over the Midwest is shifting
south into our area. Looks like we will see a fair amount of
clouds through tonight with chilly temperatures. Winds will be
fairly light from the northwest, becoming light and variable
tonight as a weak pressure gradient in a nondescript sfc pattern
moves overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The main highlights for this period will be fire weather during
the day Saturday and then finally some modest rainfall late Sat
night into Sunday.

Fri: A sfc ridge will move through the area Fri with quiet
weather. Winds will eventually back to the west and southwest by
evening. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer, fairly
close to or maybe just above normal daytime highs.

Fri night-Sat: Low pressure will move into the Midwest and
Plains. The pressure gradient tightens up once again with
temperatures on the upswing with gusty s-sw winds. Could easily
see some low 60s for highs. Moisture return will lag during the
day with some fire wx concerns (brief fire wx discussion is below).

Sat night-Sunday: A positively tilted upper level trough over the
Rockies will shift east over the weekend. A separate shortwave in
a split flow will move from northern Mexico into the Arklatex
region by 12z Sunday then into the OH Vly Sun night. The northern
portion of the precip shield associated with this southern stream
system is expected to bring some light precip amounts to most of
the area, with the possible exception of our far western (se KS)
counties. The positively tilted northern stream shortwave will
move through Sunday while weakening. All-in-all the best chances
for rain will be late Sat night/early Sunday with "highest"
amounts over the eastern and southeastern cwfa.

Mon-Wed: High pressure will build into the area from the west
becoming centered over the area Tue night and shifting off to the
east Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR flight conditions will continue through the TAF period. Short
term models have poor handle on cloud deck over central and
northern Missouri as they are further south than the models show.
Will have to watch how this evolves overnight. Ceilings within
this band is in the 035K-045K range. Do expect clouds to
eventually get down and impact the taf sites, but not until after
15Z, then should still be VFR.


Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Fire weather will be concern Saturday as warm temperatures, low
humidity and increased winds occur once again. Dry ground fuels,
both grassland/brush and woodland, from the lack of recent
rainfall will be a continued concern. The good news is the rain
chances, albeit minor, on Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will
also be considerably lighter on Sunday. Will mention the fire
concerns in the hazardous weather outlook (hwo) and situation




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