Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 232043
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

...Turning Windy and Colder Tonight and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A surface low pressure was currently near Tulsa and slowly
deepening. A strong cold front was currently moving southeast
stretching from near Kansas City to Ponca. This front will move
quickly through the area this evening. The surface low pressure
will move northeastward across the Missouri Ozarks tonight.

Additional showers will be likely tonight and maybe a rumble of
thunder this evening with some elevated instability. No severe
weather is expected. Additional rainfall for tonight will be
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible with the higher
amounts near central Missouri.

Models still indicate that maybe just enough cold air in the mid
levels may allow some of the rain showers to mix with or briefly
change over to wet snow. Surface temperatures will be above
freezing in the middle to upper 30s and ground temperatures are warm in
the 40s. The best potential to see a little rain/snow mix will be
along and north of I-44 late tonight before the precip exits the
area. The could be a brief light dusting of wet snow on grassy
areas along and north of Highway 54 across central Missouri. But
again...no impacts are expected from the wet snow.

Winds will be very gusty tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
sustained 20 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 40 mph likely tonight
and tomorrow. This will be just shy of wind advisory criteria but
something to keep an eye on. Much colder weather returns for
Monday with clouds slowly trying to clear out and highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A sharp trough across the Great Lakes Region into the south
central portion of the U.S. will keep the weather pattern below
average for the early part of this week. There will be a gradual
moderation of temperatures by the middle of the week. Another
shortwave moves across the Midwest on Wednesday and bring another
dry cold front and reinforce the cool and dry weather pattern.
Travelers will have fair weather for traveling on Wednesday.
Thanksgiving will be sunny and seasonable cool. The upper level
pattern flattens by the end of the week and weekend. This will
bring a moderation of temperatures with temperatures closer to
seasonable averages and no precip in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Yet another complex and challenging forecast for area aerodromes.
Brunt of rainfall has shifted east of the aerodromes this morning
and for much of the afternoon, IFR stratus will lift to MVFR with
patchy drizzle around. Later this afternoon, the cold front to our
northwest will move into the region and increase rain chances from
northwest to southeast across the area. Still cannot rule out a
rumble or two of thunder from 21z to 03z along the front. Cold
front will arrive this evening at all TAF sites and winds will
abruptly shift to the west/northwest. Wind speeds and gusts will
be strong this evening and this will be something to monitor
closely. Rain will exit to the northeast after midnight. There
remains a brief window of opportunity for rain to mix with or
change over to snow. With temperatures in the mid 30s, impacts are
not expected. Stratus (IFR to low end MVFR) will linger into
Monday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan






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