Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 252015
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Upper level ridge over the Southern Plains is the dominant weather
maker during this forecast period.  This ridge is keeping a very
warm and humid air mass over the region.  In addition...short waves
transiting the northern periphery of this ridge are setting off
convection...primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

With the ridge expected to remain in place through the
weekend...expect afternoon high temperatures to range from the low
to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100 to 107 degrees.  Will
thus extend the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for
Sunday.

Convection remains a little tricky.  Instability is definitely present
as numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection.  Believe
convection will once again fire late this afternoon and last into
the evening hours.  Like yesterday...any convection that does fire
has the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Warm and humid conditions should remain over the area through early
next week as the upper level ridge remains firmly ensconced over the
Southern Plains.  As the ridge amplifies...the convective chances
will decrease as the storm track is pushed northward.

By Wednesday...an upper level wave moving across the Northern Plains
will begin to deamplify the ridge and push a surface cold front
southward toward the region.  While precipitation chances will
increase as the front approaches...do not expect more than slight
chance PoPs at this time.

As the upper level wave transits the Great Lakes on Friday...it will
cause the upper ridge to amplify and retrograde to the west taking
up a position over the Great Basin by the end of the forecast
period. As this happens...a more northwesterly flow develops which
will bring a slightly cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Highs on Thursday through the end of the forecast period should be
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

Conditions should generally remain VFR through the next 24 hours.
Some isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
this afternoon and early evening, but right now, it appears that
convective coverage may be too sparse to include in the TAFs at
this time. However, should a thunderstorm affect a terminal later
this afternoon, brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds can be
expected.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Boxell





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