Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Early this morning a stationary front extended from near Ft. Smith
Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel. Scattered showers and storms
have developed near Ft. Smith in zone of isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary with the aid of a 20 to 25 knot 850mb jet. these
were lifting slowly northward. Meanwhile, north of the front
areas of fog has formed over southern Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks. Short term models keep bulk of this activity south of the
area, but will likely see some showers across far southern
Missouri today and into south central Missouri this evening before
pushing eastward. Quiet weather then expected though much of the
overnight hours. However, next system pushes cold front into
Kansas late tonight and may push some showers/storms into
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri late tonight in broad
warm advection zone.

Temperatures will be on the uptick once again today with highs in
the mid to upper 80s and heat index readings in the lower to middle
90s, and perhaps upper 90s in areas west of Interstate 49.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Broad warm advection ahead of the next seasonally strong shortwave
tracking across the central Plains Wednesday will push cold front
into Kansas. Persistent southerly flow advecting low level moisture
northward will result in most unstable capes between 1500 to 2000
j/kg Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Deep layer
shear not overly impressive in the 20 to 30 knot range, but max
thetaE differences are on the order of 30K by early afternoon.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms, but at this point not
anticipating ant widespread severe weather. Associated cold front
pushes through the area late Wednesday night and pushes east of the
area Thursday morning.

A zonal to southwesterly flow looks to continue into the weekend,
with ridging beginning to build across southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks late in the weekend and early next week. Although
blend of models do show almost daily precipitation chances, feel
there will be quite a bit of dry time as well.

Temperatures look to remain in the middle to upper 80s for the most
part through the period, with dew points in the 60s and lower 70s
heat index values will be more typical of mid to late August in the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Fog/stratus redevelopment is expected over
southern MO over the next few hours, especially close to the
MO/AR border. KBBG will have the best chances of IFR cat
conditions. Already seeing a hint of some stratus/fog in that
area. Farther north and west toward KSGF and KJLN, the lower
clouds may have tougher time to form, but some fog is still
possible. Conditions will improve after 14z, but will be the
slowest to improve at KBBG.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
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