Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 151131
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014
The vertically stacked low pressure system was currently located
just north of Wichita this morning and moving towards the
northeast. Radar shows the majority of the showers and isolated
thunder was located over the eastern Missouri Ozarks with areas
west of Highway 65 mostly dry slotted. The actual cold front was
still located back near the I-35 corridor and will be moving
through early midday to early afternoon.
Most of the rain will be east of our CWA by sunrise this morning.
There may be some breaks in the clouds before the wrap around
clouds on the back side of the exiting low pressure system move
back in. A few spotty showers may also be possible on the back
side of the low mainly across central Missouri later today.
Temperatures are going to hold mostly steady this morning in the
lower to middle 50s or could rise a few degrees later this morning.
Once the cold front moves through by early afternoon and the wrap
around clouds move back in...temperature will slowly fall back
into the 40s this afternoon. It will be blustery today with
westerly winds gusting up to 25 mph. A Canadian airmass moves in
for tonight and tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will struggle to get out
of the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the mid week
weather system that will move in Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning. A shortwave will move out across the central
Plains region Wednesday night. Short term and medium range models
indicate light precip will develop late Wednesday evening and
overnight. Forecast soundings suggest there will be some dry air
initially around 900 mb with the onset of this precip. The current
thinking is that wet bulbing will occur and drop the surface
temperatures to near freezing Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. This will allow for the precip to fall as light snow or
The 00z ECMWF and latest 06z NAM is a little more bullish with QPF
than the 00z GFS but all suggest a light QPF event. Minor
accumulations will be possible...maybe around an inch of light
snow. The overall message for Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning is there will be some light wintry weather in the area and
may have some impacts on travel early Thursday morning.
That system moves out during the day on Thursday and cloudy skies
will remain. The second system for Friday through Saturday morning
could be more interesting depending on the exact track and
strength of the shortwave trough moving through. The medium range
guidance along with the GFS and ECMWF have some differences in the
solutions. The ECMWF would suggest a track further southeast
bringing a better chance for light snow to the Ozarks. Will
mention the potential for minor accumulations possible Friday and Friday
night with the second system. Next weekend looks cold with
temperatures slightly below average. Just beyond this forecast
time...the 7 to 10 days long range model output looks like more
active weather possible just before Christmas.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014
Pilots can expect variable flight conditions today at area
terminals with periods of MVFR.
Lower IFR to lower MVFR ceilings will impact the Branson and
Springfield terminal this morning as low level moisture streams
north ahead of an approaching system.
A period of clearing is expected later this morning as winds veer
to the southwest.
Lower MVFR ceiling will return from the west this afternoon as a
cold front moves across the region. MVFR ceiling will likely
persist into tonight.
Gusty southerly surface winds will veer to the west and northwest
following the frontal passage this afternoon. Low level wind shear
will impact area terminals early this morning.