Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 290741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Mid level
clouds will decrease later tonight as a weak cold front passes
through the region. Surface winds will also shift around to the
northwest after sunrise.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann





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