Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Plenty of sunshine being noted as the cold front that brought last
nights rain exits eastward and cold advection induced
stratocumulus this in the mid afternoon sun.

Main question this forecast period involves the potential for
patchy frost late tonight over the western CWA as winds become
light and variable toward morning under clear skies. Have lowered
overnight lows at or slightly below the coolest guidance which
would still keep the frost potential low.

With northwest flow aloft...a cool but climatologically near
normal day then is in store for Monday. Cold advection will have
ceased so other than the deeper valleys over south central MO the
threat for frost appears to be minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper flow to become zonal by midweek and then to a building
ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the
Friday. This will set up an extended warming well as a
week without precipitation as storm systems remain over the
northern tier of the nation.

Late in the week models generally agree in the development of a
deeper trough though the 12z run is a bit slower in bringing
rainfall into the area on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Band of MVFR associated with departing cold front moving off into
far southeast MO however cold advection induced stratocumulus
advecting southward through central MO. Trajectories suggest that
KSGF may see a brief MVFR ceiling later this afternoon
...otherwise VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast




SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Runnels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.